Taking Stock


Well, before we start all the recriminations and the strategerizing, or even the post-mortems, lets just look at what we’re left with; what do we hold from which to plan a return?

The picture here this morning looks surprisingly like the picture in the aftermath of the 1992 election.

Senator Obama appears to have won the popular vote by about five points – it will probably be closer to six when all the votes are totaled. He has won somewhere between 349 and 376 electoral votes, depending on the outcome in Nebraska’s third congressional district, Missouri, and North Carolina. Using present vote totals, Obama would take North Carolina out of that group, to finish with 364 electoral votes.

In 1992, Clinton beat Bush by 5.3 percentage points in the popular vote, and finished with 370 electoral votes. Yes, there was a big difference – the presence of Ross Perot – but Clinton almost certainly would have won with or without Perot, and probably by very similar margins in both categories. Bottom line is that Democrats won in 1992 presidential just about what they won in the 2008 presidential.

If fact, even the electoral college map looks quite similar; depending on who wins North Carolina and Missouri, between just nine and eleven states will differ from 1992 to 2008. Most of those were extremely close this year, too, notably Montana and Georgia, which went Democratic in 1992 and narrow Republican in 2008, and Florida, Indiana, and Virginia, which went Republican in 1992 and barely Democratic in 2008.

After the 1992 election, the Democrats held a 56-44 edge in senate seats. After 2008, including the two independents (Lieberman and Sanders) who caucus Democrat, and assuming Republican margins in Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Minnesota hold, the Democrats will hold a 56-44 edge in the Senate.

After the 1992 election, the Democrats held a 259-176 edge in the House. After 2008, it currently looks like the Democrats will hold about 252 seats in the House – there are a few races still hanging that could add a couple more seats to their margin.

After the 1992 election, the Democrats held a 27-21 advantage in governorships, with two liberal independents. After the 2008 elections, the Democrats hold a 29-21 edge in governorships.

In short, the party split in federal offices and governorships as we enter 2009 will be almost exactly what it was entering 1993.

Of course, there are differences – the Republicans actually gained 9 House seats and broke even in the Senate races in 1992, for example. But my simple point is that Republicans, though we took a thumping last night and are clearly in minority status, retain a considerable base from which to mount a comeback – indeed, a base almost identical to that held two years before the smashing election victories of 1994. And last night was not the complete wipe-out some feared. Most people thought the Democrats would win at least 57 or 58 senate seats. Most predictions I saw had the Democrats gaining closer to 30 House seats, not 20. A slightly better showing in Washington and North Carolina and the GOP could have actually gained a governorship last night. I haven’t been able to compare all the state legislative results, but again, it wasn’t a total blow out last night: Republicans took control of legislative chambers in Oklahoma, in Tennessee, maybe North Carolina. I don’t know where all else we had bright spots, but I’m sure their were many – for example, efforts to target two GOP Justices on the Ohio Supreme Court failed miserably, and the Court remains 7-0 Republican.

We’ll save for later discussion of how to best go about recreating a 1994 type win for 2010. Obviously, there are underlying facts that make 2008 different from 2009, some for the better, some for worse. But for now, just use these numbers to take heart. We’ve been here before, and come roaring back.


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Excellent points Brad, but...

Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 12:55PM EST (link)

We do need to remember a few differences.

One, 1992 was a redistricting year and after 40 years in the House majority, the Ds were ancient. Lots more new blood this time, which is both good and bad.

Two, we won most of the close Senate races in 2004, so we’re very unlikely to retake the Senate in 2010; the best we can hope for is maybe a 2-seat pickup or so and defend our own seats, before the lower-hanging fruit comes up in 2012 and 2014.

“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill

I know

Brad Smith (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 1:24PM EST (link)

I know all that. It was clear, I thought, that such analysis was not my purpose in this post.

Brad Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault Designated Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
Capital University website
Center for Competitive Politics website

Senate 2010

Mayhem (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 1:29PM EST (link)

I agree Dan, but mostly because we will still be defending more seats in the 2010 cycle than the Democrats will be (19 seats to 15). Also, I don’t really see a whole lot of opportunities among the blue seats that are available. Reid and Salazar seem the most likely to flip, if any. The Senate is definitely a 2012 game.

James Madison, Jim DeMint, Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan… You get the picture.

 
 
 

Is it me?

Lamplighter331 (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 1:40PM EST (link)

Is it me, or could our best advantage be Nancy Pelosi and her cohorts? They’re beholden to a large coalition of constituencies that will all expect the piper to be paid and she can’t help herself.

Perhaps she’s 2010 Jim Wright (only her seat is about as invioable as they come) in terms of demeanor and arrogance.

Reid bends with the wind, but he’s a soft spoken blowhard in the Tom Daschle mold.

The bottom line is that the similarities in the Dems’ leadership may provide an impetus for action, in that, they will make proposals and put forth legislation that will force the hands of the electorate a la Universal Healthcare, 1993.

“I hope we once again have reminded people that man is not free unless government is limited.”
–Ronald Reagan, Farewell Address–

“People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.”

—George Orwell—

 

Brad nice, but

Jack (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 2:27PM EST (link)

You forgot thew two largest events of 1994 cycle. Congress changed the rules on taking the campaign money home with them. That led to the largest collection of Democrats to retire in one cycle in the history of the House.

Also due to the retirements we were able to be on a par with the Democrats in money. That is not going to happen in 2010. The Democrats have many young turks and their coffers will be full. The senior members of their party are all liberal versus from 1964 to 1994 they were mainly blue dogs.

This is a whole new world we face.

Jack

“If at age 20 you are conservative you have no heart. It at age 30 you are liberal you have no brains.” Sir Winston Churchill

Again, not my point

Brad Smith (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 2:37PM EST (link)

nt

Brad Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault Designated Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
Capital University website
Center for Competitive Politics website

 
 

Enjoy their disappointment

ed_ga Wednesday, November 5th at 2:54PM EST (link)

after 4-6 months “O”s approval ratings will be where Bush’s are now. They will start declining in Feb when those house payments and rent come due and they still have to pay them. They will feel lied to when there is no free gas and housing. We just need to prepare for HIGHER taxes on us, do what ever is legal to keep as much of your money as you can.I was talking(mostly listing to him ) to a O supporter early today and a nice quote from him” everthing in the country and world will be great within 60 days”. My reply “NICE”

 

It Won't Happen Overnight

DavidSage (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 2:55PM EST (link)

I think this country unfortunately needs to go through a few cycles of liberal Democrats running everything.

No matter what happens, it’s just human nature that people get sick of the party in charge no matter what. One party control just doesn’t last long. Too many voters think that if their life isn’t perfect, it must be the fault of the people in charge.

My guess is, the true “deep” Red States in this country will quickly throw the Democrats overboard, and swing back Republican. If your a Democrat in a Red State with Nancy Pelosi and Obama running the show, you’re most likely toast. This includes the entire Old South, and rural midwest. The moderate “blue dog” Democrats will quickly be replaced by conservative Republicans.

I think some of the purple states will gradually tilt back to the Republicans, like Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio. We won’t sweep these states, but we’ll be much more competitive and have a slight advantage.

The blue states will start to turn purple, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. We’ll start to have a half-decent chance if we recruit good candidates that fit these constituencies.

New England will be solid blue and hostile to Republicans for a long time, with the exception of New Hampshire being purple.

All of this is not going to happen in one election cycle, this is a rebuilding cycle in our party.

I have a feeling the public is going to turn on Obama real quick. This economy is not going to bounce back anytime soon, both in the financial markets and the housing markets. The world is still a dangerous place, and people trust Republicans more on National Security issues.

Obama has cast himself as a savior for this nation, and the American people have shown how fickle they are.

 

David

kyle8 (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 3:17PM EST (link)

you said:No matter what happens, it’s just human nature that people get sick of the party in charge no matter what. One party control just doesn’t last long.

I agree, but I said the same thing here about a year ago and was excoriated for being too negative. I only bring it up because our own side can sometimes be as blind as the liberals.

We screwed up bad, real bad, and now the Dems get the chance to govern, and there is a slim possibility that they actually do a good job, (yeah I can’t say that with a straight face).

I don’t think the people are fickle, I think they are both deluded, and or too young to really remember Carter.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

 

Learning from Clinton

EastCoastObserver Wednesday, November 5th at 3:57PM EST (link)

Clinton lost all those Dem advantages within 2 years because the Clintons’ are divisive politicians. I think Obama is going to learn from the mistakes of Pres. Clinton’s first 2 years in office. There is talk of Obama wanting Dick Lugar as Sec. of State (although he has so far declined, but things tend to change when actually offered) and Sen. Hagel to also have a role in a new administration. I think he is going to go the Reagan route and work with both sides. He knows that letting things go crazy-left will mean defeat and I don’t think that is really in his nature. He tends to be pretty good with listening to both sides of a position before jumping to a conclusion.

Republicans need to find out where their headed and not create the “circular firing squad” that was being whispered about a few weeks ago. I think that is what they are doing this week. Isn’t there some meeting of the conservative/republican higher ups?

Honestly, Would It Have Mattered?

DavidSage (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 3:57PM EST (link)

The Republican Party made a lot of mistakes, but I don’t think there was much we could have done to prevent this.

I hear a lot of people say the reason Americans abandoned the Republican Party was because of spending.

I have no doubt that hurt us some, but do you really think someone voted Democrat instead because they thought the Democrats would be more thrifty with taxpayer dollars?

And John McCain was the most pure Republicans I can think of when it came to his opposition against wasteful spending. He made it a major theme of his campaign, and it seemed to do absolutely no good.

The biggest reason why Obama is in the White House, and the Democrats run the show is the housing market overheated and fell apart, and took the entire economy down with it. The person in charge always gets blamed, and the Republicans for all intents and purposes were running the show for the last 8 years. People also just get sick of an Administration after back to back Presidential terms, and pull the lever for the other party.

Just like how every economy has cycles, every political party does also. The pendulum has swung the other way, and I have no doubt it will swing back our way if we play our cards right.

you might be right, but I doubt it.

kyle8 (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 4:05PM EST (link)

If he really is a somewhat moderate consensus builder, we can forget getting back into power for a long time. He will muddle through like Clinton did and have huge popularity.

But I suspect that it will be far left economic nostrums full steam ahead and Katy bar the door. In which case the economy totally tanks.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

look at the elections.....

Jack (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 4:36PM EST (link)

Look at who voted for the bailout and votes against it and you will see the winners and losers. This cycle was easy to decipher.

Jack

“If at age 20 you are conservative you have no heart. It at age 30 you are liberal you have no brains.” Sir Winston Churchill

eh...

EastCoastObserver Wednesday, November 5th at 5:04PM EST (link)

I don’t think so. I really think he is going to be too smart for that. He’s surrounding himself with some really good economic advisers (Volcker, Buffet etc.) and I think if told that a far-left plan will be too risky I think he will be pragmatic about his policies.

Looking for renewal in the wrong places

JackinMichigan (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 5:09PM EST (link)

“We’ll save for later discussion of how to best go about recreating a 1994 type win for 2010.”

Before that discussion, there should be one about whether “we” should bother, given the ultimate outcome of 1994. How long did it take then before the GOP began backsliding?

I’m not just being snarky, but am suggesting that parties will not be the source from which real change and reform arise. Let’s be honest about what the real problem is: An inbred, self-serving, self-perpetuating political class has supplanted representative government and escaped the control of the people. Just electing more Repubs who are themselves members of that class will not bring salvation.

new blood

kyle8 (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 5:17PM EST (link)

we need new blood, fresh young blood, the blood of all races and sexes as long as they are conservative.

I sound like a vampire.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

It wasn't just the Housing Market...

CJB68 Wednesday, November 5th at 5:18PM EST (link)

The biggest reason why Obama is in the White House, and the Democrats run the show is the housing market overheated and fell apart, and took the entire economy down with it

   A lot of that got started with the Fed raising interest rates beforehand.  This caused the rates on those subprime mortgages to go up, with many of the irresponsible people who were using them for new toys getting bitten.

   On top of that, we had the OPEC oil production freeze and speculator hysteria that turned the crude prices on HIGH, effectively creating an economic downturn as fuel and plastics costs were likewise raised.  I’ve been told that the credit and mortgage crunch wouldn’t have been as bad if there weren’t $4 or $5 per gallon in gasoline prices on top of that.  All that added costs in transportation fuel and plastics manufacture had to get added to the price of food, clothing and other items on which petroleum products are dependent.

   Add in the media playing up the panic and generations of what I now call “house pets” raised on MTV and public education and we had the makings of a perfect electoral storm.  Too many people have been brainwashed by the Socialists within our mass media and academia to become little wards for “Big Daddy” government.  Welcome to Soviet America, peoples…

Delusional and Arrogant.  The Modern Democratic Philosophy.

Perhaps?

CJB68 Wednesday, November 5th at 5:25PM EST (link)

   Someone did say something along the lines of “turning the spicket up slowly” earlier.  That would be like the anecdote about putting the frog in a boiling pot versus having the frog in a lukewarm pot and gradually turning up the heat.

   however, we have just heard that Representative Rahm Emmanuel was just tagged to become Chief of Staff, which some say doesn’t bode well for the composition of Obama’s cabinet.  Rumors are already circulating about Senator John Kerry actively campaigning for Secretary of State.

   There goes that fear I have of the Socialist-Dems letting this victory of theirs go to their heads…

Delusional and Arrogant.  The Modern Democratic Philosophy.

Know who'd make a fantastic SecDef?

DRP Wednesday, November 5th at 5:32PM EST (link)

John McCain.

This election already has some bizzarely close references to the last two seasons of the West Wing. Let’s end it on that message.

Buffet is a good investor but is a big tax and spender

kyle8 (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 5:40PM EST (link)

And Volcker nearly caused another great depression all by himself. These are not good advisors, they are economic illiterates. (Yes I just called a former chairman of the Fed and the worlds richest man economic illiterates.)

I just call em like I see em, these men are stuck in a Keynesian time warp as thought the last thirty years didn’t happen.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

Whither the Republican Party-Obama victory a pyrrhic victory? Cosmetic politics wins the day

john_barry Wednesday, November 5th at 6:38PM EST (link)

There is no denying the scale of Barrack Obamas victory in terms of Electoral College votes. However his share of the popular vote is 52%. It is hardly a wringing endorsement. McCain/Palin secured 46% in the teeth of an economic tsunami, which struck their campaign in September. In addition McCain /Palin had to fight against efforts to tie them to the unpopular Bush presidency. Sarah Palin was subjected to a vicious campaign by Democrats and their acolytes in the liberal media. Her appearance, her dress sense, her character, and her family were shredded in one of the ugliest witch-hunts ever witnessed in American politics. 70% of media coverage was favourable to Obama. CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC,MSNBC favoured Obama/Biden.

John McCain was painted by Democrats as out of touch. His age and health were called into question. Obama spent 600 million dollars to secure his election-a spending splurge unparalleled in US presidential history. The Obama campaign registered millions of Hispanics and African Americans. It pushed early voting to the limits.

Obama continuously emphasized a middle income tax cut. Each speech was peppered with references to change. All very nebulous, all very soothing. Music to the ears of young voters. And yet he barely broke 50%- driven by a favourable gale of political circumstances. The McCain/Palin performance is amazing in the teeth of such unfavourable circumstances.

The message is clear. The GOP is defeated but unbroken. The internal contradictions in Obama’s policy positions will come back to haunt him. His promises of a middle income tax cuts cannot be fulfilled by rational economic means. Of course he can increase the deficit to fund tax cuts. Any such decision will court an economic catastrophe. He will of course increase capital gains and dividend taxes. Businesses face a tax hike. This is a recipe for disaster.
In addition he is beholden to workers in states such as Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania et al. He has promised to renegotiate NAFTA. He has promised increased protectionism. He has neatly conveyed the message to workers in old declining industries that he is their saviour. Such workers will soon become disillusioned as Obama’s promises fail to deliver.

The GOP must fiercely oppose increased spending plans of Obama and the Socialist/Liberal Democrat controlled Congress. Republicans must go back to basics and defend taxpayers. They must virulently oppose pork barrel projects. Bailouts must cease. They must learn from the organizational efforts of Obama. Efforts must be made to win back Hispanic voters.
By 2010 Democrats will have controlled Congress for four years. The electorate will vent its spleen on the big spenders.
By 2012 it is likely that the Democrats will have controlled Congress for six years whilst a Democrat will have held the presidency for four years. Obama and his friends in Congress will have no place to hide.
The GOP has excellent presidential material coming through. Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal amongst others are likely to seek a presidential nomination.

Finally there should be no infighting.

john barry

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

McCain lost because of

neum432 (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 6:57PM EST (link)

the economy and GWB poor favorability. This was just unfinished business from 2006. GOP needs to come back to life as a conservative party and find a leader who can articulate the conservative agenda.

“To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson

 

Why did you loose?.

dsteiger Wednesday, November 5th at 7:01PM EST (link)

Just looking @ th McCain crowd @ his concession speech spoke volumes…. The GOP looks Old, Stale, Crusty and out of touch. Can they win without Limbaugh, Savage, Coulter, Club For Growth, Rove?. If you lay all the cards on the table in a fair comparision then the Dem’s win. I used to be a Republican but they became to NUT JOB / Religious for my taste and then became more corrupt than one could have invisioned….And then Palin, the Dem’s could not have wished for a better pick!!!!! She ralied the “BASE” but blew it for McCain no matter how you spin it, what is with the “BASE” liking dumb people??? If McCain had Tom Ridge or someone moderate the outcome may have been different.
The GOP needs to wake up.

Well, a sure way to escape corruption

TheKent Wednesday, November 5th at 7:06PM EST (link)

is to jump to the Dem side. cough

Formerly known as Poli_Bri (registered January 08).

 
 

Speaking of "taking stock" . . .

CSUFBomb (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 7:17PM EST (link)

…486 down in day one of The One. 9,139 to go. Heckuva job, Barry.


“We want great men who, when fortune frowns, will not be discouraged.” – Colonel Henry Knox

it was not Palin's fault

neum432 (Diary) Wednesday, November 5th at 7:37PM EST (link)

McCain was doomed to failure just like any other R running against the Obamamedia 600 million dollar machine. Maybe the Democrat party would be a better fit for you, dsteiger! Say hello to the comrades for me.

“To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson

Spare Me....

dsteiger Thursday, November 6th at 9:56AM EST (link)

Spare me. Your party is in shambles and your “A” Typical comment speaks volumes, you rubes chant “Palin” and we have a President who was Havard Law President and VP who teaches Constitutional Law go figure. The WORLD is now once again looking to the US, Bush ruined what he was given on a silver plater after 911 and blew it. Save your cheap and childish “Comarade” Socialist” BS….YOUR party has almost bankrupt this country, went to war on a lie ( Over 4,000 dead us soldiers and 60,000? dead civilians, not very pro life ).
Yeah you bet the GOP has some soul searching to do, assuming it has any soul left. If it relies on Rove / Coulter / Limbaugh stench then the GOP will fall into obscurity that it deserves for years to come, hopefully the moderate base will take over and ditch the NUT jobs, but I doubt it.

Spare Me....

dsteiger Thursday, November 6th at 9:56AM EST (link)

Spare me. Your party is in shambles and your “A” Typical comment speaks volumes, you rubes chant “Palin” and we have a President who was Havard Law President and VP who teaches Constitutional Law go figure. The WORLD is now once again looking to the US, Bush ruined what he was given on a silver plater after 911 and blew it. Save your cheap and childish “Comarade” Socialist” BS….YOUR party has almost bankrupt this country, went to war on a lie ( Over 4,000 dead us soldiers and 60,000? dead civilians, not very pro life ).
Yeah you bet the GOP has some soul searching to do, assuming it has any soul left. If it relies on Rove / Coulter / Limbaugh stench then the GOP will fall into obscurity that it deserves for years to come, hopefully the moderate base will take over and ditch the NUT jobs, but I doubt it.