Geithner’s Problem In A Nutshell


Yesterday was his boss’s turn. Today’s it’s Tim Geithner’s.

There are two crises going on, a financial one and an economic one. Yesterday, Obama went to Indiana (a red state that he flipped and needs to suck up to, so they’ll keep going blue), and then to national television, to talk about the economic situation. His message was that the only way to make the economy better is to spend a lot of borrowed money, right now, and it almost doesn’t matter what we spend it on.

The economic crisis is actually rather easy for the President to deal with, on the terms in which he has framed it. He’s not actually interested in returning the US economy to stable, sustainable growth, while repairing the global macro-imbalances which are part of what caused the crisis.

All the President wants to do is to “create or save” 4 million jobs. He already has a disingenuous economic report in hand, published on January 9, which presents a spreadsheet version of an economics-101 case that $800 billion or so in government spending produces 1.5 times that much additional GDP, which by Okun’s law will create or save 4 million jobs. QED.

Whatever happens in the economy, even a return to Great Depression-level unemployment rates, Obama will always be able to say that the situation would have been 4 million jobs worse than it is. His job is all done, except for the PR.

Geithner’s job is just beginning. He has to stabilize the financial system. Success for him is being defined as a return to reasonably-normal levels of private credit formation. He’s going to announce today that he really has no clue how to make that happen.

In a nutshell, Geithner’s problem is that America’s biggest banks aren’t actually dead, they’re just on life support. That constrains his options. Let me explain.

There are at least two reasons why banks aren’t lending. One is that weakness in consumer demand is also depressing demand for credit. This is something that Obama explicitly disagreed with last night. He’s wrong, of course. People want to save money rather than spend it. Thinking he was telling us something we didn’t know, Obama said that the pattern of financing consumption and investment with debt must come to an end. It already DID come to an end, about three months ago.

The more proximate reason banks don’t lend is because they’re undercapitalized. And that’s of course because they’re still working off the losses that they suffered in the collapse of the housing bubble.

Now it turns out that it’s quite difficult to add new capital to a bank. If you do, then existing bondholders get most of the economic benefit (because the higher capital level reduces the perceived default risk of the debt). This isn’t a good deal for the new shareholders, so private investors tend not to play along. This is one of the reasons that banks tend to go out of business when they fail, unlike industrial companies (which tend to renegotiate their costs and capital structure under court protection and keep operating).

There’s always the option of adding preferred stock, as Warren Buffett (a man with a vulture’s eye for low-cost opportunity) does. But this creates another tier in the capital structure above the common equity, and ultimately doesn’t make it easier to attract more common holders.

The existing TARP rescues are an attempt to have it both ways. They’re placements of preferred stock (which were mandatory and not discretionary, in the case of the nine largest banks), with very low coupons and relatively generous covenants. I’m not sure what Paulson was thinking at the time, but the existing TARP financings have some of the characteristics of common stock rather than preferred.

If you doubt that, just look at the recent CBO report whose widely-publicized headline was that the Treasury overpaid for the equity. I just gave you the reason why, several paragraphs up. Putting common stock into failed banks is generally not a good investment.

But accept the fact that the taxpayers can do things that rational investors never would. (After all, we have no choice in the matter.) Even so, the lending picture didn’t improve. Adding $350 billion in capital to a system that has already lost over a trillion and may lose another trillion or more… well, the image of the Dutch boy plugging his fingers into a leaking dike comes to mind.

Geithner’s job would be simpler (but not easier) if he could simply nationalize the banks, as the Swedes did in their banking crisis in the early Nineties, and as we did during the S&L crisis.

The reason he can’t nationalize the banks is because they’re not dead yet. They’re still functioning, many of them profitable, the rest with losses mostly under control, and they have a lot of common shareholders still alive and kicking. The destruction of shareholder value that would come from a nationalization isn’t palatable to anyone, not to mention the fact that a lot of these banks are in fact pretty well run.

As I’ve said before, we have a banking system frozen in amber. It’s not dying, but it’s not providing credit to the economy. In past recessions, we’ve lowered the base cost of money (the “Fed funds” rate), and allowed the banks to rebuild their balance sheets over time. This time, interest rates are already zero and can’t go lower. And the losses are far too big.

So Geithner would ideally like to find a way to entice private capital to come back into the banks. Let me tell you why he will fail.

In his words (which you will hear in his speech today), there’s a lot of capital out there which would like to enter, but can’t get financing. That’s an understatement. Private investors don’t make deals for the greater good. They need solid assurances that things are back to some kind of normal that they recognize and understand.

The kind of public-private partnerships that Geithner will propose (by way of creating secondary markets for distressed assets and encourage the formation of new consumer credit) are very far from normal. Any structure that’s exposed to oversight by Congress is subject not to risk (which can be measured and hedged), but rather to uncertainty (which can’t). You never know when Barney Frank will have a bad day and decide to completely upend the way you do business.

Obama’s executive-pay cap is a fine example of just such an exogenous event. Another is the possibility that Congress will force banks to increase mortgage lending. No sane investor puts money into something so unpredictable.

And then there’s the poor economy itself, as well as the secular picture of lower overall returns on capital. These are all excellent reasons to avoid investing in any business that makes its money from interest rate spreads. There’s just not enough opportunity in today’s banks, with their existing cost structures, to justify private investments.

The final point is that, even if you took every dollar of the private capital that’s sitting on the sidelines (in hedge funds, private equity firms and the like), I don’t believe that you’d have enough money to fully recapitalize the banking system. You’d probably have an amount of money that’s about the size of the original TARP plan. Geithner’s hope of saving the system with private money will fail because there isn’t enough private money.

The bottom line is that we’re in for a long period of relative economic underperformance. This does NOT have to be a catastrophe, to use the word that the President has been incautiously throwing around.

We’ve lost too much money to recover quickly, or by magic tricks. It’s just going to take time.

This post originally appeared at The New Ledger.

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30 Comments Leave a comment

Is there a simpler parallel reason?

bk (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 9:20AM EST (link)

“If you doubt that, just look at the recent CBO report whose widely-publicized headline was that the Treasury overpaid for the equity. I just gave you the reason why, several paragraphs up. Putting common stock into failed banks is generally not a good investment.”

It seems an average person like me that what happened with TARP I and will happen with TARP II and will happen with the so-called stimulus – is that the emphasis is on spending money quickly as opposed to spending it wisely.

We saw the same thing after Katrina. Things weren’t happening quickly enough so there was tremendous pressure to just pour money in and sort it out later, and then all sorts of wailing and gnashing of teeth when you learn that there were scores of cases of fraud.

Aren’t we repeating that cycle over and over again? All Obama has been saying in effect is re the stimulus package is, “Get me a bill ASAP and I’ll sign it. I don’t care what’s in it.”

Actually the simpler parallel reason is that the stock market fell

Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 9:29AM EST (link)

The S&P was over 1100 in early October. Now it’s about 870.

"Markets will be markets"

texas214 (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 12:58PM EST (link)

That is a quote from Reagan on the ’81 recession. We ( the government/taxpayers) didn’t try to stop the increases in our economy over the past 6-7 years, why should we stop the downside? I know people will be hurt and lose jobs, and on and on and on….., but the government has to let the correction happen on the down side as it stayed out of the way on the up side.

Reagan did things, such as cutting taxes, to take government out of the recession in ’81, not inject it self into the problem.

 
 
 

Best case, 4 years or so for the banks to recover.

Old_Crow (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 9:27AM EST (link)

We can’t just wish away the toxic MBS problems or press a magic fast forward button.

The urge for a quick fix will result in missteps and band-aid solutions to the underlying cancer. I doubt we’re looking at a best case scenario and this will drag on for quite a bit longer than 4 years.

“Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm.” — James Madison

Market

Princeliberty Tuesday, February 10th at 9:44AM EST (link)

Let the market clean out all the bad assets.

The real problem with that is a lot of fat cat bankers will get creamed.

A lot of average Joes too, but with the bailouts many more average Joes will be hurt by the harm all the wild government spending will do.

Plus, the bailouts slow down the process of cleaning out the bad assets out of the system.

Princeliberty

 

Making matters worse, there's another hurdle following the attraction of capital

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 11:42AM EST (link)

Success for him (Geithner) is being defined as a return to reasonably-normal levels of private credit formation.

Drilling down on the supply side issue, suppose private capital is attracted into banks. What spread assets would the rational banker chase?

If I’m a banker and can attract near-LIBOR funding (through up-to $250,000 FDIC-insured deposit attractor accounts) and invest it in HIGH QUALITY MBS securities at all-time high spreads (backed in some cases explicitly and IMO, for all intents and purposes, implicitly, foreign capital would flee if the US reneged), why would I bother w/ new credit formation? (Assuming the absence of govt mandates.)

There’s a price for everything, as long as the intersection of supply and demand meet at an executable price. (Of course, if govt laws/regulations take the input (domain) price point that results in the output (co-domain) supply/demand intersection point off the table, then obviously no legal (or defacto legal) clearing price will result.)

After specifying the problem in an intellectually honest manner, we can draw the conclusion not only that A) there is no quick fix to the second hurdle, but also that B) capital that does not make it past the first hurdle will not exert market pressures on the second hurdle. Policies or risk environments (including legislative risk) that delay the clearing of the first hurdle just delay the clearing of the second hurdle.

 
 

How the heck does one measure...

tempest Tuesday, February 10th at 9:31AM EST (link)

a job that was saved? This save jobs is not measurable and simply allows BHO to say it would have been much worse if not for my porkulus plan..total BS.

Apparently

Princeliberty Tuesday, February 10th at 9:45AM EST (link)

If Obama had not one then every single American would have lost their job!

Princeliberty

 

Oh, we'll know when Obama has saved 4 million jobs...

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 10:38AM EST (link)

when there’s only 4 million jobs left.

As Francis states, Obama’s formulation of “jobs saved” would result in that ridiculous result. Yet somehow, were supposed to believe that Barack is the “smart one”.

 

Saved Jobs?

Spartan4Life (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 10:49AM EST (link)

A sycophantic press actually lets him get away with innoculating himself this way for when this stupid plan fails? Now that’s funny.

The jobs that will be saved are toll booth workers in NY, NJ, and California that should be lost if those states had any fiscal discipline anyway.

 
 

I wish someone had a calculator last night

angryred Tuesday, February 10th at 9:40AM EST (link)

RSers: please corrrect me if I am wrong. (I am just a lowly housewife) but isn’t 850 billion divided by 4 million, about 212 thousand? Does it really cost 212,000 to create one job in this country? He kept throwing that number out there. “well I’m just trying to save or create…”

I know that that money is going for mostly crap, and for this joker to imply otherwise was real arrogance.

And one more thing, he said the Government was the only entity left with the resources to pull us out: I was actually offended by this. I am revolted by this welfare state he wants to implement. I do just fine on my own, thankyou…

1-20-13 Hope for Change

It would be edifying if Fox News would do something like that--

janis (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 9:44AM EST (link)

have a calculator running onscreen to show actual numbers for statements such as Obama’s or his minions when they start throwing numbers out there.

Oh Man that would be hysterical

angryred Tuesday, February 10th at 10:01AM EST (link)

Like the deficit counter we have here in Manhattan…..or a little *ding* evertime the DL told a fib….

1-20-13 Hope for Change

You wouldn't be able to hear a thing he said, you know. The dings would be continuous.

janis (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 10:12AM EST (link)

Personally, I’d prefer one of those loud gameshow buzzers that you get when you come up with the wrong answer.

Maybe we could feature DL on that show “Lie to Me” on Fox? That’d be a hoot.

 

How about a laugh track complete with guffaws?

Xasteius (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 11:13AM EST (link)

It would make those stupid speeches more entertaining

Don’t leave the party, hijack it back!

The only poll that counts is the one at the ballot box.

I don’t want to be Reagan. I want to be a Chance/Soros hybrid.

 
 
 
 

Democrat constituencies have been getting hind teat

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 9:44AM EST (link)

since ’94, so the whole purpose of this stuff is to restore advocacy groups, poverty pimps, race baiters, unions, etc. to their rightful place with some nice, free, federal money, something they haven’t had enough of lately.

Now, of course, if GWB’s crowd had had a clue about how to run a government, none of these groups would have been on a teat AT ALL and should have had federal auditors and investigators as their constant companionos for the last eight years. Republican executives at the federal and state level continue to feed the hand that bites them by letting federal and state money go to these groups with little or no accountability. The Democrats use these non-profits as their training ground for operatives, as organized advocacy groups on Democrat issues, as a place for sinecures for officeholders and operatives when they’re out of power. When Republicans lose power, their officeholders and, especially, operatives go to the Democrats or back to selling cars or some such.

In Vino Veritas

Man, that is so true

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 11:37AM EST (link)

What I wouldn’t give for Republicans, both elected and in the bureaucracies, who played half as cut-throat as the Commie turds.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

Yeah, but if you'd like to get two or three reccos

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 12:53PM EST (link)

and four or five comments and watch your diary slide quickly into oblivion, all you have to do is write about nuts and bolts government. I have that piece on the CA furlough that made the Recommended list, but most of the interest in it was about the semi-threadjack over the CA Republican Party’s travails. The typical Republican or R-leaning voter doesn’t want to be an elected official or a government employee when they grow up, so the stuff just makes their eyes glaze over. Then we do elect a Republican executive and he/she can’t find the light switches and rest rooms and hasn’t a clue how to get that government to do anything. They can’t get enough Republicans to fill all the Democrat created appointee slots, so they keep a bunch of Democrat holdovers and wonder why they get thwarted, sabotaged, and leaked to death.

I look at my own nominally Republican government, the one that the much loved Sarah Palin is supposed to run. When she took over, she mostly just fired the relatively few Republicans that Frank Murkowski had put in office, even brought back some that Frank had run off. Now, other than a few friends of Sarah and Todd, what she mostly has at the division director level, where real work gets done, is a combination of congenital ‘crats and holdover Democrats going back to Knowles and, for some, even further back to Cowper and Sheffield in the early ’80s.

Understand, a lot of us who worked for Murkowski wouldn’t work for this administration, but she really could have tried to find some Republicans rather than just leave the government on Democrat friendly autopilot.

In Vino Veritas

 
 
 

And the "Finger pointing"

USNJIMRET (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 9:47AM EST (link)

will do nothing but lengthen the time it takes to “fix” any part of the problem.

 

Dow drops 280 on Geithner's Presser...

Attack Mode (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 11:31AM EST (link)

Guess Wall St. didn’t like what it heard.

“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.

But many MSM-paid financial analysts are still saying: Obama must act fast with his Stimulator.

Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 11:40AM EST (link)

Somehow, Obama’s economic strategy works well with CONFUSION.

The Legacy Media’s mindset is still somewhat stuck in September 2008 where “the plummeting of the market works well to further advance with the popularity of Obama”.

 

Man worse presser ever, even worse interview after

Alberta (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 12:42PM EST (link)

So you got Barry telling everyone the world is going to end and you fell compelled, if your Timmy, to hold a press conference touting your solution to the ‘catastrophe’. Cool. But then it comes out you basically have no plan and you held a press conference to announce you are at the start of the plan developement process. Oh boy.

And then in the interview with cnbc after he threatens the entire banking sector with Jah knows what with the words “its in their (Bank CEOs and boards) to higher quality decisions.’

Or what, Timmy? And what exactly is the US Govs definition of quality decisions? And when will you be taking that gun away from the financial sectors head?

I bet my brother a drink that it (the dow) would drop 400 points today. Im thinking I may win that bet.

Sir, my concern is not whether God is on our side; my greatest concern is to be on God’s side, for God is always right.
Abraham Lincoln

Not surprising, Geithner doesn't have a clue.

Old_Crow (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 1:10PM EST (link)

He’s 0 for 5 by my count.
Was in favor of keeping interest rates artificially low in 2003-2005, strike 1

Supported the TAF in Dec ’07, strike 2

Supported the Bush stimulus plan, strike 3

Supported TARP in Sept ’08, strike 4

Supports letting Lehman fail, strike 5

“Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm.” — James Madison

 
 
 

I wonder if non-bank financing will grow, especially for small business.

streetwise (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 11:35AM EST (link)

Peer-to-peer networks link up investors looking for alternatives to low yields with small businesses looking for capital that is not available from banks or the equity market.

Here’s an article on one:

http://www.americanwaymag.com/prosper-renaud-laplanche-madeline-smith-nhat-nguyen

Yes, it seems to me that niche has turned into a void

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 11:50AM EST (link)

Of course, these entreprenurial intermediaries have to execute, but the opportunity set has to be much bigger than it was pre September 2008.

 
 

Specifying the problem & accessing the urgency and cost-benefit

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 12:46PM EST (link)

of the credit crunch and subsequent policy options/realizations

While TARP I gets bashed, I still hold to the view that it was far better than doing nothing. (TARP I is often critized as “opening the door.” An assumption embedded in that line of reasoning is that the lack of TARP I would have prevented the Dems stimulus package. I don’t buy that.)

Action:   TARP I
Problem: Global financial meltdown
            • Commercial paper mkt on brink of shutting down
            • Global “run on the bank” imminent
Links:     Google search on "Commercial paper meltdown 2008"
            Obama reinterprets the TARP
            6 Emergency Measures to Prevent a Banking Meltdown

Key Problems:
  • LIBOR bid only, no offer.
  • Commercial paper market shut down, little trading and no issuance.
  • Corporations have no access to long or short term credit markets — hence they face massive rollover problems.
  • Brokers are increasingly not dealing with each other.
  • Even the inter-bank market is ceasing up

We are indeed at the cardiac arrest stage and at risk of the mother of all bank and non-bank runs

Urgency: Immediate
Cost:     ~$100 billion overpayment on $350 billion
Benefit:   Lack of global collapse, preventing funds owed to solvent banks by teetering banks from starting a domino effect

Action:   Stimulus
Problem: Job losses
Link:     (none needed)
Urgency: Anybody sensing an immediate collapse? Me neither.
Cost:     $820 billion less tax cuts plus permanent bureaucracy annuity
Benefit:   To pork barrel recipients

Action:   TARP II
Problem: Bank losses & undercapitalization
Link:    
Urgency: Anybody sensing an immediate collapse? Me neither.
Cost:     (I’m not up on the details)
Benefit:   (I’m not up on the details)

 

I Loved the Part Where He Stared Like a Dummy

farstar99 (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 2:01PM EST (link)

He’s thinking, “Duh…I forgot the script for that one. Try to tie it back to the earlier question I took ten minutes to answer without answering. The cult members will think it’s clever and the rest are asleep by now. Why can’t they put stuff like this on the Teleprompter? Like those little balloons they have on VH1. Is that a door or a window? My head still hurts from the helicopter. When I’m approving these questions in advance I really need to start color coding them or something. Or just have one answer for everything that blames Republicans and whines about bipartisanship, whatever that is. God, Katie Couric is a moron. You say anything and she laps it up like a dog eating its own puke. I wonder what Joe’s drinking right now?”

 

If They Won't Lend, Create New Ones that Will

quill67 (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 2:57PM EST (link)

When a co-worker suggested the idea that we give bailout money to those who did not create the current problems, I thought it would not be practical; After all, the people in the financial sector have special knowledge about their business and potetial clients that someone outside the industry would not have.

However, I then began to think about it more. If the current financial market firms can not lend because of under-capitalization, then maybe something new is needed, and maybe it would not be as difficult to create as I once thought. There are a lot of CEOs of financial institutions who have retired who know the financial markets very well. They could lead a new company and even hire people they need from those banks who are undercapitalized. The government could provide startup capital (perhaps requiring some private equity funds as well), say $50 for each firm and set them lose to make loans.

Would this work? Or am I missing something?

 

If They Won't Lend, Create New Ones that Will

quill67 (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 2:57PM EST (link)

When a co-worker suggested the idea that we give bailout money to those who did not create the current problems, I thought it would not be practical; After all, the people in the financial sector have special knowledge about their business and potetial clients that someone outside the industry would not have.

However, I then began to think about it more. If the current financial market firms can not lend because of under-capitalization, then maybe something new is needed, and maybe it would not be as difficult to create as I once thought. There are a lot of CEOs of financial institutions who have retired who know the financial markets very well. They could lead a new company and even hire people they need from those banks who are undercapitalized. The government could provide startup capital (perhaps requiring some private equity funds as well), say $50 for each firm and set them lose to make loans.

Would this work? Or am I missing something?

 

Blackhedd, why did Geithner even speak today, given that they gave no details? - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Tuesday, February 10th at 7:01PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson