We’ve all seen cartoons and comedies where people hilariously use colanders to bail water out of sinking boats. It’s funny because we know the folly of using the wrong tools to accomplish our objectives.
Common sense tells us most of the time. But not all questions are that simple. For some, research and experimentation is required, especially if the problem is new or very large. You should try several things and see which works best. The next time you want to accomplish that particular objective you know what works best.
This works for almost everyone. Except politicians. Mostly Democratic politicians but they are joined, of late, by so many Republicans it’s clear that politicians in general lack the sense to pound sand in a rat hole.
When FDR assumed power in the midst of the Depression he increased Government spending, instituted Entitlements and increased the Government’s control of huge portions of American Life. For years he was credited with defeating the Great Depression. Government Spending and increased taxes to finance that spending were seen as the best tool for Economic Stimulus. But we have a little more evidence today than before. So much so that many current Economists say not only did FDR’s programs not pull us out of the Depression, they deepened and prolonged it! With more evidence comes new conclusions. There is now sufficient data available that Economists are not completely convinced The New Deal was the engine of Economic Stimulation it is feted to be.
There is one option for Economic Growth for which there is little question as to its effectiveness – Tax Cuts. Democrats routinely refer to the 1980s as “The Decade of Greed” due to the enormous growth in the Economy. The numbers for the Lower and Middle Class gains are misrepresented to maintain class envy and warfare. But the Reagan Tax Cuts enacted after the ravages of the Carter years produced the very Economic growth and stimulus the current Administration says it wants. The New Deal? Not so much.
The average annual growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) from 1981 to 1989 was 3.2 percent per year … includ[ing] the recession of the early 1980s … and the seven expansion years, 1983-89. During the economic expansion alone, the economy grew by a robust annual rate of 3.8 percent. By the end of the Reagan years, the American economy was almost one-third larger than it was when they began.
… Real median household income rose by $4,000 in the Reagan years–from $37,868 in 1981 to $42,049 in 1989 …
From 1981 through 1989 the U.S. economy produced 17 million new jobs, or roughly 2 million new jobs each year. …
What happened to all that money? What did we do with all that prosperity? As they are doing today, politicians spent it as if there were no tomorrow. Enormous increases in Tax Revenue to the Government were squandered by a Congress controlled by Democrats.
The budget deficit exploded in the 1980s. … in 1981, the budget deficit was $101 billion (in 1987 dollars) and 2.7 percent of GDP. In 1983 it peaked at $236 billion and 6.3 percent of GDP. By the time Reagan left office in 1989, however, it had fallen to $141 billion and 2.9 percent of GDP.
The national debt (public debt) in real 1987 dollars doubled from $1,004 billion in 1981 to $2,028 billion in 1989. As a share of GDP, the debt increased from 27 percent to 42 percent …
Nominal federal revenues doubled in the 1980s from $517 billion to $1.031 trillion. From 1981 to 1989 real federal revenues climbed by 20 percent.
Even income tax revenues grew substantially in the 1980s. In 1981 income tax receipts totaled $347 billion; in 1989 they totaled $549 billion, a 58 percent increase. In fact, income tax collections grew only slightly slower in the 1980s than in the 1990s despite income tax rate reductions in the Reagan years and increases in the Bush-Clinton years. Real income tax revenues rose by 16.3 percent from 1982 to 1989 after the top income tax rate had been reduced from 70 percent to 50 percent in 1983, and then to 28 percent in 1986.
The federal budget was not cut under Reagan. In fact, it was 69 percent larger when Reagan left office than when he entered it – 22 percent larger in real terms.
Even profligate spending could not derail the prosperity Tax Cuts generated. Lest there be any doubt about Tax Cuts, consider the Reagan Administration did not preside over the largest rate of Economic growth in the 20th Century. First place goes to JFK’s administration wherein “… income tax rate cuts of 30 percent that were enacted in 1964 generated several years of 5 percent annual real growth.”
One can whine, moan, wriggle, squirm, spin, lie, deny, obfuscate and anything else you like. The plain truth is Government Spending is not a reliable means for Economic Stimulus. Even if it works a little, it is not the best option. That task is best accomplished by Tax Cuts.
Barack Obama knows this. He may be many things, but stupid he is not. For all his talk of Economic Growth, he does not truly desire it. The less of the Economy he controls, the less the people need him. He does not want Economic Growth, he wants growth in Government dependence. He will allow sufficient Economic growth to finance the Government handouts which keep him in power and not a cent more. If what you want is Economic Growth, you do what produces it. If you don’t you are either stupid or lying and we’ve ruled out stupid.
The question now is, what are we going to do about it? What can we do about it?
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
Tax increases also occurred under Reagan
ModerateIN Thursday, April 9th at 3:15PM EST (link)http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett200310290853.asp
“Reagan may have resisted calls for tax increases, but he ultimately supported them. In 1982 alone, he signed into law not one but two major tax increases. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) raised taxes by $37.5 billion per year and the Highway Revenue Act raised the gasoline tax by another $3.3 billion.
According to a recent Treasury Department study, TEFRA alone raised taxes by almost 1 percent of the gross domestic product, making it the largest peacetime tax increase in American history. An increase of similar magnitude today would raise more than $100 billion per year.
In 1983, Reagan signed legislation raising the Social Security tax rate. This is a tax increase that lives with us still, since it initiated automatic increases in the taxable wage base. As a consequence, those with moderately high earnings see their payroll taxes rise every single year.
In 1984, Reagan signed another big tax increase in the Deficit Reduction Act. This raised taxes by $18 billion per year or 0.4 percent of GDP. A similar-sized tax increase today would be about $44 billion.
The Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 raised taxes yet again. Even the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which was designed to be revenue-neutral, contained a net tax increase in its first 2 years. And the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 raised taxes still more.”
I’m not trying to say that the increases were Reagan’s idea (neither does the linked article). But they happened, and you can’t give all the credit for economic growth to tax cuts.
Forgot to add...
ModerateIN Thursday, April 9th at 3:20PM EST (link)Another factor that stimulated the 80′s growth involved Fed Chairman Volcker. The federal funds rate was almost 20% in 1981, and Volcker slashed these rates to under 9% by the end of 1982 (and they went as low as 6% in 1986).
True ...
Blue_Collar_Muse (Diary) Thursday, April 9th at 3:32PM EST (link)But Reagan’s tax cuts went into effect in October of 1981, a full year before the first Fed cut. Reagan’s second tax cut was in 1986, same year your Fed cuts were at their lowest.
Seems to me you can make the argument that the Fed was doing its thing in response to the Tax Cuts and not as a Economic Leader doing what was needed to drive interest rates down and private spending and investment up.
When the Economy began to rebound, those high Fed rates were no longer necessary. Apply “Ad hoc ergo procter hoc” to this won’t necessarily fly.
Blue Collar Muse
Smaller Government! Lower Taxes! Stronger Defense! More Liberty! Complete Transparency!
I can't give all the credit to Tax Cuts?
Blue_Collar_Muse (Diary) Thursday, April 9th at 3:27PM EST (link)Why not? You didn’t provide any evidence that there was another factor at work that accounted for it. Are you saying that the money raised by the taxes you mentioned is somehow a factor in producing the growth the 1980s saw?
If anything, you demonstrated how effective the Tax Cuts were by pointing out specific instances of Government Spending – as you point out, not called for by Reagan but signed by him – that his Tax Cuts funded and STILL managed to perform in an outstanding fashion.
The best idea for Economic Growth is a combination of Tax Cuts AND Spending Cuts. We all know that. But Congress cannot bring itself to do that. That is, in large measure, why the GOP was turned out after a time in the majority. Not because they enacted GOP ideals but because they enacted Democratic Party ideals and enough on the Right were rightly disappointed by it they refused to back them for another try.
But the central premise of my diary, which you have done nothing to refute, is that Tax Cuts are the best tool to use if your end result is Economic Stimulation. Until you can show me another credible factor for the growth of the 80s, especially after the malaise of the Carter years, I can and will “give all the credit for economic growth to tax cuts.”
Blue Collar Muse
Smaller Government! Lower Taxes! Stronger Defense! More Liberty! Complete Transparency!
Not properly worded on my part.
ModerateIN Thursday, April 9th at 4:31PM EST (link)Saying what you can or can’t do was stupid, and unnecessary for this discussion.
“But Reagan’s tax cuts went into effect in October of 1981, a full year before the first Fed cut. Reagan’s second tax cut was in 1986, same year your Fed cuts were at their lowest.”
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html
The federal funds rate went through a number of gradual (1/2 point to 1 point) decreases starting in November of 1981.
If you were looking for a polar opposite viewpoint to oppose, sorry. My viewpoint is that monetary and fiscal policy led to economic growth in the 1980′s. Nowhere did I say that tax cuts did nothing, or that monetary policy was THE tool that led to growth.
But if you would like tax cuts to take credit for everything, then why was growth in real investment during the 80′s less than half it was during the 90′s (during He Who Shall Not Be Named).
Or…”In fact, income tax collections grew only slightly slower in the 1980s than in the 1990s despite income tax rate reductions in the Reagan years and increases in the Bush-Clinton years. Real income tax revenues rose by 16.3 percent from 1982 to 1989″
Why would you or the Cato Institute say “slightly”, yet not offer comparative numbers? After adjusting for inflation, income tax revenues from 1982 to 1989 rose 16.5 percent, while from 1990 to 1997 they rose 24 percent. Not exactly a “slight” difference.
You say that tax cuts are the ONLY way to economic growth. I would dispute that.
I did not say ...
Blue_Collar_Muse (Diary) Thursday, April 9th at 8:57PM EST (link)Tax Cuts are the only way to economic growth. I said they were the best way.
Further, if the largest point you can find to dispute is Cato’s use of the word “slightly” to describe what you say, without citation, is an 8 point spread, then that makes the arguments Cato brings pretty authoritative, especially given the meticulous citations they provide.
The ultimate point, however, is your statement that “monetary and fiscal policy led to economic growth in the 1980’s”. I agree 100%. And the foundation of that policy was Tax Cuts. Without them, the results seen would not have been different from other bland growth seen in other times and may have been a lot worse.
My entire point was that Obama is not looking to generate average growth but phenomenal growth to meet the crisis looming over the country. General economic policy, apart from Tax Cuts, have not historically produced that. What Obama wants is a repeat of the “Decade of Greed” with all of its excess wealth generation. That isn’t going to happen via Economic Policy as usual.
Blue Collar Muse
Smaller Government! Lower Taxes! Stronger Defense! More Liberty! Complete Transparency!