First, if I was Rubio camp, would not be happy about these numbers.

Now, no real campaigning outside the base has taken place. So its natural many Dems are jumping to Crist, but as the partisan divide heats up closer, it would be assumed the Dems would go home to Meek.

If Greene wins the Dem primary, I do not know. From reading the news (for what its worth), Meek campaign is a big ZERO.

Crist flips, will be pointed out in due time.

I’m frankly appalled that this race seems to be getting so out of hand so early.

Money must be spent *now* to define Crist before it’s too late. (Rubio has problems of his own, so we need to get out in front of Crist *right now*.)

Now, granted, this is only one poll, that I suspect is coming from a pro-Crist group.

But for Rubio to be that much under 40% is appalling, and is a clear warning sign that this race is getting away from us.

If the NRSC doesn’t start carpet-bombing in ads in FL in the month of July to properly define Crist, I fear it’ll be too late, and we’ll lose this race to guaranteed Obama-backer Crist.

And, frankly, there’s just no excuse for this.

(I’ll make a prediction now – if Crist wins this race, Cornyn will not be heading the NRSC next cycle…)

at least temporarily. That said, any polls in a Tampa paper are suspect.

1. It is a poll of registered voters instead of likely voters.

2. Crist has name and reputation recognition. The Florida economy is doing fairly well and as governor Crist gets the credit. Unfortunately for Florida and the US, Crist is likely to shift to the left as a Senator vs his current positions as Gov. It will be very hard to convince swing voters who currently support Crist that he is not to be trusted.

3. Crist has the support of Dems who see Meeks as less and less likely to challenge either Crist or Rubio. Unfortunately as Meeks falls further and further behind more and more Dems will strategically switch to Crist as he becomes the unofficial Dem candidate. Liberals and Dems would rather see a squishy independant if they cannot have their flaming liberal.

The key for Rubio is the swing vote as explained in point 2. He has to work a strategy to out Crist as a flip flopper. Rubio has got to highlight detailed issues. Crist will continue to run as a vaguely anti-establishment but he will avoid taking any controversial stands.

Crist knew he had a chance to win this thing. That is why hit went Independant. Crist has the good fortune of being the Governor of Florida right now. He can use that position to create a positive news cycle. Rubio needs to be more than “the more conservative choice”. He needs to give the voters a reason to vote for him and not Crist.

Rubio needs to trash Crist relentlessly for the next few months. Continue to align Crist with Obama’s unpopular policies. Don’t let Crit get away with portraying himself as the “Independant problem solver”. Crist is a liberal, plain and simple.

Even Rasmussen has consistently had Crist at 60 percent approval among likely voters.

Add that to the fact that Florida’s Republicans are less conservative than most and Democrats know their candidate has no chance, and I suspect Crist’s numbers will only go up.