Congressional Races
By ConservativeDemocrat Posted in 2008 — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In just a few years we have gone from having solid Republican majorities in the Senate and a conservative president to having to the Democratic majority in Congress being wildly unpopular and yet poised to gain seats in the House election. Take a look at some states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic:
CT-4 (Chris Shays, Incumbent)Leans Republican
Shays is a liberal Republican in a liberal state, but still always on the defensive. Like always, this is a tight race, but then again, Congressman Shays is used to them. He'll probably win, but still, I worry.
NJ-03 (Open) Unclear
With Congressman Jim Saxon retiring, Democratic State Senator John Adler was uncontested in the primary, while Republican opponent, Medford Township mayor Chris Myers was forced to defeat three others. While Saxon garnered 58% in 2006, President Bush won by only 3% in 2004 and Mr. Myers will need to raise funds quickly to keep this race competitive.
NJ-07 (Open) Unclear
State legislator Linda Stender came within a few points of toppling retiring Congressman Mike Ferguson two years ago, and state senator Leonard Lance doesn't have the benefit of incumbency. It's too close to call.
NY-13 (Open)Likely Democratic
The last GOP seat in the NYC area just might fall to the Democrats this year. Thanks to Frank Powers' untimely death, the New York GOPers have to find somebody and gather 1,000 signatures for them before Thursday. Terrific. The three people often suggested as Powers' replacement are: an investment banker who was forced to resign after being accused of nepotism (Paul Antanasio), a cardiologist put on probation for negligence (Staten Island GOP treasurer Jamshad Wyne), and the candidate of the Independence Party (Carmine Morano). This seat will probably fall to the Democrats.
NY-25 (Open) Unclear
For a seat that hasn't gone to the Democrats in thirty-five years, it's unfortuanate that we could very well lose it to the Democrats. Businessman Dan Maffei had come within two percentage points of defeating John Walsh in 2006, and now that Walsh is retiring, has a good chance of taking his seat. The only indication that GOP candidate, farmer Dale Sweetland is winning is from a disreputable polling firm that at one point showed Maffei leading Walsh by 13% in 2006. Further, Sweetland has compainled about fundraising. Which only hurts our chances.
NY-26 (Open) Unclear
While there is a good chance for a Democratic pickup here, but while the Republicans have picked their candidate (businessman Chris Lee), the Democrats are embroiled in a primary battle between businessman Jack Davis (the nominee in 04' and 06' who recently got the Millionare's Amendment overturned) and Iraw veteran Jonathan Powers that could last until the primary in September. If they don't take this opportunity in a barely Republican district,its only good news for us.
N-29 (Randy Kuhl, Incumbent) Leans Republican
Barely winning by 6,000 votes in 2006 Congressman Kuhl doesn't seem to get it. He still trails in fundraising (and challenger Eric Massa's numbers aren't great either) and recently responded by posting a poll in which he leads, though his percentage was under 50%. Kuhl needs desperately to pick up the slack, or he may find himself out of a job come November.
Straniere being on the outs with the GOP is not a blessing by any stretch. The Island Republican establishment, and I include in that an army of footsoldiers, would not only not support Straniere even if he is the nominee, but may actually work for Democrat Mike McMahon, who already has the backing of the Republican-endorsed, Conservative Party-registered Borough President. I won't say that this race is over, but I will say that I don't envision any set of circumstances under which we could hold this seat.
we have a fatal four-way Republican primary August 5th between two state representatives (Danie Moore and Bob Onder), a former state rep (Blaine Luetkemeyer), and former Mizzou football star Brock Olivo. There would be too much typing for me to try to cover the race.
Plus, the Dems have a fatal four-way as well in their primary, with, IMO, two liberals, a moderate/liberal, and a conservative Dem in the mix. The conservative is the same as ones that has won in the South (pro-life, pro-gun, fiscally responsible, etc.) I don't think the conservative will win the primary, but I think he will do better than people expect.
So you see, way too much typing would be required at this point. Once the primary is settled, I will try to update the race for my fellow RedStaters.
The 9th is a big district, but primarily made up of rural/agricultural typical white people who cling to their religion and guns. Cities include Hannibal, Kirksville, and Columbia. It's a fairly safe seat for Republicans, as long as a Dem from Columbia wins the primary.
This is Congressman Kenny Hulshof's seat, who is running for Governor of Missouri.
that anyone other than Olivo would probably be a decent replacement for Huslhof. Why Olivo thinks that he can jump straight to the U.S. House...?
McCain for POTUS so the left can't ruin SCOTUS.
If you can get the time to write this up, this would be perfect material for a blog post. We definitely need all the local coverage of electoral races that we can get.
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Thanks for your post
I wish more posters would actually post on the congress races in their area or states. Come on folks
On NY 13 Open Fossella Seat
Robert Straniere, a Staten Island politician who spent 24 years in the state assembly before losing re-election, is making a bid for Vito Fossella's congressional seat.
Straniere lost re-election because the SI GOP was never a fan of his and he lost in a primary. The fact the man was elected 24 years by voters and is the outs with GOP may be a blessing almost.