Financial Markets On Edge


Extreme Stress In Money Markets

The basic storyline in financial markets remains unchanged today, as everyone waits for Congress to act on the Paulson bailout plan. In the meantime, overnight conditions in the world’s money markets are again approaching the extreme stress levels we saw exactly one week ago. Keep reading…

There is a lot of intelligent commentary out there, to the effect that Congress needs not act immediately to pass a bailout bill for distressed mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Paulson, Bernanke, and now President Bush have emphatically made the opposite point, that we have to act immediately.

There would be a lot of benefit from giving this proposal a more considered hearing in Congress, of that there’s no doubt.

The problem is that there’s no time left on Congress’s schedule. They leave town on Friday the 26th to go home and get re-elected. (Whether they should be re-elected is something I can’t discuss without violating the language rules of this site.)

If Congress leaves town without making a deal, and we have to wait for a rump Congressional session in December, we could quite likely have experienced a serious crash by then.

In the meantime, financial markets watch and wait. And interbank lending, which is the core transaction of the global payments system (and the mechanism through which money appears in your account when you cash your paycheck) has steadily become more and more frozen as we’ve gone through the week. Three-month dollar LIBOR will probably be fixed this morning at a rate close to 3.8%.

As a side note, the New York Fed has quietly kept the Fed funds rate (the key American interbank rate) close to 1.5% all week. The Fed’s current target for this rate is supposed to be 2%. I find that pretty interesting. It signals that, in the background, they’re getting worried about the Main Street economy, which is getting weaker even as we all focus on the Wall Street crisis.

I’ve heard from several correspondents that if Congress doesn’t produce a clean bill by Friday, we can expect a very serious reaction in world markets. (“Clean” means: free from oversight mechanisms that will keep the bailout from actually working, and free from a huge pile of handouts to Democratic constituencies.)

For a good part of yesterday, my sources indicate that a deal was close. The action in Congress shifted from open hearings to closed meetings dominated by Democrats in the House of Representatives.

House Democrats know they can put just about anything into this bill, and the President will be unable to veto it. Because Congress will be out of town, the bill can’t become law without the President’s signature.

You will simply not believe the evil and the pork-barrel spending that Barney Frank will put into this legislation. Frank is about to get the biggest set of Hannukah presents anyone has ever received, probably in history. At your expense, dear taxpayer.

Watch his smug, ugly face when you see him on camera over the next few days. A more veritable robber baron has never existed, not even in Wall Street’s most rapacious dreams.

By yesterday evening, published reports had it that any deal would be postponed a few days. That means we need to consider the consequences of a possible financial Armageddon.

The relevant comparison is probably to 1929. The stock market may fall at least 20%, although I’ve heard worse guesses, and commodity prices would likely also fall. The consumer economy would probably slow sharply but temporarily.

The world will survive and recover from a crash, but beyond that, it’s hard to guess at specific outcomes. Still, now is the time to think about the possibility.

-Francis Cianfrocca


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33 Comments Leave a comment

One person's post here....

Moriah (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 5:23AM EST (link)

… has made me wonder if the best solution is some way to manage the market correction to keep it from happening in panic, and more in control.

Not adding any more money to the economy — perhaps taking money OUT of the economy — so that we do not end up with worse inflation than we already have thanks to the housing crisis.

Whatever happens, it’s going to hurt.

Perhaps now we better stop thinking about avoiding what is going to happen, and figure out instead a way to manage it so it happens at least somewhat sanely.

Blessings,

Moriah

 

Use Line Item Veto

quill67 (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 6:45AM EST (link)

If the Democrats put a lot of pork into the bill (that is also politically unpopular) then the President should utilize a power that many think Presidents already have —the line item veto.

 

A stitch in time saves nine. nt

streetwise (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 7:10AM EST (link)

The Line Item Veto is.....

Wubbies World (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 7:10AM EST (link)

….. nonexistent. It was a Congressional approved mechanism from the 80′s that lapsed and no longer exits. It is now all or nothing with the veto.

Red State Strike ForceWubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
Join The Red State Strike Force
><> If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing Right The First Time.

 
 

Could this be right? Is Paulson that crafty?

John E. (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 7:17AM EST (link)

[The Paulson Plan Will Make Money for Taxpayers]

Andy Kessler: The Paulson Plan Will Make Money for Taxpayers

What do you think about this scenario blackhedd?

 

We are just, "evil", "abusive" Wall Street guys Blackie

Marcus_Traianus (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 7:38AM EST (link)

Nobody cares what we say or think. Congress always needs to deflect the blame of their mistakes and this is no exception.

With the Continuing Resolution, Congress just gave $25 billion to the automobile companies and no one batted an eye. Where is all the bipartisan screaming? Well, since Ohio and Michigan are electorally in play there will be none.

We have proverbial Fannie/Freddie crack addicts Frank and Dodd telling us what is good for the financial markets? Now Obama gets a seat at the table, all in the interest of bipartisanship? Where was that spirit when they glibly killed the President’s and McCain’s reform bills?

Honestly, how about Congress just hands out big “kick me” signs for all the American taxpayers? Oh, sorry mom, I know you said to try and get along.

If one has ever been at the table negotiating large credit agreements, right now you are probably punching the monitor. Just the fine print on this is enough to kill any deal.

Apologies, I need to go see what institutions will become illiquid today while the Democrat led Congress and Obama try to figure out the best political angle on this crisis.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

Well, Marcus, there are evil and abusive

Achance (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 7:51AM EST (link)

people on Wall Street, and especially where Wall St. intersects with Pennsylvania Ave. There are some people who have simply been looters and now the American people are being asked to pay for having been looted. There ain’t a whole lotta love for bankers and brokers, all sorts of brokers, out here in flyover country.

There really are some people and I only have a inkling who they are who need to be given the Chinese remedy for business failure.

In Vino Veritas

I like the ring of that. Achance: the "Chinese solution"

civil truth (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 9:02AM EST (link)

The next challenge is find the right guys who can effectively apply said treatment and leave no tracks behind. Though first you need to make sure you correctly identify the patients in question.

Perhaps Mr. Putin might be able to help out with the therapeutic protocol; I’m sure he’d appreciate being asked, and it might warm up U.S./Soviet Russian relations a bit.

The greatest evil…is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed, and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voice. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the offices of a thoroughly nasty business concern. -C.S. Lewis

http://www.gmsplace.com/

 
 
 

I am thinking about the possibility ...

Leverkuhn (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 9:16AM EST (link)

… of a market crash, and I’m seriously wondering if it’s not better than signing onto the “solution” that this bill represents. If you go to my diary on the subject, there’s a link to Jack Welch saying that we’re in for a severe recession no matter what happens. A lot of other experts are saying the same thing.

If that’s the case, what exactly is the upside to passing this bill? How much worse will it be if we simply say, hey, we’ll take the recession?

You’ve pointed to 1929 as an apt comparison to what’s happening now. For the sake of argument, let’s accept that comparison. But the historians don’t generally accept the idea that the Great Depression was a direct result of the Wall Street crash. For one thing, the Depression didn’t really start in earnest until 1931. Moreover, there were a whole lot of other factors contributing to it: saturation in the durable goods market (i.e., cars, radios, etc.), decline in demand for U.S. exports, and even climate change (re: Dust Bowl). So are we really talking about a return to the 1930′s? Or simply the crappiest part of the 1970′s? Because if it’s the later, I’m inclined to say, “no deal.”

“Senator Joe Biden is … a man so full of cr*p his speeches bear an awful resemblance to twenty minutes of flatulence preceded by ‘Good evening ladies and gentlemen,’ and followed by ‘God bless America.’”

- Leverkuhn

I know plenty of people with the skills

Achance (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 9:21AM EST (link)

to apply the remedy, myself among them. The issue is determining to whom the remedy should be applied.

I’m just a hick from Nowhere who went to a state school, and I didn’t have any trouble seeing that the housing boom was insanity. I’ll never forget watching an episode of that house flipping show in which they picked up little sixties vintage three bedroom ranch almost identical to mine except for a smaller lot but in suburban LA. The inside was trashed but they paid half a million and change for it, spent 80K on sheetrock and glitz, mostly at Home Depot, and sold it for $700K. Now mind you, my sister has an almost identical house and larger lot in rural GA valued at about $65K, mine in Juneau on a lot the same size lot as my sister’s is valued, overvalued, at about $300K. This for the same bundle of sticks, shingles, and sheetrock.

Who in the World who could actually afford a $3/4 Million house would want to live in a 1200 square foot ranch in a Sixties subdivision? I’m fairly certain that the people buying houses like that couldn’t afford them ’cause people that dumb can’t make that kind of money.

In Vino Veritas

Blame mbecker, achance. He wrote all the bad mortgages

Marcus_Traianus (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 10:12AM EST (link)

:-) That should draw him in. Plus he is the guy who let a person making $50k a year drive that 735 and own a $700k home (double :-)

Quite frankly, everyday folks have no idea how their mortgage affects the securitization process. Nobody, especially Congress has done (or wants to do for CYA reasons) a good job of explaining that process.

If people were to understand, say,

  • That forced lending standards vis-à-vis Congressional mandates such as CRA, FHA and a bunch of ridiculous other stuff was the root problem it may hurt someone’s political image.

Or, that,

  • Fannie/Freddie (a Government Sponsored Entity AKA Democrat Party political piggy bank) was consolidating all these horrible loans and implying a taxpayer guarantee to help Obama’s advisors to make tens of millions of dollars, it might hurt his feigned image as a prophet.

Or, that;

  • Bush and McCain twice tried to fix the Fannie/Freddie mess (after all, Bush seemed to forget himself last night)while Democrats laughed at them, it may hurt the messiah’s image and make Reid/Pelosi look like Marx/Lenin.

Finally, that Wall Street took these loans with their forced lending standards, implied guarantees, regulatory blessing, political intervention and assumed the ultimate credit risk (by assuming the government would make good on the guarantee) then turned them into marketable securities which fed economic growth (never receives credit); then gets to be the bad guy and left without a chair now that the music has stopped is globally loathed, is a bit specious, shallow and self serving.

I understand these matters are a bit complex, but then folks should reserve their opinions and not use talking points to assign blame. Plus, I am pretty sure the facts could be drawn in crayon, explained to a sixth grader and they could figure out the mischaracterizations, flaws and people that should wear a bag on their heads.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

Well, I consider myself pretty much everyday

Achance (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 10:32AM EST (link)

folks, and I certainly didn’t go to Wharton or Hahvud Biz to get all the best “let’s screw over the rubes” skills, but I do understand the role of Freddie and Fannie and Democrat ideology in this. That said, some of those smart biz school boys, who had to have an inkling of the underlying problems, manufactured this unregulated instrument, the MBS, hyped it, extolled its virtues, and paid a lot of lobbying money and campaign contributions to keep their playground unattended. Now, forgive this unsophisticated rube if I want to round some of them up, shoot them, put their wives and daughters on the street corner, and burn their houses.

In Vino Veritas

If only...

mbecker908 (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 10:33AM EST (link)

and had I, I would happily take the blame for about anything. From my island. Or my Beneteau.

In hindsight, however, there are three major things that happened.

  1. “Real estate professionals” – NOTE: not mortgage guys who are really just money finders – sold everybody a bill of goods titled “Of course the value of your house is going to keep going up, they’re not making any more land you know.”
  2. “Homeowners” stopped looking at their house as mama’s nest and instead started viewing it as an asset on their personal balance sheet and a big part of their retirement program.
  3. Wall St looked at MBS as a liquid asset when in fact, it was no more liquid than the real estate in the portfolios securing those loans.

And FWIW, I’ve only written one loan that defaulted. It was a divorce, she got a huge cash settlement out of the refi of their $2.5MM house and she was supposed to make the mortgage payments. She “forgot” since the loan was in his name not hers. Fortunately, they were able to sell the house and cure the default.

forgetting one thing

Pentagon16 (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 11:17AM EST (link)

Uh, maybe some on here are forgetting a tiny little thing called a Presidential ELECTION in about 34 days?!!

so you can proclaim the conservative holier than thou creed all you want about letting the great depression “thin the forest”..

but you are not even beginning to address the fact that if the GOP does nothing then Obama will win the Presidency, and then in February they will be passing even more onerous legislation than the libs are talking about today.

Might want to think about that for a second..

“Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren’t like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment”- Barack Carter Obama

An Ex-Lax now, or an enema later.

streetwise (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 11:24AM EST (link)

The choice seems pretty clear to me :>)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Dominoes are Lining Up for the GOP to Knockdown

FWGuy (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 11:35AM EST (link)

If you let the credit markets freeze up and the Libor rate is the first sign that is happening. Expect the dominoes falling to start taking out banks around the world and the USA and the taxpayer will be paying hundreds of Billions since the FDIC fund will run dry very quickly. Also, expect your 401K funds and pension funds to take very large losses that will take several years to recover their original value.

Get out of stocks now while you have a chance, the 1929 depression is just around the corner. Thanks to the GOP led effort to “Kill the Bailout” allot of people or going to loose money and unemployment is going to go up sharply. The largest and one of the oldest auto dealerships in the USA just closed their doors Wednesday. They are just one of many more dominoes that are going to fall, if the House and Senate doesn’t wake up soon.

Hard News:
Liquidity in the money markets in maturities over a week is desperately scarce,” said Tim Bond, head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital in London. “A near-term solution to the crisis is urgent. Unchecked, the current crisis would turn into a self-reinforcing vortex of defaults, bank capital contraction and deep recession within a matter of weeks.”

Money-market rates signal banks have all but stopped lending to each other. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout plan, which proposes removing tainted assets from bank balance sheets, may be cut back in size, U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt said Thursday. The U.S. faces a “painful” recession if the package isn’t approved, President George W. Bush said Wednesday.

“The message coming from our money-market traders is that nothing’s working,” said Padhraic Garvey, the Amsterdam-based head of investment-grade debt strategy at ING Bank. “Banks are not dealing with one another and the situation has gotten worse. The real market is probably about 10 to 20 basis points above where Libor fixings are.”

mbecker908: Home-wrecker! :>) nt

streetwise (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 11:39AM EST (link)
 

The Dominoes are Lined-up for GOP

FWGuy (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 11:51AM EST (link)

If you let the credit markets freeze up and the Libor rate is the first sign that is happening. Expect the dominoes falling to start taking out banks around the world and the USA and the taxpayer will be paying hundreds of Billions since the FDIC fund will run dry very quickly. Also, expect your 401K funds and pension funds to take very large losses that will take several years to recover their original value.

Get out of stocks now while you have a chance, the 1929 depression is just around the corner. Thanks to the GOP led effort to “Kill the Bailout” allot of people or going to loose money and unemployment is going to go up sharply. The largest and one of the oldest auto dealerships in the USA just closed their doors Wednesday. They are just one of many more dominoes that are going to fall, if the House and Senate doesn’t wake up soon.

Hard News:
Liquidity in the money markets in maturities over a week is desperately scarce,” said Tim Bond, head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital in London. “A near-term solution to the crisis is urgent. Unchecked, the current crisis would turn into a self-reinforcing vortex of defaults, bank capital contraction and deep recession within a matter of weeks.”

Money-market rates signal banks have all but stopped lending to each other. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout plan, which proposes removing tainted assets from bank balance sheets, may be cut back in size, U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt said Thursday. The U.S. faces a “painful” recession if the package isn’t approved, President George W. Bush said Wednesday.

“The message coming from our money-market traders is that nothing’s working,” said Padhraic Garvey, the Amsterdam-based head of investment-grade debt strategy at ING Bank. “Banks are not dealing with one another and the situation has gotten worse. The real market is probably about 10 to 20 basis points above where Libor fixings are.”

Four Points

Leverkuhn (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 11:57AM EST (link)

First, you can take your snarky attitude and shove it. I’m talking about what’s best for the country, not just the GOP.

Second, I’m thinking about the long-term consequences, not the short term consequences. If we’ve got to take a recession no matter what, the for heaven’s sake let’s not undermine the free market system and water-log the U.S. treasury department with debt while we’re desperately trying to find a “cure.”

Third, it’s not clear to me that the Democrats don’t have just as much riding on this thing right now. There’s a reason why Reid/Pelosi/Frank want a bailout plan: they know their a**es are on the line too. If nobody does anything, and the economy tanks, then a general anti-incumbent sentiment could have very unpredictable results for both parties.

Fourth, I am sick and tired of hearing people in Washington – both Republicans and Democrats – saying “we have no choice” but to take this or that step. The last time I checked, this was still a democracy. That means we the people still get to be consulted about big decisions like the future of our economic system or the fiscal solvency of our government. It’s pretty clear to me that the federal government, both Democrats and Republicans, have sat on their a*es while this situation got totally out of control. So pardon me if I don’t exactly trust them now that they say they’ve got a last-minute “solution” to the problem. I want them to make a compelling case *to convince me that the costs of no bailout are so much worse than the recession we’ve already got in front of us, that it’s worth spending the $700 billion they want to spend, and nationalizing a large part of our financial system in the process.

“Senator Joe Biden is … a man so full of cr*p his speeches bear an awful resemblance to twenty minutes of flatulence preceded by ‘Good evening ladies and gentlemen,’ and followed by ‘God bless America.’”

- Leverkuhn

 
 

The Dominoes are Lined-up for GOP

FWGuy (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:00PM EST (link)

If you let the credit markets freeze up and the Libor rate is the first sign that this is happening. Expect the dominoes falling to start taking out banks around the world and the USA. The US taxpayer will be paying hundreds of Billions since the FDIC fund will run dry very quickly. Also, expect your 401K funds and pension funds to take very large losses that will take several years to recover their original value.

Get out of stocks now while you have a chance, the 1929 depression is just around the corner. Thanks to the GOP led effort to “Kill the Bailout” allot of people or going to loose money and unemployment is going to go up sharply. The largest and one of the oldest auto dealerships in the USA just closed their doors Wednesday. They are just one of many more dominoes that are going to fall, if the House and Senate doesn’t wake up soon.

Hard News:
Liquidity in the money markets in maturities over a week is desperately scarce,” said Tim Bond, head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital in London. “A near-term solution to the crisis is urgent. Unchecked, the current crisis would turn into a self-reinforcing vortex of defaults, bank capital contraction and deep recession within a matter of weeks.”

Money-market rates signal banks have all but stopped lending to each other. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout plan, which proposes removing tainted assets from bank balance sheets, may be cut back in size, U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt said Thursday. The U.S. faces a “painful” recession if the package isn’t approved, President George W. Bush said Wednesday.

“The message coming from our money-market traders is that nothing’s working,” said Padhraic Garvey, the Amsterdam-based head of investment-grade debt strategy at ING Bank. “Banks are not dealing with one another and the situation has gotten worse. The real market is probably about 10 to 20 basis points above where Libor fixings are.”

FWGuy...you are an idiot...

Attack Mode (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:06PM EST (link)

You are advising people to pull all there money out of stocks in order to prevent a collapse? Nesflash: If people all get scared an pull out that is what will cause a DEPRESSION Why the moderators and directors allow you to remain a member of this community is beyond me. Can’t you spout your socialist msg of doom somewhere else.

“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.

I'm with you, Leverkuhn n/t

Vegas_Rick (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:13PM EST (link)

n/t

“God is great, beer is good and people are crazy.”- Billy Currington

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.

there are alternative rescue plans

JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:18PM EST (link)

Why is it that people always focus on the false choise between imprudent action and no action?

How about choosing a better solution?

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!

 
 
 
 

FDIC May Need $150 Billion Bailout as Local Bank Failures Mount

FWGuy (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:27PM EST (link)

As some financial experts warned this would happen in September and October 2007. The delay in not acting sweeping changes and bailouts to stop the subprime mortgage crisis from spilling over into all-out financial crisis. Is now catching up with us.

I personally remember Jim Cramer as just one person who said, things had to be done on a broad basis 1-year ago or there would be a melt down of the financial system and allot of people would loose their homes.

Now I read – IndyMac, which had $32 billion in assets when it went into receivership, is the most expensive bank failure the FDIC has ever covered. And that record may not stand for long.

By the end of 2009, about 100 U.S. banks with collective assets of more than $800 billion will fail, predicts Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, a Torrance, California-based firm that sells its analysis of FDIC data to investors.

It's not going to be Armageddon,'' says Mark Vaughan, an economist and assistant vice president for banking supervision and regulation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Virginia.But it’s going to be bad.”

The FDIC knows which banks are at risk; it has a watch list with 117 institutions. The agency won’t disclose their names because doing so could cause depositors to panic and pull out all of their funds.

It won’t take many more failures before the FDIC itself runs out of money. The agency had $45.2 billion in its coffers as of June 30, far short of the $200 billion Whalen says it will need to pay claims by the end of next year. The U.S. Treasury will almost certainly come to the rescue.

Regardless of who wins control of the White House and Congress in November, no politician is likely to vote in favor of leaving federally insured depositors out in the cold.

The subprime crisis — which started in the suburbs of California and Florida and migrated through the alchemy of securitization to Wall Street investment banks — has come almost full circle, spreading its toxins to the very lenders who first extended those teaser-rate, no-document mortgages to homeowners.

In 2006, IndyMac was the largest provider of mortgages that didn’t require borrowers to provide proof of their incomes. And as of mid-September, investors were worried that Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest thrift in the U.S., would be the next bank to go belly up.

A federal takeover of Washington Mutual, which has assets of $310 billion, could cost taxpayers $24 billion more, according to Richard Bove, an analyst at Miami-based Ladenburg Thalmann & Co.

Slower To Hit

The reckoning that has run through Wall Street, claiming investment banks Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns among its victims, has been slower to hit Main Street. In mid- 2007, Wall Street firms began disclosing losses on their packages of securitized home loans.

From August 2007 to September 2008, banks worldwide wrote down more than $500 billion. Regional banks, by contrast, have waited to write off their bad mortgages, hoping the housing market would improve and defaults would level off. Instead, they’ve risen.

FDIC-insured banks charged off $26.4 billion of bad loans in the second quarter of 2008, the most since 1991.

 

I don't think it will pass

JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:29PM EST (link)

People are starting to figure out that this is crisis is caused by the application of the mark-to-market accounting rule and that there are alternatives.

http://www.redstate.com/diaries/jsobieski/2008/sep/25/a-modest-proposal-that-could-save-the-us-go/

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!

If that is the concern, I'd focus on these comments from Francis

The_Gadfly (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:33PM EST (link)

There is a lot of intelligent commentary out there, to the effect that Congress needs not act immediately to pass a bailout bill for distressed mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Paulson, Bernanke, and now President Bush have emphatically made the opposite point, that we have to act immediately.

There would be a lot of benefit from giving this proposal a more considered hearing in Congress, of that there’s no doubt.

The problem is that there’s no time left on Congress’s schedule. They leave town on Friday the 26th to go home and get re-elected.

There is time left in Congress’s schedule if they do the people’s work instead of working on their lining their own po- I mean re-election campaigns, there is some time to further consider how to proceed. It would of course require that the congresscritters actually debate the issues instead of grandstanding, and focus on resolving them instead of scoring political points.

So if we don’t have a reasonable, workable bill by noon on Friday, John McCain should make a speech in front of the cameras demanding that Congress stay in session to work on the crisis, because if they don’t THEY will be responsible for the collapse of Wall St. If Congress balks at extending the session, it will the Dems fault, because they set the schedules in BOTH houses of Congress. It would be even better if he was flanked by both minority leaders while making the speech.

“Let’s screw the rubes” achance?

Marcus_Traianus (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 1:48PM EST (link)

We have both been here a long time my friend, but I have to disagree. Wall Street’s living is made on economic terms, full stop, and end of story. The deals made here drive financial liquidity all over the globe. There may be a few bad actors, as there are in most professions, and I would be happy to put the kick me sign on them when they take the perp walk. But I doubt you will see very much of that since most of that culpability lies elsewhere.

I don’t want to be too didactic, because you probably know this very well. However, one of the primary means of finance is securitization. Almost everything falls under that umbrella including credit card receivables, student loans and the list goes on. These instruments and corporate debt are the sine non qua of our entire capitalist system. The art, or in this case, the Achilles heel is how they are valued. Ultimately, the very bad assumption was that home values would continue to appreciate and the government was actually serious about guaranteeing non performance on the ridiculous loans institutions were pretty much forced to make. That latter part is not to be overlooked, since this is where Alt/a – subprime come in and where the entire ball of dung started rolling.

Without being too revealing, I know the forced loan part from experience. I was in a position to speak very loudly at the beginning, and was there being dragged along kicking and screaming once Congress, in their infinite wisdom, decided that financial institutions should be arms of their socialist causes. Want a point at which the demise of our free market commenced? Look no further then this Marxist economic philosophy disguised as democratic legislation. I can also tell you for the record that many industry associations supported both the Bush and McCain Fannie/Freddie reforms. But the deeper Fannie/Freddie lobbying pockets won the day.

Wall Street was placed smack in the middle if this since, where else could one securitize and hedge debt. The perfect patsy, don’t you think? Everybody hates all those “rich guys” anyway. As an aside, there are tens of thousands of people working on the Street that aren’t Harvard educated “rich guys”. Notice that Barney Frank and Chris Dodd are all of a sudden; heros? Notice Obama taking all that heat for being the biggest Fannie/Freddie money recipient? No? Me either, I just see everybody on the hunt for today’s “Enron” (just a metaphor and I am not defending them).

Look, there were some very dumb moves like Bear Stearns selling credit guarantees on MBS securities when they knew the market was on a slide. That’s just a greedy and dumb attempt to make short term profits; if my opinion matters they should have fried forever as a victim of their own stupidity; carcass hung from Broadway and Wall for all to see. So should anyone else guilty of blatant, self created stupidity. But when it comes to Fannie/Freddie linked instruments, downstream effects of their demise (exempli gratia – AIG) and central pieces of the financial system I am afraid we are left without a choice. We must pass this investment in America’s future.

In closing, my distinct impression from your response is I insulted you or the flyover folks in some manner. That is certainly not my intention nonetheless should that be the case, my sincere apologies.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

I know I'm painting with too broad a brush, Marcus,

Achance (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 4:29PM EST (link)

My State has a few tens of billions here and there in various investment accounts and over the years I met and dealt with a lot of the Wall Street consultants and investment managers. Most were good people, a little out of their element in Juneau or Anchorage, but good people interested in doing the job they were hired for. Some, only some, but enough to notice, were insufferable elitists that made you want to count your fingers after you shook hands with them and who acted like they were just enduring taking our money until the next plane could get them out. I know the attitude and I’ve felt the condecension towards anyone who didn’t go to their school and travel in their rarified circles.

In Vino Veritas

It looks like the House Republicans are asserting some backbone

JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 5:49PM EST (link)

Thank God. The rumblings I am hearing about an alternative proposal is FAR superior to the Paulson plan.

It sounds like the House plan is really close to what is described below;

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2008/9/22/heresaplantoavoidanew_rtc

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!

 
 
 
 
 

While RS 3.0 Was Down This Evening....

cmugrad Thursday, September 25th at 9:54PM EST (link)

…WAMU was seized by the FDIC and parts of its were apparently sold to Chase.

Wow! Thanks for writing that!

QueenOfCups (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 9:57PM EST (link)

I was trying to get in all evening and saw my comment from around 5pm CDT.

Are we under attack from the crazies?

 
 

Burning Down The House: What Caused Our Economic Crisis?

mfsheldon (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 10:02PM EST (link)

This is a video you should see if you want to understand what caused this crisis…

Burning Down The House: What Caused Our Economic Crisis?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH–o

"if the GOP does nothing" is NOT the proposed course of action

JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 10:59PM EST (link)

by those against the Paulson Plan.

FYI, your rationale could be used to support the most disasterous of public policy—the rush out and do something, regardless of whether it is helpful or harmful

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!