A Major New Idea From Treasury, On Asset Securitizations


There’s a remarkable story being reported in the New York Times. It’s remarkable in itself, and also because as far as I can tell, it’s only being reported in the Times.

It’s a proposal by the Treasury for a radical way of restarting private participation in credit markets. I’m only going to give you the barest outlines of this with minimal analysis, because I can’t be sure the Treasury really means it.

For many months now, “securitizations” have come to a near-standstill. That’s the much-maligned process through which whole mortgages get “sliced and diced” into mortgage-backed securities and sold to the world’s investors.

Through a different but analogous process, other kinds of consumer loans are also securitized: car loans, credit cards, and student loans. (The goal is always to give an investor a piece of paper with a credit rating, a semi-annual coupon payment, and a maturity date. Mortgage analytics and risk management are more complicated, but beyond that, the process is the same.)

Securitization matters because banks can’t provide credit now that most of them are so far undercapitalized. Securitization is an alternate process through which investor funds are channeled into the consumer credit markets.

Except that securitization, which resulted in multi-trillion dollar issuances as recently as 2007, is now completely frozen. Only a negligible amount of new asset-backed securities are currently being issued.

So since the Treasury can’t figure out how to get banks lending again, they decided to look at securitization instead.

What’s missing from the securitization market today is leverage. There is some theory that a fabulous amount of money (hundreds of billions, at least) is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an opportunity to flood back into the market. But it can’t purchase asset-backed securities (and thus revive consumer credit) without financing.

Up until 2007, such financing was readily provided by banks. We already know about what happened to them as a result. They got their heads chopped off.

So now, the Treasury is proposing that you, the taxpayer, should be the source of leverage for investors who want to buy newly-issued asset-backed securities. If the world’s banks can do it and only lose two to four trillion dollars in the process, why not you too?

The way this would work is that an investor would put up anwhere from five to fifteen cents on the dollar to buy an ABS (backed by mortgages, credit card receivables, student loans, auto loans, whatever). And the Treasury would put up the rest at a low interest rate.

But there’s an enormous difference between this process, and the one that all-but-destroyed the world’s banks: rather than forcing investors to take any losses on the ABS, all losses would be borne by the taxpayers.

We’re giving the world’s investors the same bubble-era opportunity to make double-digit returns on their investment, with an infinitesimal amount of risk. It’s as if the government wants to save the economy by triggering another asset bubble.

You might think this is just stupid. I think it’s far beyond stupid. I think it sounds just as wantonly destructive as if the government had deliberately chosen to release bubonic plague into the streets. That’s why I can’t believe I’m reading this right.

But let’s go back to the reporting. Why is this appearing only in one place? Is the Treasury trying to manage the economy by press release? Did they float this as a trial balloon to see how the public would react?

But why do that? The top people at Treasury can get the world’s best experts on the phone any time they want. Even more, they can get the world’s most powerful market participants and ask their advice.

Or can they? One thing about Henry Paulson: like him or not, he had a personal relationship with enough of Wall Street’s movers and shakers to know what was really going on at all times. It’s a measure of the difficulty of the challenge facing us that, with all that, he didn’t come up with better solutions.

But Tim Geithner so far isn’t inspiring that kind of confidence. Why is a major, major idea being floated to New York Times reporters like this?

This story also appears at MarketsAndPolicy.com.


Category: , ,

RSS feed

19 Comments Leave a comment

Scary Stuff

IJB Friday, February 20th at 9:21AM EST (link)

If you believe that Obama & co. want to destroy the capitalist system, this would be the way to do it.

And not just destroy capitalism, but bring America down to the level of a third world country like Zimbabwe.

janis (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 9:35AM EST (link)

This man is the most destructive thing that has been unleashed on this country in its entire history. This has to stop.

Why don't they just reverse mark-to-market

Beaglescout (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 5:22PM EST (link)

It is a destabilizing rule that overstates security values when there is a bull market and understates them when there is a bear market. It is exactly the opposite of a stabilizing rule. So why not get rid of it and use historical based accounting rules, i.e. GAAP?

“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.”

–Alexander Hamilton
 
 
 

Hey!! Here's an idea....JUST FRAKING STOP!!!

USNJIMRET (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 9:31AM EST (link)

Stop with all the “experts” who caused this disaster, providing advice on how to ‘fix’ it.
Stop with all the trial balloons and abortive ‘ideas’ to do little more then spend more money the country does not have, further and further putting our very existence into the hands of our political, social and ideological enemies.
Government, do your damned JOB.
Protect the country from our enemies, and let the market figure out the solutions.
Federal “help” is one step, one very small step, from Federal take over.
Take over by a bunch of knuckle heads who allowed and often facilitated this mess in the first place.
Fox, hen house….any questions?

5555555s

Praying (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 3:54PM EST (link)

to this. Is anyone listening? I didn’t think so. Rats.

No!!!11!1!!1!1! The Bilderbergers are coming

 
 

Nationalization of "banking" is one thing.

mbecker908 (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 9:41AM EST (link)

Nationalized investment banking is a whole different kettle of fish. It’s interesting that not only did this only get reported in one place, it’s breaking on a Friday.

 

How about declaring our independence again?

izoneguy (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 9:55AM EST (link)

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

Folks we are getting to this point – we need to throw this in the socialists faces everytime we confont them.

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

Count me in with you

Praying (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 3:56PM EST (link)

nt

No!!!11!1!!1!1! The Bilderbergers are coming

 
 

Forced dependency

Steph C (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 10:01AM EST (link)

The government can’t seem to herd everybody willingly toward dependency on an all powerful central body, so they’re quite willing to force dissenters into it, willingly or not.

Everything, that’s been done has been for this end. Unfortunately, most won’t realize it until it’s a done deal.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

 

What's so bad, and getting back to free market

tankertodd (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 10:52AM EST (link)

I don’t have a big problem with this based on two assumptions:
1. The problems with understanding the risk of the security have been resolved. I presume that people were buying these without understanding the risk of the security.
2. The government is doing this only to salt the jar and to prove out that the securities are transparent and safe. If they are, then the government is not taking a risk that isn’t insane. I can see the government taking some additional risk only to get the markets moving again on their own. They can sell their leverage out to another group perhaps?

That said, the free marketer has to ask why the money is still on the sidelines. Is it because the securities are still not transparent? If they aren’t, FIX THAT.

———————————
The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race – Chief Justice Roberts

You leave out at least ONE critical point.

USNJIMRET (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 11:07AM EST (link)

And that one is that no matter what, once the Federal Government gets it’s claws into a “private” system, they never EVER let go!
The money may be paid back, but the regulations and control that the government will put in place to “solve” the problem will remain.
And be tweaked, ignored, strengthened, weakened etc, etc, etc by one politician or bureaucrat after another until there is nothing “private” about the business operations anymore.

 

The problem is that there are problems with both of your assumptions

barry915barry (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 3:30PM EST (link)

I think that on your first point it is not so much that they did not know what they were getting into so much as they didn’t care. With ridiculously large returns, and so much being leveraged, the investors were willing to take the risk. As for your second point, the whole point is that the securities AREN’T safe. That is why they were bundled and sold to Europe and Asia. The banks were trying to unload these securities because at some point the pixie dust was removed and they realized that there were TRILLIONS of dollars in bad derivatives that were being leveraged at 100 to 1 on the dollar. Columns such as the King Report and The Retirement Planner suggest that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. That there are as much as
$200 TRILLION in bad derivatives that have been leveraged. THAT is why the money is still sitting on the sidelines. After all, if it looks like a pig, dances like a pig and smells like a pig, well you get the point.
You wrote: “That said, the free marketer has to ask why the money is still on the sidelines. Is it because the securities are still not transparent?”
NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO!

The money will stay on the sidelines until the risk/return ratio comes back into line. This is basic Econ 101. They are simply NOT worth the paper they are printed on at this point in time. Bad risks (homeowners who can’t pay) are still bad risks.

 
 

How is this any different than the risk Dems subsidized w/ Fannie/Freddie?

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 11:06AM EST (link)

Other than the scale. Perhaps MoveOn.org was just a front in a George Soros scheme to rip off US taxpayers. Of course, he had a lot of useful idiots to help him.

</snarkiness>

Who am I trying to kid?

<snarkiness> … to be continued

 

I think Kudlow discussed this on Wednesday from a source he had.

texas214 (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 11:43AM EST (link)

His take was a little different and described differently that what is being reported. If someone can find the tape from Wednesday nights Kudlow Report around the 7:30 EST it may relate.

No question as reported in the Times piece it would be a disaster with way too much leverage. There may be a role to play for the government, but direct investor would not be a good choice.

 

An alternative: goverment as asset investor.

John E. (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 12:23PM EST (link)

If there truly is the possibility for 20% profit in these new securities, the government could just buy them directly and give the tax payers the upside benefit of the risk. If there truly is private capital interested in these securities, but frozen by fear, then the fact that govenment action has created a market for the securities ought to give them some confidence to enter the market. Private and public equity would be competing as buyers. Government as competing investor for “assets” (not firm ownership). That no doubt creates a different set of hazards, but might they be preferable.

I suppose I ought to conclude that this must be an entirely naive approach since it is nowhere advocated. The obvious problem is that the government is too big and conflicted by politics to rationally act on risk/price analysis. Perhaps this could be viewed as an analogue to Paulson’s original plan, directed not at existing securities but new ones.

Nerver mind. Ignorance on display

John E. (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 12:49PM EST (link)

After further thought, I realize that the Fed is doing this already. So the aim of the TALF is to reinvigorate absurd leverage. Thumbs down on that.

 
 

I have the same thought about this

The_Gadfly (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 12:43PM EST (link)

as I did when a talk show host asked “Will the stimulus work as intended?” to his audience at large: Yes, it will work as intended, just not as it was advertised.

Somebody who told Joe the plumber than anyone making more than $250K a year should expect that their earnings would be “spread around” has no respect for our country and our economic system. His intention is to replace it with something he envisions as being “fairer” without regard to whether or not the majority, let alone a supramajority of the American people want.

I held my nose and voted for John McCain in the election because I knew the cost of electing a Socialist as president was going to be high. It appears I didn’t figure high enough when I calculating how high it would be, even though I thought I might have been being pessimistic at the time.

 

If there is billions of dollars waiting on the "sidelines"

kyle8 (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 3:40PM EST (link)

then why would they need leverage to purchase securities.

I think allowing more leveraged asset purchases is a really really bad idea. Leverage is what got us into this mess.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

 

You Just Can't Fool the Markets

Ron Robinson (Diary) Friday, February 20th at 5:04PM EST (link)

Remember the invisible hand.

The money is not on the sidelines, it’s where it always was: earning the safest ,best return possible. Right now, that is NOT in mortgagecredit backed securities.

If mortgage- (or credit-) backed securities look safe and productive in the future, then the money will return to those instruments.

Conservative traders would probably feel like they are pointing a gun at their own head (if they don’t have a kitchen garden and a chicken coop behind their house [but what about zoning laws]). But the younger traders, as ill-educated as they are, (and they are legion) might go for it.

Carefully load gun…

Carefully take aim at foot…

Pull trigger…

Carefully reload…

Carefully take aim at foot…

If it walks like a leaked trial balloon and quacks like a leaked trial balloon, then it probably is…

More of us should be sitting up and taking notice of this.

________________________________________
Ron Robinson
Chair, AD 49 Republican Central Committee
California Republican Central Committee
PROCINCT Author/ Founder
The Precinct Project
Unified Patriots – How-To: Activists Taking Action!
Follow Ron on Twitter