President Obama’s popularity is going down fast. According to Gallup, the President is especially unpopular in Wyoming (29%), Utah (34%), West Virginia (34%), Idaho (34%), Oklahoma (37%), Alaska (38%), Montana (38%), Arkansas (40%), Kentucky (40%), Tennessee (41%), New Hampshire (41%), Alabama (41%), and Missouri (41%). If you are running for House or Senate in any of these states, it may be time to start running away from President Obama’s unpopular ideas. More from Gallup:
During the first half of 2010, residents of Hawaii and the District of Columbia were most likely to approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. His lowest approval ratings came from Wyoming residents. All told, there is a 56 percentage-point gap between Obama’s highest and lowest state ratings.
So much for bringing this country together. The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote on the nomination of Elena Kagan to be Supreme Court justice today. The Senate is scheduled to swear in Carte Goodwin as Senator from West Virginia at 2:15, then vote on cloture at 2:30 on H.R.4213, Unemployment Insurance Extension. The House has 18 suspension votes scheduled for today.
The big issue for conservatives to watch today is the plummeting poll numbers nationwide for President Obama and his policies. In golf lingo, if the Gallup poll was a bogey, a poll released yesterday by Politico was a lost ball for the President. The Politico poll indicates that President Obama would lose his job to “The Republican Nominee” if an election were held today. Not a good place to be one year and a half into your presidency and a terrible place to be if you are promoting one of the President’s many unpopular ideas. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs should be yelling “FORE!” to Congressional Democrats, because the President has hitting some terrible tee shots for his party. Clearly, I watched too much golf this weekend.
On the issue of “how satisfied have you been with President Obama’s response to the oil spill,” 34% were satisfied and 61% were dissatisfied according to the Politico poll. The poll further indicated that the American people are deeply concerned about the economy (48%) to the exclusion of all other issues. No other issue even came close. As the economy stagnates, these poll numbers indicate that the President’s approval rating will also stagnate and go down.
One fascinating question pitted President Obama against an unnamed Republican nominee for President. In a generic ballot, the President received 37% versus 42% for “The Republican Candidate.” That is alarming. The silver lining that the Obama Administration will spin from this poll is that when Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, and Haley Barbour were named in the poll as the Republican nominee, Obama won. The problem with the latter poll numbers is that Obama did not get anywhere near 50% in the head to head battles. President Obama is in the political rough right now and he is going to have a hard time turning the economy around in a few months before the Fall elections, and for that matter, before the next Presidential election.
These poll numbers will impact the agenda for Congress. As the President becomes more unpopular or retains low poll numbers, there is no incentive for his allies in Congress to take one for the team. The President’s agenda from Global Warming to his foreign policy initiatives will be under high scrutiny and Congressional Democrats will be unwilling to bring up controversial issues. At some point, the Democrat masses on Capitol Hill will tell the White House enough is enough and order the President to focus 100% of his efforts in talking about his plan to turn around the economy. The Stimulus has proven to be an unmitigated Keynesian failure. The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are about to expire and if the President does not push for a continuation of these tax cuts, the economy may go into further malaise. President Obama’s inaction on these expiring tax cuts is, in effect, the Obama Tax Increases of 2011. Who would want to be running on the idea of tax increases this Fall?
As candidates see more and more poll numbers indicating the American people’s disappointment with the President, expect even liberal Democrats running for office to sprint away from public events with President Obama. We have already witnessed some candidates missing events with the President and you should expect more of that in the coming months. The bottom line is that President Obama’s policies are politically toxic for Democrats right now and if he does not right the ship quickly, he will pay a high political price.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
People *watch* golf?
Charles Cianfrocca (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 11:02AM EST (link)NT
“Get your hand out of my pocket. Ain’t nothin’ there that belongs to you.”
- Sonny Boy Williamson
My state Oklahoma
77redcounties Tuesday, July 20th at 11:04AM EST (link)you make me proud to be my adopted home state. Been here 45 years, a good place to be & our unemployment is among the lowest in the nation.
Thanks again Brian
Oklahoma. 77 counties, all red last election, only state in the union with not a single blue county. We are not only fly over, we are fly around.
The art of government is to make two-thirds of a nation pay all it possibly can pay for the benefit of the other third.
Voltaire
God bless Oklahoma...
ritaok Tuesday, July 20th at 11:54AM EST (link)Under this president particularly, Oklahoma has shown RED in their veins. There was a time when all the Sooner farmers were democrats, by knee jerk. There was never a time when Oklahoma let socialists roll over them. Conservatives in the state have had their work cut out for them to bring her into solid RED, but Obamatunist has helped, and GREAT state reps and senators! Except for the teachers. They have a cabal who are still a cloth cut from foreign thread thinking. Thanks, OK.
And now let's all promise...
Locked and Loaded (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 12:32PM EST (link)to do everything we can to make sure Oklahoma takes over Wyoming in this place of honor.
Wyoming...
jcincy Tuesday, July 20th at 11:12AM EST (link)I’ve never been to Wyoming. Perhaps it is time to leave the state of my birth, Ohio, and head west.
49% approval rating in Ohio. No wonder I get puzzled looks from time to time when I say Obama is the worst president in my lifetime. What a sad commentary on the apathetic, uninformed people of this country.
A quick, “Did you know, Obama blocked international aid to help clean up the spill in the Gulf of Mexico for over two months?” raises a few eyebrows.
People perish because of ignorance.
“Providence has given to our people the choice of their rulers, and it is the duty, as well as the privilege and interest of our Christian nation, to select and prefer Christians for their rulers.” — John Jay
Lindsey Graham voted for Kagan.
crassus (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 1:43PM EST (link)He previously voted for Sonia Sotomayor. He claims that she is very well qualified. In the case of Sotomayor she certainly had the right judicial credentials, even if she was a poor judge. However, even if your only concern for Supreme Court appointments is ‘qualifications’ Kagan still does not measure up. She has spent a little time helping Bill Clinton, 1 year as Solicitor General, and worked in academics. Zero years in private practice or as a judge (the best qualification). Kagan also seems to be further to the left than Sotomayor, although she also seems more intelligent. Graham, I think, is either clueless or he is just not a conservative in his heart anyway. The latter is more likely, in my judgement. Republican nominees have ALWAYS struggled to get through. There has not been a conservative nominee who didn’t get substantial opposition since Antonin Scalia in 1986- and that was at a time when there was only one conservative, Rehnquist. Conservative nominees will always be opposed. Remember Bork, Thomas, and Alito? Democrat nominees have never had strong opposition. The truth is, we were never going to stop Kagan, but we should not have given her any bipartisan credibility. I am surprised Ginsburg has not retired yet, but if she does in the next congress, and we have enough in the senate, we must block the next Obama appointment until 2013. That will be a test.
Analyzing the Galllup poll data.....
Nixons_The_One (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 1:51PM EST (link)This Gallup poll does give us some insight into how the 2012 election may shake out. Given that our electoral system is state-by-state, and not national, this is a better reading at Obama’s chances for re-election.
The 2012 election, as with any time the president is up for re-election, will be a referendum on the incumbent (assuming the GOP alternative is considered “acceptable” by those voting for/against the incumbent).
Taking these Gallup poll numbers, lets allocate the electoral votes the following way:
Solid Obama: any state where Obama has a > +15% approval / disapproval
Trending Obama: any state where Obama has > 50% approval
Toss-Up: Obama approval rating either 48% or 49% (ie, president is below 50% approval rating)
Trending GOP: Obama approval rating below 48% (ie, outside margin of error for 50% approval), but has positive approval / disapproval
Solid GOP: Obama has negative approval / disapproval
This gives the following tally:
Solid Obama: 151
Trending Obama: 55
Toss-Up: 112
Trending GOP: 93
Solid GOP: 131
Weighting both the more recent presidential elections, and recent statewide elections results, I’d say the only state in the “Trending Obama” tally which one may expect to switch would be New Jersey (Chris Christie)….. the only state in the “Trending GOP” which may go Obama would be Florida. Assuming neither of those happen, we are starting the 2012 cycle with:
Obama: 206
GOP: 224
Toss-Up: 112
So the battleground is in these 10 states, and for electoral purposes, the GOP needs to consider how to frame their “alternative” to Obama here:
Minnesota (10 EV)
Ohio (19)
Colorado (9)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
North Carolina (15)
Iowa (6)
Maine (4)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Interesting analysis for sure
BA Cyclone (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 3:26PM EST (link)With 270 needed and if we consider 224 already in the bag, we only need an additional 46 to win the WH.
Of those polled in the field, I think Palin, Romney, and Pawlenty are certainly in the race for ’12.
I think Ohio will swing back to (R) this cycle, and I am guessing NC. If Pawlenty is nominated I think he could well bring (steal, considering the 2009 A/D number) them along too – that is 44 of 46 needed.
NV, CO may also swing red in ’12, VA is possible…
There is “a lot of green” between here and there, however.
“If Congress can do whatever in their discretion can be done by money, and will promote the General Welfare, the Government is no longer a limited one, possessing enumerated powers, but an indefinite one, subject to particular exceptions.” — James Madison
“Electing Republicans who don’t have the courage of their convictions may be easier in some circumstances, but it won’t save our country.” — Jim DeMint
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Excellent Comments
Brian Darling (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 2:59PM EST (link)Graham can’t claim that he is 100% in favor of the 2nd Amendment if he is supporting a Supreme Court nominee who will vote to gut that individual right applied to all the states. The advise and consent constitutional function of the Senate should not serve as a rubber stamp for Presidential nominees to any position.
If you take into account
itrytobenice (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 3:48PM EST (link)the fact that blacks still approve of him in the range of 90%, and discount that approval because it is apparently due to nothing other than the color of his skin, his approval rating is closer to 30% than 40%.
And blacks aren’t going to come out and vote for Blanche Lincoln or Robin Carnahan because BO is black. People are rejecting his extremely liberal ideas and the people in the D party are having to stand by and watch while he verifies all the accusations the Rs have been throwing at the Ds for all these years.
They’ll *never* escape the tax and spend label now. Nor will it be easy to convince Americans that they aren’t interested in controlling your life and aren’t in the pocket of the unions.
The die is cast and now the only question is how bad is the damage going to be for the D party. Well, there’s one other question: Is the stupid party still as stupid as before or are the conservatives finally going to get their chance.
Proper grammar saves lives.
Let’s eat Grandma.
Let’s eat, Grandma.