It’s a pretty good ad.

However, I suggest that while the pipeline decision is terrible policy, there are potential winners: the railroads.

Increasing rail transport of oil from Canada is an interesting way around the problems of building a pipeline that the administration’s green allies just don’t want. and according to this report, railroads could eventually carry far more Canadian oil than any pipeline on the drawing board. And this bit is too rich to ignore:

The study commissioned by the State Department estimated that rail alone could haul 1.25 million barrels of Canadian crude daily by 2030, or nearly twice the amount of the proposed pipeline.

“U.S. and Canadian rail sectors have a history of expanding to meet clearly defined demand increases,” according to the study, which cited North Dakota’s booming oil patch as a recent example.

That would be the same State Department the White House over-ruled in its Keystone decision.

A truly cynical mind would say that blocking the pipeline, with the clear understanding that railroads could more than make up for the difference, was actually a gift to one of the President’s great supporters: Warren Buffett. Through Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett owns Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF). And yes, the company ships petroleum products, even from Canada’s oil sands, though its partnership with CN.

Amazing thing, those fungible commodities. They always find a way to market.

I was honored to meet with the House Tea Party Caucus yesterday to discuss the daunting challenges we face as a nation, in particular our spending and our mounting national debt.

I told the members that watching the budget debate in Washington lately has made me feel like Alice in “Alice in Wonderland.” Are our leaders in touch with reality? Is this really happening? One can only conclude that most in Congress subscribe to “Wonderland Economics.”

Our national debt is already more than 95% of our GDP. Our unfunded liabilities are at least $112 trillion. Standard & Poors and Moodys have warned that they will yank our triple-A credit rating if we continue on our current trajectory. Interest payments on our national debt are the fastest growing component in the federal budget.

Economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of the University of Maryland and Harvard University, respectively, studied the effect of national debt on economic growth in 44 countries spanning 200 years of history.

What they found is chilling: Countries that allow their debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 90% usually go into significant economic decline. As the nations hit this debt intolerance ceiling, market interest rates rise suddenly and quickly, and they can no longer grow their way out of their problems.

The United States is at that point today. Are our leaders listening? Are they awake? Unless we reverse course immediately, we face a collapse similar to that of Greece.

President Obama and his economic team have failed this leadership challenge to significantly cut our spending. The U.S. Senate has failed the test. Sadly, so have the Republican leaders in the House, despite many opportunities to lead America to lower spending.

Criticizing the most powerful leaders in my own party, including the Majority Leader who also happens to be my own Congressman, probably strikes many in the Republican Establishment and pundit-sphere as politically unwise or imprudent. And they may be right. But the facts are the facts and the real insanity is punting to the next vote.

This brings me to the subject of the debt ceiling.

I challenge the Republican leadership to show the way. Honor the current debt ceiling. Cut current fiscal year spending to 2008 levels. Eliminate corporate welfare. Go hard after domestic spending that is not absolutely necessary. Reduce defense spending unrelated to protecting us from terrorism or to concluding the Iraq and Afghanistan missions. And reform entitlements, restoring their solvency and the solvency of our country.

The time to act is now, not next year or the year after the elections.

We MUST take immediate action to avert the kind of austerity programs that were imposed on Greece by its creditors. I would rather that we decide how and when to reduce our federal spending as opposed to having China and our other creditors dictate to us what must be cut. That would be the ultimate failure for us.

This nation may never have faced a threat more ominous than the threat it faces today.

But I believe, and recent polls confirm, that the American people arent afraid to face this crisis head-on, and we have the character and courage to do what we know in our bones is right. Its time for our leaders to reflect and represent the courage of those they lead.

Originally posted at BearingDrift.com: “Virginia’s Conservative Voice”

Former Chairwoman of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Jamie Radtke, as speculated, has filed paperwork to run for U.S. Senate, reports WTVR in Richmond.

Radtke is currently leading our completely non-scientific candidates’ poll for the GOP nomination with 211 votes. Trailing closely behind her is former U.S. Senator George Allen, who has yet to file, but is expected to, with 208. No other candidate contends in the poll.

According to WTVR:

…she mailed in the papers on December 23, after gaining the support of family members and friends and raising some money from political backers.

When asked about the primary reason for her decision to run, the Moseley mom cited her three children, who she fears will suffer the fallout from a national debt that continues to balloon.

Also see Washington Wire from the Wall Street Journal

Image originally found at Sam Adams Alliance

Cross-posted at BearingDrift.com

Nina Totenberg, correspondent for National Public Radio, took a shot at Christianity on TV (<a href=”http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/12/20/nprs_nina_totenberg_apologizes_for_saying_christmas.html”>Real Clear Politics</a>).

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<blockquote>”And I was at – forgive the expression – a Christmas party at the Department of Justice and people actually were really worried about this,” said Totenberg.</blockquote>
FORGIVE THE EXPRESSION????

Does she consider “Christmas” an offensive word, an untoward word, something she needs to be forgiven for saying?

Remember, NPR fired Juan Williams for saying that he gets nervous around Muslims on a plane.  Nina Totenberg just declared “Christmas” an offensive term.

<a href=”http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130712737″>NPR</a> said Williams’ comments were “inconsistent with our editorial standards and practices, and undermined his credibility as a news analyst with NPR.”

NPR certainly wouldn’t take the tact that offending Christians is fine but offending Muslims can get you fired.

Ok, the fact that Totenberg never had a tenth of the credibility as a news analyst that Williams did shouldn’t save her.  Will NPR claim that attacks on Christianity aren’t “inconsistent” with their editorial standards and practices?  Seems like that would be a fair defense. 

Nevertheless, let’s take a walk down Totenberg lane.  Nina Totenberg, sweet, innocent, inoffensive, non-partisan, unbaised Nina Totenberg said that God should’ve given AIDS to Sen. Jesse Helms or his grandchildren.

Seriously.  Watch the video:
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Nina Totenberg said God would give AIDS to Jesse Helms’ grandchildren.  “…he ought to be worried about what’s going on in the Good Lord’s mind, because if there’s retributive justice, he’ll get AIDS from a transfusion or one of his grandchildren will get it.”

And Juan Williams was fired.

Of course, Nina Totenberg, NPR’s legal correspondent, had her wedding officiated by Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg.  President Obama nominated Totenberg’s sister to be a US District Court judge.  While Totenberg was covering the Bill Clinton press conference announcing Lani Guinier as Asst. Attorney General, credible little Nina gave Lani a big hug.

That’s journalism!

Nina was also behind the attacks on Republican Supreme Court nominees Clarance Thomas and Douglas Ginsburg.  Somehow, I never found a negative thing she’s written about a Democrat nominee, but I’ll keep looking.

So, NPR, is Nina Totenberg consistent with your “editorial standards and practices?”  How’s her “credibility as a news analyst with NPR?”

And what about Christmas does she think is so offensive that she needs to preface saying the word by saying “forgive the expression?”

Nina needs to go.  And if NPR can’t treat employees equally, than NPR needs to go with her.

(Originally posted by Brian Kirwin at BearingDrift.com)

Show Notes:

72 hours to go! It’s the weekend before Election Day, 2010 and this is our 100th Episode of Virginia Politics On Demand!

This is a jam-packed, all-star show as we welcome the Republican Whip of the United States House of Representatives, and the man who could become your next majority leader, if not Speaker of the House, Congressman Eric Cantor from Virginia’s 7th District!

Cantor also recently penned a blueprint, with Rep. Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Paul Ryan, for how a new generation of Republicans will govern in “Young Guns”

Additionally, we are joined by a man who is no stranger to elections in Virginia, none other than former Governor and U.S. Senator George Allen, also author of “What Washington Can Learn from the World of Sports”.

In my interview with Congressman Cantor, we talk about whether the GOP “Pledge to America” will lead us into a “ditch”. What the pledge actually hopes to accomplish in terms of creating jobs, ending economic uncertainty, and making America more competitive. What can the GOP realistically can hope to accomplish in terms of cutting spending and taxes in the 112th Congress. And, will Obamacare be defunded?

With Governor Allen, we talk specifically about Virginia races, the importance of the next 72 hours, DCCC dirty tricks, the president’s visit to Virginia – specifically to Allen’s old congressional district, and a little Lions-Redskins football – in political context, of course!

If you can’t make it to a rally this weekend for conservative Republicans, be sure to listen to this podcast before Election Day!

Listen to the interview at BearingDrift.com

Chris Christie might be getting some deserved attention right now for his superior leadership in New Jersey, but it’s Bob McDonnell and his 63% approval rating that has raised $2.5 million for GOP candidates nationwide.

Good read today in Politics Daily about McDonnell’s recent campaigning throughout the country, including in New Hampshire, with Republican Governors Association Chair Haley Barbour and possible speculation on what might be on the Virginia governor’s agenda for 2012.

Such talk is always good fun, such as McD running for President or VP, but my personal favorite is that he becomes chairman of the RGA, and then runs for president in 2016. What he does in 2014 to keep himself busy until the campaign for president heats up in 2015 is anyone’s guess, but he shouldn’t run for U.S. Senate – that’s the job for Virginia’s Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to take on U.S. Sen. Mark Warner in a battle for the ages.

At any rate, McDonnell finishes up his campaign swing here in Virginia with Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, Cuccinelli, and Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Pat Mullins in a series of stops all across the Commonwealth on Halloween and Monday:

Sunday, October 31st, 2010

Northern Virginia Victory 2010 Rally at 1:30pm
Fairfax County Republican Committee HQ
4246 Chain Bridge Road
Farifax, Virginia

Charlottesville Victory 2010 Rally at 5:00pm
Albemarle/Charlottesville GOP HQ
455 Albemarle Square
Charlottesville, Virginia

Blacksburg Victory 2010 Rally at 7:30pm
Montgomery County/Virginia Tech Airport
1601 Tech Center Drive
Blacksburg, Virginia

Monday, November 1st, 2010

Abingdon Victory 2010 Rally at 8:00am
Virginia Highlands Airport
18521 Lee Highway
Abingdon, Virginia

Lynchburg Victory 2010 Rally at 11am
Lynchburg GOP HQ
3700 Candler’s Mountain Road – Unit #2
Lynchburg, Virginia

Danville Victory 2010 Rally at 2pm
Danville Victory Office
625 Piney Forest Road – Suite 207
Danville, Virginia

Virginia Beach Victory 2010 Rally at 5:15pm
Crowne Plaza Hotel
4453 Bonney Road
Virginia Beach, Virginia

Originally posted by J.R. Hoeft at BearingDrift.com

This is still bad news for the incumbent who has consistently polled at or below approximately 40%. The poll surveyed over 400 voters and was conducted over the period Oct. 15-21.

Kenny Golden, the independent, is polling at 5%. He said that he would drop out of the race if he was not over 10%. However, at this point, I’m not certain whether he stays in the race or not will have much impact. In fact, it could be helping Rigell as disaffected Nye voters see Golden as the alternative.

WVEC conducted a live chat with Dr. Kidd.

Originally posted by J.R. Hoeft at BearingDrift.com

We’re not going to waste your time with our endorsements. You know who we support. We encourage you to get out and vote Republican. There’s no more time to waste for our nation’s future.

However, we will be intellectually honest and try to accurately convey how we see the next week playing out in the Commonwealth of Virginia and what the final outcome of the Nov. 2 elections will be.

We welcome your predictions and thoughts in the comments section.

2nd District
Winner: Scott Rigell
Rigell’s polling, ability to connect with voters, pledge to the Tea Party, business acumen, capability in debates, and principled stand on Congressional reforms carry the day.

The desperation by incumbent Congressman Glenn Nye is evident.

In his podcast with us, Nye said he was a different type of Democrat – an independent one. Yet, just mere hours after talking with J.R., he played “gotcha” politics, along with the rest of the Democratic Party of Virginia, over an email issue that was quickly resolved in Republican circles – and could have been resolved without feigned outrage at the 11th hour of a campaign.

Nye is NOT a different type of Democrat. He is NOT an independent.

What we saw over the email situation is that Nye is networked into the Democratic establishment, and is just as willing to coordinate and engage in politics-as-usual. He’ll do whatever it takes to save his seat.

It is clear that injecting race into the campaign at the last minute is an attempt to energize black voters in the district’s urban areas who have been disaffected by Nye’s inability to advocate on their behalf in Congress. The real question is which is more racist: a joke email or the expectation that an entire race will vote in block for their white leaders?

However, last-second politics won’t be able to overcome his record.

Nye also tip-toed around J.R.’s question about whether he would vote for Speaker Pelosi again, by saying that if he is re-elected, he’ll vote for the best person to come out of his caucus. He avoided responding, and gave no indication as to who that alternative might be, which leads us to assume he will do what he did before. That’s not leadership, that’s waffling.

On the subject of taxes, Nye attempted to cast doubt on Rigell’s commitment to not raising them. Yet Nye refuses to sign any anti-tax pledge.

However, a principled leader, like Scott Rigell, goes against the grain when it matters. Leaders are willing and able to walk the walk, as well as talk to talk – as Rigell does.

Rigell has proposed a series of Congressional reforms that he will impose on himself – regardless of whether or not those reforms are adopted in Congress, and he has pledged to Hampton Roads’ taxpayers that he will not support any tax increase. On both issues, he is willing to hold himself personally accountable for his pledge.

Rigell is a businessman with a proven record of creating jobs, meeting payroll, and supporting the economy. He also answers questions directly and with personal conviction.

The choice to voters in the 2nd District couldn’t be clearer – Scott Rigell will be rewarded with a win.

Rigell 51% | Nye 45% | Golden 4%

5th District
Winner: Robert Hurt
Incumbent Democrat Rep. Tom Perriello can’t poll above 44% and hasn’t yet polled better than Hurt. In every valid poll that has come out the past month, the highest Perriello has seen is 44%, but most polls
find him barely at 40%. That’s not good news for an incumbent.

In the next two weeks, there will be five debates between Robert Hurt and Tom Perriello. Given the assertive style that comes naturally to Perriello, compared to the laid-back style of Hurt, it’s difficult to
see how Perriello comes across as anything but overtly aggressive, which will be a turn-off to voters.

But don’t count Perriello out. This race is going to get closer, nastier, and may be a repeat of 2008.

The Hurt campaign needs to work its tail off the next 13 days to overcome Perriello’s $1.3 million that will be sunk into the district, along with special interest money, in hopes of returning MoveOn.org’s
“progressive hero” to congress.

Hurt can’t rest on this lead. Nor do we expect him to. But this isn’t 2008 either. Barack Obama and Mark Warner aren’t on the ticket with Perriello – a man who is proud of his 100% liberal record of
voting for cap-and-trade, healthcare, and Wall Street bailouts.

Hurt has obviously attempted to nationalize the race by discussing these issues which, according to polling, is what many of the 5th’s voters are most concerned with. Perriello has tried—in addition to defending those votes when cornered–to fall back on the traditional line for incumbents: bringing home the bacon and local issues (electric rate increases and uranium mining). These issues are perhaps chiseling away at Hurt’s support on the margins, but not posing a major impediment to his victory.

The big question in this race is turnout, particularly students (UVa) and African-Americans.

If Perriello can replicate, or at least approximate, 2008-level turnout, he can win. National polls show these two demographic groups being disenchanted with Democrats; whether locally they are with Tom “Progressive Hero” Perriello remains to be seen.

Hurt 52% | Perriello 46% | Clark 2%

9th District
Winner: Rick Boucher
This is a district the GOP should win. But Boucher has done a lot of people a lot of favors over 28 years.

How someone who voted for job-killing, anti-coal legislation is still polling better than House of Delegates Republican leader Morgan Griffith is perplexing. But Boucher is.

However, this race is still going to be close. This is our nail-biter of the campaign season and may take weeks to find out the final outcome.

Southwestern Virginia isn’t a place you live; it’s a place you’re from. This has been a centerpiece of incumbent Rick Boucher’s campaign and, so far, it has worked: many 9th District voters are convinced that Rick Boucher is from southwestern Virginia and Morgan Griffith is an outsider.

In truth, the district boundary is Griffith’s property line—only a few feet from his house—and Virginians who live east of Roanoke might be surprised to learn that Salem is not in southwestern Virginia. Boucher claims those feet separating Griffith’s house from the district’s boundary separates Griffith from the rich cultural heritage and worldview shared by residents of the 9th District; Griffith counters by arguing that after more than two decades in Washington, Boucher has lost touch with that very mindset, as evidenced by his support for the radically liberal Obama-Pelosi agenda and his authorship of the devastating Cap-and-Trade legislation.

Griffith has taken this message on the road since winning the Republican nomination, and has literally logged thousands of miles in his car, traveling the district to attend small-town festivals and even cattle auctions in an effort to introduce himself and his limited-government message to voters far
removed from his Salem-based House of Delegates district.

Griffith, in conjunction with the NRCC and Americans for Job Security, has been blitzing the
airwaves for months with the simple message that a vote to reelect Rick Boucher is a vote for the Obama agenda. Voters seem to be responding positively to Griffith: SurveyUSA is showing Griffith closer to Boucher than any challenger has been in recent memory (several partisan polls have shown a dead-heat or even a slim Griffith lead) and Boucher is clearly feeling the heat as he has abandoned the generic ads he airs every two years and produced a bevy of new ads attacking Griffith and reaffirming his commitment to job creation in the 9th District.

In the campaign’s closing fortnight, Griffith’s task is three-fold: minimize crossover Republican votes, ease voters’ concerns that he is an outsider who doesn’t “get” the district and its residents, and blunt Boucher’s defense that he has attracted thousands of jobs to the district.

With the 9th’s unique combination of old-school Democrats, union miners and university faculty and staff, despite the district’s conservative bent in national and statewide elections, Boucher still has a solid base to work from.

In a Republican year, amplified by voter anger over all things Washington, this hurdle will be lower than usual – and it’s a hurdle Morgan Griffith can jump, but may not be able to overcome.

Boucher 50.1% | Griffith 49.8%

11th District
Winner: Keith Fimian
As the race in the 11th comes down to the wire, the biggest issue is going to be getting out the vote. This is a district that went 54% – 43% for Connolly and 57% – 42% for Obama in 2008. Yet just a year later, Fairfax and Prince William both went for McDonnell, 51 – 49 and 58 – 41 respectively. Given the state of the current political environment, the legions of motivated Republican and Tea Party activists in this district, and a general malaise that has enveloped the Democratic party in Fairfax, the momentum in this race definitely favors Keith Fimian.

Connolly has high name recognition but his negatives are also high as well – no amount of running biographical ads or puff pieces are going to move his reelect numbers higher, and according to internal polling we’ve seen, they never rise higher than 47%. Connolly’s base of support is in Fairfax, the larger of the two jurisdictions in the 11th, but he’s been trying to spend more time in Prince William to raise his ID and profile there. It’s not going to work, primarily because Prince William is far more conservative ideologically than Fairfax and the folks in Prince William aren’t buying Connolly’s chameleon like portrayal of himself as some kind of a fiscal conservative.

Connolly’s fundraising has also dried up. As noted on Bearing Drift, Connolly raised around $400k during the 3rd quarter, while Keith Fimian raised two and a half times as much – over $1 million – for the same time period. Connolly’s bankrollers can see the handwriting on the wall and they aren’t going to throw good money after bad. Connolly has been up on TV across the district for about two weeks now, including multiple buys with an ineffective attack ad on both network TV and cable. He’s blowing through his money faster than he can raise it. In terms of money, the two candidates are neck and neck in total fundraising, with Connolly outraising Fimian overall by a mere $2500 – and Fimian has the backing of at least one major 527 group with a million dollar ad buy up – Connolly doesn’t. And with labor stretched thin defending so many more important Democrats to their interests, it’s unlikely he’ll see a large influx of union money in the next two weeks. The AFL-CIO has done direct mail into a number of districts, but in this environment, direct mail isn’t going to cut it.

Past strategies for winning the 11th have focused on running up the vote totals in Fairfax while ensuring a solid turnout on Prince William. But that strategy has backfired, most recently in the Republican primary, where Keith Fimian won by holding Fairfax even and running up the numbers in Prince William. Herrity actually beat Fimian in Fairfax 51 to 49, but Fimian destroyed Herrity in Prince William 75% to 25% and that was where the margin for victory came from. Fimian can win this race the same way – keeping close with Connolly in Fairfax County and then running up the vote totals with a solid GOTV effort in Prince William.

Fimian has the organization and momentum in his favor. He’s capable of running a campaign in every area of the 11th, not simply Fairfax, and that’s why he’s going to pull off a major upset on November 2 and send Gerry back to SAIC.

Fimian 52% | Connolly 47%

8th District
Winner: Jim Moran
Although the political climate is anti-incumbent, this is exactly opposite in Virginia’s 8th District (Alexandria, Arlington, and portions of Fairfax) where Jim Moran is anticipated to head into his 11th term as Congressman.

While not free of political scandals, Moran remains popular in this liberal-leaning district. Moran has been tied to the PMA Group scandal, which dogged the late Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), and has been less than friendly to voters (see the example).

Murray has put in a good challenge: He has raised over $300,000 and has qualified for the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. But in a district that has grown government-dependent, it does not look feasible that he has even the opportunity to win .

Until this district is redrawn, if ever, it will remain a Democratic haven, sucking down tax-dollars at the expense of the rest of the Commonwealth and nation.

Moran 64% | Murray 35%

1st District
Winner: Rob Wittman
As Senator John McCain was losing the nation and the Commonwealth in his campaign for president by 53-46 margins, he still carried this district with 51% of the vote in 2008. Wittman, who was running for his first full-term that year, did more than five points better. Wittman even beat out McCain in raw votes by more than 10,000.

It is possible that Krystal Ball’s recent publicity will stiffen turnout for the Democrats, but it won’t be near the 2008 Obama surge.

More to the point, Republican turnout is sure to be much higher than in 2008. Wittman began his career in Congress dealing with some headaches from the right, but those largely disappeared when he refused to back TARP.

This won’t be close.

Wittman 67% | Ball 30% | Parker (IG) 3%

3rd District
Winner: Bobby Scott
Despite the Republican wave and anti-incumbent fever, the deck has been stacked against a Republican nominee from the outset in this district. Bobby Scott did virtually no campaigning until September and will easily win the district over Republican Chuck Smith.

There have been few, if any, signs of a campaign even taking place in Norfolk, Portsmouth and Newport News, this despite Republicans putting up their first nominee since 2004 and the candidate being from Hampton Roads.

The GOP campaign has been plagued with infighting, turf wars and pointless chest-puffery.

Three campaign managers later, Chuck Smith’s campaign has packed-up and left behind their Newport News headquarters and concentrated their campaign efforts in the Richmond area, where it appears the Republican Party of Virginia is, for all points and purposes, running the race. Combine that dysfunction with endorsements by former 3rd District Republican nominee candidate Coby Dillard for Libertarian James Quigley, little fundraising success for either Quigley or Smith, and little inroads into the African-American community, Bobby Scott will handily win another term in Congress.

The only question at this point is if the 34% of Winsome Sears in 2004 is attainable for Smith.

Scott 59% | Smith 29% | Quigley 10%

4th District
Winner: Randy Forbes
Andrea Miller, as regional coordinator for MoveOn.org and the Democratic candidate in 2008, managed to garner just over 40% against Republican Randy Forbes when there was a strong anti-GOP incumbent mood and Obama and Warner were at the top of the ticket

This is not 2008. And Forbes has done nothing the past two years to warrant a change. His solid conservatism, support for the military, fiscal discipline, leadership in international affairs, and innovative approaches to energy, are just some of the reasons he continues to be a valuable voice for Virginians in Congress.

LeGrow, who, in the district that formerly hosted the headquarters of the Christian Coalition, is a self-proclaimed atheist, is LeGone.

Republicans are also extremely motivated to vote, if just for the protest. Our only question is whether it will be a 30 or 40 point win.

Forbes 68% | Legrow 32%

6th District
Winner: Bob Goodlatte
In a year that could produce historic losses for congressional Democrats, the 6th District Democratic Committee could not even field a challenger to nine-term incumbent Republican Bob Goodlatte.

Goodlatte is not without opposition as he faces two challengers: Libertarian Stuart Bain and independent/New Whig Party-endorsed Jeff Vanke.

Some Democrats may gravitate toward Vanke, who supports capping the profits of insurance companies and extending amnesty to illegal aliens, but no independent polling of this race has been released to show how much of the Democratic vote he might expect to receive.

Even without the support of the Roanoke Tea Party, Goodlatte, who is generally popular and widely regarded in the district as a fiscal conservative, a faithful and competant representative, and a reliable vote against the Obama-Pelosi agenda, can expect to be reelected comfortably–possibly garnering as much as 90 percent of the vote.

Goodlatte 85% | Bain 5% | Vanke 10%

10th District
Winner: Frank Wolf
In 2008, 30 year incumbent Frank Wolf outpolled Barrack Obama by just shy of 6 percentage points. Not only did he survive the Democratic tsunami that swept Capitol Hill, Wolf thrived.

Known for his prompt, dedicated constituent service, Wolf has also been able to run on his accomplishments. He’s frequently used his influence on the House appropriations committee to bring substantial federal tax monies back to the tenth district. Wolf is also respected for his international advocacy for religious freedom and human rights. And, for all the advantages of incumbency, Wolf still hasn’t stopped reaching out to new voters and building relationships with the next generation of Republican leaders.

Despite some tea party members and conservative leaders disappointment with certain of Wolf’s fiscal votes – for TARP and the prescription drug benefit plan, among other things – Wolf did not have a Republican nomination challenger this year. In addition, Wolf has actively courted the Tea Party and was warmly received at their luncheonearlier this month.

Wolf’s Democratic opponent, Jeff Barnett, has struggled to raise funds and does not have the resources to get his message out to the district. Barnett also struggles to earn media attention, as Wolf has limited their opportunities for joint exposure to the last few weeks of the election.

While some members of the minority have simply the first voted “no” through the first two years of the Obama presidency, informed voters in the 10th District have no trouble identifying ideas Wolf has brought to the table. He has championed a bi-partisan Commission on deficit reduction and taken Attorney General Holder to task refusing to prosecute Black Panthers for voter intimidation. And, he’s been involved in helping create or retain federal jobs and improve the transportation networks across his district.

Voters in the 10th District know Frank Wolf – and they like him.

Wolf 61% | Barnett 35% | Redpath 4%

7th District
Winner: Eric Cantor
Why will he win? Because he always does.

Whine though they might, neither Democrat Rick Waugh nor Independent Floyd Bayne have presented themselves as credible alternatives to Cantor. The 7th District is arguably the most Republican District in Virginia.

In 2000 Cantor squeezed past Conservative State Senator Steve Martin by a margin of 264 votes in the Republican primary to replace retiring Tom Bliley. Since that time, Cantor has never received less than 62% of the vote.

While criticized for his vote on TARP, No Child Left Behind, and other big government programs, Cantor preaches conservatism and fiscal responsibility and says this time Republicans will mean it.

As the Minority Whip, he’s the second most powerful Republican Congressman. When the GOP takes back the House in November, Cantor is expected to be the new Majority Leader if he doesn’t make a play for the Speaker’s Chair.

Cantor 69% | Waugh 22% | Bayne 9%

Orginially posted on Bearing Drift.

“I find it interesting that Scott claims he’s against any tax increase, as he pledged to the Hampton Roads Tea Party, yet he gave $10,000 in support of the 2002 Tax Referendum which would have raised taxes on transportation in Hampton Roads.”

Fair question. So, I asked both the Rigell campaign and Karen Hurd, head of the Hampton Roads Tea Party, for their thoughts on the subject.

Hurd said:

“Rigell did indeed give $10,000 to raise the sales tax in the YES Campaign in 2002. Now, 8 years later, he is on record with the Pledge to the People of the Second District to not raise taxes. Given the American public’s abhorrence of increased taxes, and Rigell’s repeated statements that he is opposed to tax increases across the board, the Hampton Roads Tea Party fully expects him to follow through on his pledge. If for some reason he fails to uphold his pledge, we will hold him accountable.”

As the Hampton Roads Tea Party should.

I must say, though, that her comment almost sounds like an endorsement. Nowhere in the statement does it offer a caveat of “if Rigell is elected”, or something of that effect. It almost reads to me like it’s a forgone conclusion that Rigell is going to be the Congressman representing the 2nd Distirct, but I digress.

The bottom-line for the Tea Party is that they have one candidate who has pledged not to raise taxes. That candidate is not Glenn Nye.

Of course, the Rigell camp will parse the donation a little. They say that it was Rigell’s company, not Rigell himself who gave the money to the campaign.

Jason Miyares, campaign manager, was a bit more emphatic (his bold, not mine):

It should be pointed out that Scott Rigell never personally donated to the YES Campaign, but one of his dealerships, of which he was not the sole owner at the time, did donate.

The bottom line is that Scott Rigell is the only candidate in this race who has signed a pledge never to raise taxes. He signed the Americans for Tax Reform “Taxpayer Protection Pledge” and the no new taxes pledge was included in his Pledge to the People of the Second District. There is one candidate in this race who has voted for a $9.7 Billion tax increase on American businesses during a recession; that candidate is Democrat Glenn Nye. Raising taxes on American businesses is not the key to our economic recovery, and Glenn Nye’s re-election means he will once again vote to make Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House. Under her leadership we have seen over $3 trillion added to the national debt in less than 18 months, massive increases on taxes and regulation on our small business entrepreneurs, and a government take-over of our health care system. It is clear that the American people cannot afford another two years of a Pelosi/Nye Congress.

So, now that we see the response from the Tea Party and the Rigell campaign, I pose this question to Congressman Nye:

I share and appreciate your concern for possible tax increases, and appreciate your coming out in favor to extend the Bush Tax Cuts; but, in your asking me this question yesterday, does this mean you’re prepared to also sign the Americans for Tax Reform “Taxpayer Protection Pledge” or the Hampton Roads Tea Party pledge? After all, if you’re committed to not raising taxes, signing the pledge should be rather easy.

-Or-

Are you saying that raising taxes is inevitable, no matter who is elected? In your opinion, do you see it as highly likely that taxes will have to be raised during the next congress, meaning you’re predisposed to doing so?

Methinks the Congressman doth protest too much – and it is a bit revealing.

Orginally posted at BearingDrift.com by J.R. Hoeft

One thing’s for sure — Hurt was uncomfortable with the tone and pace, and Perriello was nothing short of aggressive and direct.  For most of the debate, Perriello commanded, but was not poised or assertive — just plain ol’ aggressive.

Congressman Perriello let down seniors dreadfully over the past two years when he voted to gut Medicare by nearly a half-trillion dollars in favor of the budget-busting ObamaCare. He even unabashedly proclaimed that he disagreed with the dean of Virginia’s Democratic delegation in Congress, 9th District Congressman Rick Boucher, who said that healthcare went too far against seniors, which is why Boucher voted against it. But even more so than that, Perriello has no problems looking 5th District voters in the face and saying, “You’re wrong, I’m right. I know better than you.” In over 22 town halls, the people resoundingly begged Perriello not to vote for ObamaCare, yet he still did. If there is any more indication that a representative doesn’t represent his district, we’d like to hear about it.

Regarding the rest of the debate, Perriello time and again tried to paint himself as someone who would break with his party and was somehow an independent. However, the record clearly shows otherwise. 93% of the time, Perriello votes with the Democratic leadership. And, on the issues that truly matter to voters in the 5th, such as health care, a comprehensive energy policy, and creating jobs, Perriello voted with Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, sending the country careening towards a $13.5 trillion national debt and a nearly double-digit national unemployment rate – nearly 15% in the 5th District alone.

In just two years, Perriello has voted for the initiatives that have raised the debt faster than at any other time in our nation’s history. Whereas for the past 10 years in the Virginia legislature, Robert Hurt, in a cool and calm manner (just like in this debate), has fought for 5th District voters and balanced budgets time and time again, so much so that state revenues are now growing at over a 4% rate.

Instead of just playing lip service to independence, Hurt has demonstrated that he can make the tough choices, and will take a measured and comprehensive approach to cutting spending and representing the true values of 5th District voters.

All in all, the scorecard of the debate is a tie.  But if one understands that you never win a debate, but only look not to lose one, then Perriello came out a bit bruised by his own aggressive style — one that flew in the face of the calm, moderating independent he has so assiduously maintained over the last few months.

Shaun Kenney and J.R. Hoeft wrote this post at BearingDrift.com