I live in New York City. I talk to a lot of businesspeople, investors, and Wall Streeters. I don’t talk to all that many ordinary people.
But I enjoy being interviewed on live radio in other parts of the country. And when I do that, I get the chance to hear what local callers think about the economy, and more importantly, what they want.
They want to save a lot more money. This answer comes up automatically, without qualification, and without exception when you talk to ordinary folks.
When did this desire to save materialize? It was pretty sudden. If you look at official statistics (both the Commerce Department and the St. Louis Fed publish relevant ones), the personal saving rate suddenly ticked up to between 2 and 3 percent about four months ago. Remember, it had been running nearly zero before the financial crisis started. We had one month when personal savings jumped over 5%.
Curious? Sure enough, it was May 2008. That’s when the tax rebate checks went out.
I won’t try to explain the sudden desire on the part of consumers to start saving, after decades of dissaving, although that’s certainly an interesting question. Sometimes the pendulum just has to swing the other way. If you try to associate the shift with some contemporaneous event (like an acute financial crisis, or the gasoline-price spike), you risk mistaking cause for effect.
Periodic increases in the desire of individuals for liquidity are nothing new. In the days before deposit insurance, they appeared as increases in holdings of currency or specie. Now, they show up as higher bank balances. Either way, the money is neither consumed nor invested so it effectively disappears from the economy.
The other way that money disappears from the economy is when the Federal government collects taxes. Did you ever stop to ask yourself why the government collects taxes in the first place? After all, they print their own money, a process that’s free of cost or friction. They don’t need to collect taxes in order to spend money. Instead, they collect taxes in order to manage the overall money supply and prevent inflation.
But there’s no inflation risk at a time when individuals have a strong desire to stop chasing goods with their dollars. That’s where we are now.
So how do individuals contrive to save more money? Simple. They cut down their levels of consumption and investment (savings and investment are NOT the same thing).
Oops. That makes the economy smaller. It also increases unemployment, which raises government deficit spending automatically (through lower tax revenue and higher unemployment compensation). The increase in personal savings is directly correlated with an increase in government deficits. They go hand in hand.
I’ll pause for a minute and let you reread that last paragraph a couple of times. It’s not something you’ll hear in too many places, and you need to let it sink in.
So how can you enable people to increase their savings (which they are bound and determined to do, and nothing will dissuade them), WITHOUT requiring them to cut consumption and investment, and raise unemployment?
Well, go back to the relationship between personal savings and government deficits. It works both ways. If you can increase the deficit, you’ll automatically enable the savings rate to rise.
We already know how Obama wants to increase the deficit. He wants to massively increase government spending. But as we’ve seen in the last two weeks, the spending will be inefficient, wasteful, misdirected toward left-wing priorities, very slow, and not likely to take place in time to inflate the economy in the first place.
And besides, the effect on GDP will be far less than expected because the people want to save the money, not spend it. Have the government spend it, and it’ll land in people’s bank accounts quite soon, rather than increase monetary velocity.
Increasing the deficit by spending is the wrong answer.
What’s the right answer? Easy as pie. CUT TAXES, RADICALLY.
Obama wants to spend $900 billion over two years, a bit more than 3 percent of GDP.
Scrap that whole idea. Instead, let’s cut about 60% of the payroll tax, the entire employee contribution plus a bit of the employer contribution, for two years. That’s about the same sized increase in the Federal deficit.
Except that its effect on the economy will be instantaneous. The additional money that people will save out of their paychecks will displace their forgone consumption and investment. They’ll be able to increase savings as they desire, without cutting their spending. If you abate taxes enough, consumer spending and investment will spring right back, almost magically.
And this is a sharp instrument, not a blunt one. As soon as you’ve stimulated enough, inflation will appear in the CPI (as people pull money out of their mattresses and start chasing goods with it). That’s when you bring back the payroll tax. You can do it on a month’s notice. There’s no overshoot, as with wasteful government spending.
What could go wrong with this? Same as the last time we tried it, in the 1960s. President Kennedy found it easy to cut income taxes. When inflation appeared in 1965, it took LBJ three more years to jam a tax increase through. If it turns out we can’t bring back the payroll tax, the Federal Reserve has other ways to shrink the money supply.
And guess what? If that happens, you’ve just made the tax system vastly more progressive, which last time I checked was a powerful left-wing priority. Let them have this one, if they can’t get billions of dollars for ACORN and condoms.
It all comes back to personal savings. Let them grow. That’s what the people want. It won’t do for the neo-Keynesians to insist that personal savings are the problem. Go with the grain, not against it.
Yes, this is radical. It will also work.
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
Daniel Horowitz
It'll never fly in Washington
bk (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 7:53AM EST (link)Congress would never approve a one-page common sense bill when they can produce a 900-page one full of favors for friends and favorite causes.
"That’s what the people want." 5 ^ ?
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 8:07AM EST (link)I can’t tie this together as tightly as Francis, but it seems to me just common sense that any economic activity (including govt-based economic activity) is most sustainable when it’s focused/aligned with what the people want.
The last time government-based economic activity provided an unambiguously positive effect on employment was during WWII. Did the American people want/demand a free world after Pearl Harbor? You betcha.
So what did the people signal they wanted when they voted 52% for Obama on Nov 4? Just about every time I asked Obama supporters that question, I’d get answers along the lines of “It’s gotta be better.” Probing further, I’d get “It’s gotta be better. He’s not Bush.”
Obama, I’ll give you credit for delivering “what the people want.” You’re not Bush. So quit while you’re ahead.
that was five to the infinity
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 8:16AM EST (link)shoulda used html code ∞ in 5 ^ ∞
none of our sturm and drang matters at this point
kyle8 (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 8:18AM EST (link)The people in their infinite wisdom fell for the eight years of constant demonization of conservatism (even though we didn’t actually have any conservatism) and now they got their liberal messiah.
Yes they are going to get stimulus, there gonna get it real hard, with no lubricant. And the most the republicans can do is either run away from it, or at best reform it a little around the edges, which won’t help much.
Don’t think that public opinion matters at all here. The liberals have been waiting for this slush fund for decades, no way they back off now.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
Would the extra money be spent?
PubliusII Thursday, February 5th at 8:34AM EST (link)If the Government adopted the tax holiday and people had more money in their wallets, how do we know that people would spend that money? People might just save that extra money as well. In that scenario, the payroll tax cut would not stimulate the economy either.
Is lack of liquidity really why people have stopped spending? If the drop in spending is caused by the drop in the value of homes, 401(k)s, investments, etc. (reverse wealth effect?) then does having extra cash (generally a good thing) necesssarily result in increased spending?
PubliusII
The people are all out of spending bullets...
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 8:48AM EST (link)Yes, the deleveraging will be painful, but necessary. I think Francis’ suggestion would mitigate that pain while expediting the restocking of spending bullets that needs to occur in consumer’s bank accounts.
It’s not a “magic bullet,” but rather one that would at least be fired in the right direction.
You're taking the Democrats at their word, PubliusII
Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 9:37AM EST (link)Why do you assume that more spending is what’s needed to fix the economy?
The economy shrunk by 3.8% in Q4 (and would have shrunk much more were it not for a buildup in inventories), but personal disposable income only dropped by a bit over 1%.
The recession is being led by reduced consumer demand, but it’s not because people have less money. It’s because they want to save it rather than spend it.
The increased saving rate is the thing that’s new and different. That’s what you and the policymakers in Washington have to come to grips with.
Spending will come back after consumers feel like they’ve saved enough (and no one knows what it will take for them to feel that way).
Give them the ability to save. When they’ve done enough of that, they’ll spend again. Cut their taxes, and that point will come much sooner. Either way, we have to go through a period of economic weakness before things improve.
Put the money through an additional step of government spending, and you’ll delay the recovery rather than accelerate it.
Right On!
Jonah Shumate (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 9:27AM EST (link)Francis is right on with this approach. Why wont Democrats do this? Because this approach puts money DIRECTLY IN THE PEOPLES HANDS, and lets them do with THEIR money what THEY want.
See, The P.R.O.’s (Pelosi, Reid, Obama, in that order) want to be in control and tell the people what is needed and hope we all fall in line. Thats their hope, and to shove those programs down our throat.
Give me my money, or give me death!!!
I'm seeing this on a corporate level right now.
Andy W. Thursday, February 5th at 9:50AM EST (link)I work for a originally American, but now multinational, older corporation. Due to advances in our industry, we were able to have a banner year in 2008. Hopes were high and things were looking good.
I got an email from the CEO yesterday. It said we had a banner year in 2008. Hopes were high then, etc. We have over a billion in ready money. BUT, since the economy has tanked, and we are uncertain of our future revenues, we are going to have to SAVE money by cutting our work force and reducing capital expenditures.
Will the stimulus package help my company? I doubt it. We aren’t represented by a major union and we don’t produce condoms or a product like cars that we can threaten to use as a strangle hold on the economy.
Nope, all the stimulus will do is raise our consumers’ taxes and reduce their ability to buy our products.
hmmmm.
Keep up the good work Sam Graves (R, MO-6)
How does saving money make it disappear from the economy?
JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 10:19AM EST (link)If I put money into a savings account, doesn’t that add at some ratio (I presume 30 to leverage is out) the money that a bank can lend? More importantly, a bank won’t a bank with surging deposits be encouraged to lend?
My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.
STOP THE MADNESS!
A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!
JSobieski, lending is down of late, no?
Reaper0Bot0 (formerly Han_Pritcher) (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 10:23AM EST (link)If that is so then a greater propensity to save may allow more banks to keep sufficient capital on hand to weather this storm, but I doubt that savings will do as much for investment now as they did two years ago.
I’m a lying troll.
Lending is down because balance sheets are impaired, no?
JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 10:26AM EST (link)Savings unimpairs the balance sheet, no?
Money saved will be lent out a true multiplier, maybe not 30 to 1 like pre-meltdown but still more than 1 to 1.
Spending money on fruit fly research has a multiplier less than 1.
Besides, even just weathering the storm means TARP 2.0 could be avoided, or maybe just TARP 3.0 could be avoided.
My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.
STOP THE MADNESS!
A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!
That's not how credit formation works
Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 2:19PM EST (link)A bank creates credit (lends money) as it sees fit, depending on the business opportunities they see, the credit quality of the borrowers, and the shape of the yield curve on that particular day.
Then they fund the new asset by borrowing money in the interbank market that night. Their overall capital level (balance sheet) constrains the amount of credit they can create.
Right now, US banks have a total reserve level more than ten times higher than it was a year ago (mostly because the Fed has been pumping money into them like coal into a boiler). Doesn’t make them willing to lend money into a weak economy.
Deposits are things that happen AFTER credit has been created, not before. To the bank, a deposit is a liability that is matched to an asset somewhere along the line.
Investing is something that people decide to do when they believe there will be a positive rate of return. If they don’t see those opportunities, they’ll either save their money or spend it on something else.
If reserves are that high, why even talk about TARP 2.0?
JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 3:40PM EST (link)With reserves as high as they are, eventually the profit motive will kick in.
Doing even more to heal the balance sheets of the banks makes no sense if the reserves are so high that the balance sheet is no longer the limiting factor.
My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.
STOP THE MADNESS!
A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!
If savings truly is a liability, why do banks want deposit accounts?
JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 3:41PM EST (link)There are all sorts of banks out there offering various incentives to open accounts with them. Surely those accouonts are not merely loss leaders?
My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.
STOP THE MADNESS!
A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!
Stimulus Bill fading in popularity
Scope (Diary) Thursday, February 5th at 11:58AM EST (link)We all know that the Democrats live by poll numbers. There is a new poll out by Rassmussen, and for the third straight week, support for the stimulus bill is falling. Only 37% now support the bill. Support for a “tax cut only” bill is going support.
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/rasmussen_stimulus_poll/2009/02/04/178542.html
I’ll bet Obama knew of this trend, and that’s why he is getting more desperate to pass it right away. He said today- If we don’t do this right now, we may “never” recover from our economic problems. It’ll be interesting to see next week’s poll results. This should be a tremendous impetus to push the Republicans who want more tax cuts.