Stepping Back From The “Washington Consensus”


Remember way back in the early Nineties, when history had ended? Global leaders and policymakers more or less settled on the “Washington Consensus”: a combination of free-market capitalism with at least a modicum of political liberty had won the Twentieth Century’s agonized debate over which system works best.

Countries all over the world rushed to implement the new model after the fall of the Soviet Union. The common features were market capitalism combined with either a lot of freedom (Estonia) or a little bit of freedom (China).

This was a revolution in how the world organizes its societies. Americans live in the only nation in history that has believed in freedom from the start. It’s all too easy for us not to appreciate that humans have almost always lived under the thumbs of despotic rulers.

Few remember this critical thing about the past two decades: the global revolution in finance and market-capitalism has enabled at least one, and perhaps two billion human beings to rise up out of grinding poverty.

And now everything is rushing back in the opposite direction. The world’s deep thinkers are considering whether capitalism, and even freedom itself, harbor a fatal flaw, a genetic predisposition to financial self-destruction. Whether or not this is true (and I don’t profess to know the answer), it will be a long time before the world tries them again on such a grand scale.

Americans will remember the coming decade as a lean period, not as bad as some we’ve lived through. But for many of the world’s poor, it might be an evil memory for centuries, like the Black Death.


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Stop giving the handwringing traction

kowalski (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 10:10AM EST (link)

This kind of talk is just sad to hear from you:

Whether or not this is true (and I don’t profess to know the answer), it will be a long time before the world tries them again on such a grand scale.

The problem that we witnessed in this country wasn’t capitalism. It wasn’t buying an oxen to plow the field to raise grain to sell at the market, and then using the proceeds to buy some goats to milk and make some cheese for your family and sell the rest of that at the market, and then build a nicer house.

The problem that we witnessed was deep in the heart of the mortgage brokers and the banks and the government who encouraged people to buy houses based on mortgages they could never afford, and in many cases which they couldn’t afford to live in, based on the promise that they could always refinance and sell them at a higher price. The problem that we had was debauchery. Investment houses participated by developing mechanisms to attempt to sell that risk. We started doing crazy things like giving credit cards to people who don’t have social security numbers and weren’t even citizens.

The problem wasn’t capitalism in the sense of: “If you have a product to sell you sell it at the market price. If you can’t make a profit, then you can’t sell it and the price goes down, and you shouldn’t be making the product.” The problem was that the system was ginned so that products people never should have been “selling” was the only thing anyone was interested in.

I watched the price of real estate in Chicago

kowalski (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 10:14AM EST (link)

I watched the price of real estate and new condominiums in Chicago double, and then double again in some cases. Places that originally sold for $90,000 were going for $250,000 and more when I left that market — and this was in the space of just a few years. Anyone who doesn’t realize that that kind of return on investment can only be sustained when everyone is deluding themselves are now learning the price of that delusional thinking.

That’s not capitalism: that’s a casino. The problem was that we successfully rigged up a casino where everyone was supposed to keep getting increasingly large payoffs forever, and ever and ever. Even Donald Trump will tell you that can’t work.

 

That and leveraged borrowing at enormous ratios (nt)

kowalski (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 10:17AM EST (link)

Sadly, I concur...

rbdwiggins (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 12:04PM EST (link)

Capitalism is not the true villain. Although, it’s surely portrayed as one in Washington’s real-life soap opera and morning show.

The culprits, the real ones, believe in social engineering, believe in the ability of government to pick winners and losers without consequence, and in the process, have been consumed by a destructive sense of enlightenment and entitlement that have rendered them powerless to change the course of the financial crisis they created.

Real estate prices will seek their historic values. Which means a whole lot of people will experience a whole lot of pain, probably in the neighborhood of malaise, before this slide reaches bottom. There’s clearly a decade’s worth of government interference in the housing market, so I’m guessing a return to ’97 or ’98 levels.

My worry is that Obama’s approach, which includes nationalization, increased government regulation, higher taxes and out of control deficit-spending, will drive real estate values lower than the historical averages.

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan

 
 
 

Francis, I sure would appreciate ...

skorrent1 (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 11:19AM EST (link)

Your take on Randall Hoven’s article in AT yesterday:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/03/how_did_this_happen.html

He asks a very good question: “How did a drop of a percent or two in US home prices cause whole countries in Europe to go bankrupt?” And in particular, why did this hit Europe harder than, and before, the effects were felt in the US?

We’ve explored the political causes and effects of the Fannie/Freddie debacle, but what was the proximate source and cause of the half-a-trillion-dollar run on the dollar in mid-September, in the middle of a campaign?

I've been trying to get somebody to pose an answer

Achance (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 11:31AM EST (link)

to “what happened” for months now. Lots of smoke, a little heat, but no light. There’s more to this than the stock positional cant we’re getting. I suspect that if anyone in GWB’s government had credible evidence of malice and market/currency manipulation they wouldn’t say anything because they wouldn’t want to admit that it could be done. BHO’s government wouldn’t want to address it because their friends and supporters would have done it. Cui bono?

In Vino Veritas

What's George Soros been doing lately?

bk (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 12:06PM EST (link)

He’s an expert at currency manipulation for personal gain. Perhaps he can offer some insight.

Bingo! And some big foundations, trusts, and hedge funds

Achance (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 12:11PM EST (link)

too.

In Vino Veritas

 
 
 
 

Re: The world’s deep thinkers...

The_Gadfly (Diary) Monday, March 2nd at 1:49PM EST (link)

You don’t often miss Black, but on this one you’re dead wrong. The deep thinkers aren’t questioning, the loud mouthed posers are. The unintelligent intelligentsia who never gave up their longing for the perfect socialist paradise are the loud mouths claiming that capitalism has failed, when it is their policies that have caused the mess we are in. The requirements to loan to people who couldn’t afford the loans because they happened to belong to a class enabled under anti-discrimation law couldn’t be rationalized into the system. So the system expanded it to people who weren’t covered under the law and further expanded the risk. And then since no sane person would hold the risk associated with it, it got sliced, diced, and pureed into “exotic instruments” because we all know the poison is in the dose, so as long as you dilute the poison it is no longer toxic. And it worked for a while, which encouraged riskier and riskier loans because after all, you can’t be sitting on the sidelines when there’s money to be made. So the ratio of toxicity in the exotic instruments got higher and higher until they finally crossed the toxicity threshold. Only now, instead of having isolated islands of toxicity that could be cut out and removed, the poison is in the whole system. Because that’s what the socialists were after in the first place, and have been since socialism first made it’s appearance in England and the US under the banner of Progressivism way back when Wilson was president, and maybe even before that. It will grant the vanishingly small possibility that some actors in this drama didn’t know why they were doing what they were doing, but the principalities behind them certainly did. And I’m quite convinced that no small number, including George Soros, were quite aware of what they were doing, because they think they are smarter than all the rest of us put together, and if only we will bend our knee to their superior intellect, all will be right with the world.

The worlds real deep thinkers (Hayek, Freidman, et al) have already solved this problem. And their cures have already been tested by Reagan, and yes, even John F. Kennedy with the results having bee written into history. Applied again they will remove the poison and we can regain our economic prosperity. Following the proven failures of Carter and Roosevelt under the allegedly benign guidance of The Anointed One will only worsen the sickness. To cure the problem, speak it loudly, clearly, and defiantly: Free markets are the answer, not the problem. Government intervention is only required to make them transparent, not fair, and even then only to the extent necessary for them to be transparent.

 

"Washington Consenus"

CarolT (Diary) Tuesday, March 3rd at 12:04AM EST (link)

I get Investor’s Business Daily editorials, in Sept 2008 they said that everyone with real capital gains took all $ out of stock market because they wanted to pay cap gains tax in 2008 ratess, not in Obama’s rates,

Do we know what those cap gains rates are? I ignored him, stil. do, as much as possible,

To all of yiou, get IBD editorials, they are free and provocing to me. I wish there was spell check here.

Stock market under 7,000 is why Holder released classified GWB documents. The one wants attention, so does Emanuel,