I took a little bit of grief over my view of Neil’s analysis earlier this week, so I wanted to share my own perspective on why Tuesday was such a downer for me. I was under the impression McCain/Palin were closing the gap etc., so it made this even more stinging.
The table below shows in no particular order the states going to Obama by double digits according to RCP. They may not be the latest set of results, but it will suffice here. These add up to 262 EVs. Another 16 EVs are from states Obama won by 8-9% (CO and IA).
So even if we had flipped 2-3% of Obama voters or gotten 5-6% of people who stayed home to vote
McCain, he still would have lost the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. This is why I contend that Tuesday was not even close. I’m not trying to say anything how conservative or liberal the country may be, just that Tuesday was a blowout according to the numbers.
| State | Gap | EV |
|---|---|---|
| CT | 21 | 7 |
| DE | 25 | 3 |
| DC | 86 | 3 |
| IL | 25 | 21 |
| ME | 17 | 4 |
| MD | 23 | 10 |
| MI | 16 | 17 |
| MN | 10 | 10 |
| NM | 15 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 55 |
| HI | 45 | 4 |
| VT | 35 | 3 |
| MA | 26 | 12 |
| NH | 10 | 4 |
| NJ | 15 | 15 |
| PA | 11 | 21 |
| NY | 25 | 31 |
| RI | 28 | 4 |
| WI | 13 | 10 |
| NV | 12 | 5 |
| OR | 14 | 7 |
| WA | 17 | 11 |
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
Grief? Who?
Bill S (Diary) Friday, November 7th at 8:47AM EST (link)Well, the obvious point to argue is that you are implying that he wouldn’t have had a prayer in any of the double-digit states. A good campaign strategy would have anticipated that these states would be weak and that they would require more effort. I suspect that a better-executed campaign on the ground could have helped – and PA is the obvious place for this…a turn of 21 EVs would have been huge.
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins