So Barack Obama is running ads on the Olympic Games, promising to create five million new jobs by way of building an “alternative-energy” economy. This is also something Nancy Pelosi talks about a fair bit. And of course the newly-created jobs are to be of the Good, High-Paying™ variety, which is Democrat-speak for: Union.
What’s this all about? In a word: Redistribution.
Let me explain…
You can count the hoped-for economic output of five million jobs that don’t exist today in a handful of ways. Perhaps the most conservative would be to double per-capita GDP (perhaps half of all Americans have a job) and multiply. A shade under $500 billion in new output, from alternative fuels and all the associated economic activity.
That’s bigger than the Defense Department. It’s several times more than the total profits of America’s food-producing industries. It’s more than half the total amount of money that we spend buying crude oil every year.
Heck, it’s even bigger than the total revenues of Exxon Mobil. So let’s at least give the Democrats credit for dreaming big.
So how does a government go about creating a major new industry out of nothing? Especially if they hope much of the labor will be unionized?
Two ways: either you take money from someone else and spend it building your new industry. Or you create legislated “incentives” for private actors to do it for you.
Here’s the problem: in either case, you’re performing a non-economic act. That’s just definitional, because if you have to take money from existing uses and redirect it somewhere it won’t go by itself, you’re being inefficient.
So that’s the first problem: creating an alternative energy industry may make sense as social policy, and I’m not going to engage that argument in this post. But in his Olympic advertising, Obama is selling it as economic policy, and that’s not what it is.
In fact, his problem is even worse than just inefficiency. If you’re going to divert resources to create a new industry, you also have to shut down the uses to which the resources are being put today.
And people aren’t just sticking that money in their piggybanks. The new taxes and incentives that Obama wants to use to generate five million new jobs will come from money that is already creating jobs today.
Redistribution in support of socialism isn’t a particularly novel idea, nor is it known to work all that well. At least it doesn’t work all that well if the goal is to create new jobs.
Redistribution doesn’t create jobs. Good old-fashioned risk-taking and capital deployment create jobs. That’s the kind of thing I and other businesspeople do every single day, and government has never, ever done.
If Barack Obama really wants to create jobs, he should stop running for President and start up a business venture. Except that his wife has already said that young people shouldn’t aspire to careers in business.
She may be right. Going into business, taking risk, and creating jobs might not be a very rewarding thing to do, if her husband follows through on some of the stuff he’s promised to do.
And keep firmly in mind that Obama is selling this warmed-over Carterism as an economic policy. It says so, in big white letters, right on his television commercial.
So my question for The Audacious One is this:
Senator, how many jobs will you need to destroy in order to create the five million new ones you’ve promised us?
-Francis Cianfrocca
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
He Needs To Read Economics
horaceox (Diary) Monday, August 18th at 7:20AM EST (link)In fact, he only needs one lesson.
http://www.myelectionanalysis.com
Excellent Blackhedd.
mbecker908 (Diary) Monday, August 18th at 9:13AM EST (link)Just as a baseline, I have some questions about ethanol.
I think the answers to those questions will put the five million jobs, and their cost, in perspective.
Not just the Feds
Next93 (Diary) Monday, August 18th at 9:31AM EST (link)Here in the midwest, there are also state subsidies.
Also, don’t forget the economic impact of the duties (or is it a total embargo?) on sugar-cane derived ethanol from countries like Brazil.
There used to be a time when politicians would get votes by buying people drinks. Some people think that practice has been outlawed, I think the politicians just figured out a way to substitute one form of alchohol for another.
Obama was The One in 2008.
He’ll be a BIGGER one in 2012.
To answer your questions.
skorrent Monday, August 18th at 10:02AM EST (link)“So how does a government go about creating a major new industry out of nothing? Especially if they hope much of the labor will be unionized?”
If you consider the regulations, taxes and incentives that will be necessary, you can guess that 20+% of the jobs will be for regulators, tax collecters and inspecters. That’s one million new government jobs, and you can bet they will be unionized. See? Simple. :>)
McCain's New Commercial
ss396 Monday, August 18th at 11:17AM EST (link)Or at least that’s what your post should be.
“Wealth redistribution doesn’t create new jobs; it only redistributes existing ones.
Do you want your job to be redistributed?”
If you pay someone to sit on his butt, you can’t be surprised when he does.
I saw the Obama add and thought: Empty Suit
The_Gadfly (Diary) Monday, August 18th at 12:11PM EST (link)Big on feel good, vacuous on details.
In a related vein, the current issue of NR has an article about Picken’s plan for wind farming. His numbers don’t work any better than Barrack’s, and he at least understands something about business. Okay, he understands a lot about business, and a fair bit about politics, and he’s decided the politics of the situation means by properly configuring his business now, he will be able to pocket a lot of cash, even if the only reason it makes sense is politics.
The reality is, if it were economically feasible to run a business around an energy source other than oil, somebody somewhere in the U.S. would be doing it. Because if there was, they’d be rolling in cash. And the fact that nobody runs such a business, is all the proof you need that it isn’t feasible.
Running time's about 2:00
Next93 (Diary) Monday, August 18th at 1:12PM EST (link)I thought the same thing, and sat down with a stopwatch. I think I can bring it in at about 2:00. That’s probably too long for anything except the internet, but, dammit, there are political concepts that can’t be expressed in a 30-second sound byte.
Blackhedd, would you be interested in collaborating on turning this into a video?
Obama was The One in 2008.
He’ll be a BIGGER one in 2012.
Obama will cost you
john_barry Monday, August 18th at 5:54PM EST (link)http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_1NjDBt5oLfU/SKnqDgfHcEI/AAAAAAAAAes/M5yOKtkJJKA/s320/ob.jpg
john barry
Obama will cost you
john_barry Monday, August 18th at 6:06PM EST (link)Obama’s high taxation policies will cripple enterprise and boost unemployment. So embedded are Socialist policies in France and Germany that conservative governments have been unable to reverse the damage done. A proper reform of the French and German economies would result in political oblivion for the conservative parties.
Obama is a Socialist on the European model who proposes the failed policies found wanting in Europe. Expect unemployment to hit 9% under a President Obama.
john barry
I think that's just oversimplified
duckhawk Monday, August 18th at 9:13PM EST (link)>
Or you create legislated “incentives” for private actors to do it for you.
>
Here’s the problem: in either case, you’re performing a non-economic act. That’s just definitional, because if you have to take money from existing uses and redirect it somewhere it won’t go by itself, you’re being inefficient.
This is only true in the ideal case. Nobody can claim that the energy market is perfectly competitive, or that externalities are priced well enough to send market signals. So nothing here is an actual rebuttal to incentivisation schemes (like Obama’s), even if promising 5 million jobs is ridiculous per se.
My guess is that barriers to entry in the energy market are colossal, indirect costs of fossil fuels aren’t priced at all, and some producers have real pricing power. Changing these things really is economic policy, and really can be more efficient that the status quo.
Rats.
itrytobenice (Diary) Monday, August 18th at 10:01PM EST (link)No recommend button.
Good job once again, blackhedd.
Proper grammar saves lives.
Let’s eat Grandma.
Let’s eat, Grandma.