Daily Kos poll causing concern among liberals


The foplowing comes from the Daily Kos  (friday afternoon)

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/11/25

Two numbers, however, which are not listed in the graphic above ought to give the Democratic Party no shortage of concern.

The first indicator of potential peril is the right track-wrong track metric. With each passing day, the mood of the nation is going to be reflected on the current political leadership in Washington DC, rather than the transgressions and incompetencies of the past leadership. And the mood of the nation appears to be darkening, rather than growing more optimistic. After a meteoric rise in the opening few months of the new Obama adminstration, the RT/WT metric now sits at its worst level in months (-17: 40/57).

But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will “definitely not vote” in 2010 than are Republicans.

This enormous enthusiasm gap, as well as some polling analysis done by PPP (and analyzed well here by Nate Silver), seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats. This polling data certainly should be something for Congressional leadership to consider, as they move along the legislative path.



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This part is an absolute riot

bk (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 9:07AM EST (link)

“The first indicator of potential peril is the right track-wrong track metric. With each passing day, the mood of the nation is going to be reflected on the current political leadership in Washington DC, rather than the transgressions and incompetencies of the past leadership. And the mood of the nation appears to be darkening, rather than growing more optimistic.”

Oh the horror! People are judging President Obama based on President Obama and not Candidate Obama vs President Bush – and they don’t like what they are seeing. That’s not fair!

bk, No wonder the trolls are hitting our shores

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 11:28AM EST (link)

in ever-increaing numbers!

Yesterday it was tempting to trudge over the divide and post pro-Palin botisms on the dark side. Temptation resisted because I am not a troll nor do I impersonate one on lefty sites.

NYT article starting to agree with me that we have the worst foreign policy ever, via Ed Morrissey, at hotair:

http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/28/nyt-obamas-an-amateur/

Peggy Noonan article also castigates the superbower, via hot air:

“An icon of a White House that is coming to seem amateurish.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703499404574558134111577494.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

Nobody on our side is surprised by the result of electing Not Bush to the highest office in the land. “Amateurish” is catching on, and lefties’ are one by one dropping the scales from their eyes.


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what troll are you referring to? NT

blaze422 (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 11:56AM EST (link)

Do you think you are one?....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 12:06PM EST (link)

because if you read his comment he was referring to trolls in the abstract and not one in particular which makes your question rather odd unless of course you have guilty emotions which betray your status here….SO DOES IT?

I am a lurker not a troll but

blaze422 (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 1:00PM EST (link)

I find that posters on this site have hair triggers. And sorry if I am paranoid, but when I reference a DK poll and the second reply observes that it is no wonder that trolls are hitting our shores….can someone explain what that has to do with my post?

The connection is between

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 1:04PM EST (link)

the democrats going down in flames in the polls and a heightened troll presence on these pages. The more Obama and the Democrats suck, the more trolls come here to rant and spew. You nor your post are considered trollish. The connection is between polls in general and trolls in general. Ok?


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cool NT

blaze422 (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 1:06PM EST (link)

And while we are discussing polls...does

blaze422 (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 1:14PM EST (link)

anyone know how the major pollsters are adjusting their methodology to acount for the changes in the generic party affiliation. Rasmussen notes a 5-7 point Republican majority..the others 2-5 Democrat, however when you see the recent polls, ( ie the lengthier polls by Fox, Washington Post etc after 20-50 questions, they ask the summary question to identifiy the polled individual as to party affiliation and the division is usually 25% Republican, 35% Democat and the rest independant.
Anyone on RS have insight on how long before the updated generic party affiliation will be represented in polling in general.
Sorry for the rambling thoughts………

For the alphabet media? Never. They'll still be using

eburke (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 2:38PM EST (link)

+13 Dem samples as the Dems lose 40 seats.

What was CBS’s last pre-election poll? Obama + 14 or something like that ?These clowns aren’t even sampling LVs & RVs…just “Adults”.

Morons.

Wait a second…change that to “Useful Tools”.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 

agree with eburke

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 7:28PM EST (link)

the alphabet soup media are agenda-driven, not truth-driven so they, so they are perfectly content using the 2008 presidential election asa benchmark for the party-affiliation adjustments.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

 

Rasmussen party affiliation

azaeroprof (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 8:41PM EST (link)

blaze,
Rasmussen shows currently a 7-point GOP edge on the generic congressional ballot question for 2010. That is different from the generic party affiliation used in regular Obama approval polling (and all other polling).

Rasmussen updates their generic affiliation monthly based on a very large sample. The current affiliation they are using is:

37.5% Democrat
32.2% Republican
30.3% Unaffiliated

So if Obama is polling at his current -8 (46-54) overall and -15 (26-41) on the strongly approve-disapprove scale while Rasmussen is adjusting to a population that is +5.3% Democrat vs Republican, it is an extremely ominous sign for Obama and the Dems.

You can argue about the absolute numbers that Rasmussen comes up with on the generic congressional ballot question. But the key fact is the change. On the last poll right before the 2008 election, the Dems held a +6 edge, while currently the GOP holds a +7 edge. The 13-point swing is shocking for just one year’s time.

The only good news for the Dems here is that there is almost a whole year until the midterm elections. I say that is good news, but frankly if unemployment is still hovering at or above 10% by next November, that 13-point swing may well be at 20+ points and we could seriously be looking at an 80-seat loss (or worse) for the Dems. A long way to go, though. Should be a fun year.

Ras does the best job by far in ascertaining party affiliation.

eburke (Diary) Sunday, November 29th at 1:05PM EST (link)

They conduct totally separate polls of *thousands* of LVs (my fading memory wants to say they poll like 4 or 5 thousand a month and then do a rolling 3 month average so you’re talking like 15,000 LVs which is divorced from anyother questions as to avoid question bias; I’m convinced it’s why they’re the most accurate pollsters in the business).

They’re still showing the Ds up but it at the same level as posted above. For the alphabet polls to still be using +13 samples is nothing more than blatant agenda-driven polling.

Disgusting.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

jaded is right, I spoke of trolls in the abstract.

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 12:13PM EST (link)

Meaning, your enlightening poll demonstrates a reason the trolls are “hitting our shores.” All is not sunny in Obama World.


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Nice insights, Peggy ::rolling eyes::

eburke (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 12:40PM EST (link)

Maybe if you would have stepped away from admiring yourself in the mirror while you pitched a snit that Sarah’s more beautiful than you, and decoupled yourself from the brie and champagne crowd whose approval you so long for, and had spent more time calling out Obama for what it’s obvious he was and is than you did bashing the conservative wing of the GOP as a bunch of knuckle-dragging Neanderthalic troglydytes we wouldn’t be in such deep kimchee now.

Thanks for being there when we needed you.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

So you think it's too late for j'accuse.

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 12:58PM EST (link)

Seems that Noonan is trying to decouple herself by accusing the brie and champagne crowd (and herself) of electing an amateur. I know the horses are completely out of the barn, but if the pinheads are starting to get uncomfortable, it shows we have already won.

The pinheads are idiots, but they can see they have lost the war of public opinion. And they are devastated.


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Exactly

Leopard1996 (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 1:04PM EST (link)

Now she is going to complain about amatuer hour. I know McCain would not have been a great president, but at least he would have known when to talk, and when to put boots to asses.

“The accumluated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout, “Save Us!”….and I’ll look down and whisper, “No”…The Watchmen

 
 

Wow, even bandwagon columnist Peggy Noonan is castigating Zero.

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 4:07PM EST (link)

I have little regard for Peggy Noonan and take this merely as a sign that those with their finger to wind inside the beltway are sensing the movement, too.

Exactly, George. She's dropping the flag, for now. nt

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 4:17PM EST (link)

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Ah, bk, you just want to hold The One accountable because you're a racist

eburke (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 12:42PM EST (link)

You…you…you…bigot, you.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

guilty as charged

bk (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 3:36PM EST (link)

It will be fun to watch next year how House members in competitive races in majority non-black districts beg Obama not to come to their district to “help” them.

 
 
 

YA Another Thing That Parallels What Went Down in '94 (nt)

IJB Saturday, November 28th at 1:10PM EST (link)
 

Blaze, the "money quote".....

penguin2 (Diary) Saturday, November 28th at 4:38PM EST (link)

“seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats.” Really!!!

Yes, by all means that will do a whole lot. Maybe for their 25% base, but I suspect passage of Health Care against the American people’s wishes, should add substantially to the Republican and Independent vote, all away from the Dems.

btw, it is not clear to me which words are yours and which are from the article. I think the post is the article?

Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. – Benjamin Franklin
When Good stands up to Evil, Evil blinks. – Vassar Bushmills

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