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By Jeff Emanuel Posted in 2008 | Democrats | George W. Bush | John McCain — Comments (22) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Clearly a seal has been opened, and a rider has leapt astride his apocalyptic steed, because I am about to make a post in slight agreement with former Clinton staffer Sid Blumenthal.

From U.S. News's Washington Whispers blog (via Pejman):

Sidney Blumenthal, a former senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and strategist for Hillary Clinton’s Democratic presidential campaign, went “off message” (his words) today with a warning to his party: Don’t run against GOP nominee John McCain by painting him as Bush III, because he’s not.

Bucking the Democratic National Committee’s talking points that characterize a potential McCain administration as tantamount to a third Bush term, Blumenthal told our Liz Halloran that running on that strategy in the fall would be a mistake.

“I understand people’s political reasons for doing that,” he said. “I think it’s more helpful to describe [political opponents] as they are.” Bottom line, Blumenthal calls the strategy “a mistake and adds: “The public doesn’t see [McCain] that way. That’s a hard sell.”

(Paragraph breaks added for readability.) Sid Blumenthal is correct in this one area: John McCain is no second George W. Bush. Will he make some of the same decisions and mistakes? Almost certainly.

Read on.

Mr. Bush, for example, brought the (abysmal failure of a policy known as the) "New Tone"; McCain is a believer in reaching across the aisle where possible or necessary to accomplish what he sees as being a necessary task. The results of this aisle-crossing are generally less-than-fondly thought of by conservatives: BCRA, the Comprehensive Immigration Bill, the Gang of 14 (something Mr. McCain still gets a bad rap for, in my opinion; though I was an opponent of that compromise at the time, I now think that it was probably the best possible deal and outcome for an exceptionally weak GOP Senate and a President who was being stymied at every turn on judicial nominations).

The good news here is that Mr. McCain appears to have far less patience with those who would take advantage of his good faith and goodwill than Mr. Bush, who arrived in Washington in 2001 with a promise of unification, cooperation, bipartisanship, and respect -- and, seven years later, appears to still not have learned that such a statement of good faith and intention was met by the Democrats inside the Beltway and out not as a promise, but as a challenge.

Mr. Bush has has spent seven years turning the other cheek, apparently in hopes that one more compliment, or one more cave-in on an entitlement issue, would finally win him the support and acceptance that he appears to crave. McCain, I believe, would react in an entirely different manner to the behavior of the most vocal and vitriolic members of the Left side of the aisle -- especially when an issue of personal importance, such as the well-being of soldiers, the conduct of the war, or runaway government spending, is at stake.

Another similarity is the two men's attitudes toward Iraqi front of the Global War on Terror. Mr. McCain has been speaking out for years in favor of remaining committed to this effort -- just like President Bush. McCain, though, latched on to the need for a serious change in strategy and emphasis far before Mr. Bush acknowledged and accepted that as a necessity. That change was finally implemented at the beginning of last year, and the results, though far from permanent at this point, have been staggering.

Further, rather than seeming to waver on the Iraq effort, like even President Bush has at times, Mr. McCain has remained vocal through thick and thin, even repeating over the last year, when his Presidential aspirations seemed to be slipping away, that he would "rather lose an election than lose a war" any day.

There are indeed similarities between the two men, and they are not limited to the two examples above. Both are more interested than many conservatives in legislating stewardship of the environment; both are proponents of free trade; both are more interested in assimilating illegal and legal immigrants than in deporting them; and both are personally extremely pro-life.

However, John McCain is not George Bush -- and a McCain presidency would not be the same as a third Bush term, for several reasons. McCain is a budget hawk; he is a combat veteran, who can lead the armed forces from experience far better than a former Air National Guard pilot; he is a veteran of the Senate, with intimate knowledge of what it really takes to get things done there (as opposed to having only knowledge of the Texas State Legislature); he is far more forceful, and less forgiving of ineptness and stupidity, than is Mr. Bush.

Myriad personal and policy differences exist between the two; however, none of this will be noted by the majority of Democrat strategists this election season. Instead, capitalizing on Bush Derangement Syndrome will be at a premium, and will be used at all costs to drive Democrats to the polls and to the donor rolls. The fact that President Bush is not running for anything this year will not be allowed to change the Democrats' strategy; rather, they will manufacture a run against the historically unpopular president by painting the Republican nominee as simply another manifestation of the hated incumbent.

This election will reveal several facts about the American electorate -- particularly the portion on the Left. The party-fracturing, identity-politicking primary campaign is already pulling back the curtain on several fissures and fault lines withing the Democratic machine and its members among the citizenry. The general election will not only reveal far more about those leaders and those voters, but it will also reveal just how prevalent and how permanent Bush Derangement Syndrome is among the American electorate as a whole.

Sidney Blumenthal is correct: John McCain is not George W. Bush. I personally believe that attempts to paint him as such will backfire on the Democrat party, especially given the unopposed run McCain is currently enjoying, which is giving him time to define himself to the American people without having to worry about fending off an opponent's attacks or counter-messaging.

Mr. McCain needs to continue using this gift of unopposed campaign time to further introduce and define himself -- and to emphasize that he most definitely does not represent a potential "third Bush term."

Though the Democrats cannot technically run against George W. Bush yet again this year, they will try at all costs to do so anyway. As a result, Mr. McCain himself must, in a sense, run against President Bush -- divorcing himself from the man's legacy and from his more liberal policies -- so as to defeat the Democrats' attempts to manufacture an Obama-Bush race.

That will be like walking a tightrope, because there are still pockets of conservatives who have a high opinion of Mr. Bush, and those voters will also be key to a November victory. However, if this game were easy, as they say, it wouldn't be called "politics."