Few people are willing to deal with reality. Liberalism is built on a base of “let’s pretend” and in far too many cases conservatives have gone along part way to preserve their relevance in the eyes of popular culture.

Just as facts are stubborn things, reality doesn’t negotiate or alter itself to suit modern sensibilities. Reality is what it is and yes often it bites. Until conservatives are willing to acknowledge and accept reality they will continue to fight a losing war with feel good liberalism.  Temporary victories such as Ronald Reagan’s presidency and election success in 1994 and 2010, glow for a short time and then are consumed by humanities mad rush toward chaos and ruin.

Conservatives can’t win by playing according to liberalism’s rules. Ronald Reagan won in 1980 because he was willing to directly challenge many of the hallowed precepts of the liberal ruling class. Every time a conservative speaks the truth and then apologizes or temporizes in the face of a manufactured outcry from the left, its another victory for liberalism and another step toward Babylon.

We, as a culture and society, have allowed the left to so muddle the national dialogue and consciousness that having a baby out of wedlock is fine but saying you disapprove is heartless. Having an abortion is fine but saying you disapprove is extreme. Committing murder and being sentenced to death will win you a dedicated following that fights for your “rights” but slipping up and uttering the wrong word at the wrong time can destroy your career and hold you up to national ridicule and mockery.

It is sick that being a “conservative” means every slip of the tongue is publicized far and wide to prove your stupidity, cupidity, or “extremism” , but it is tragic that “conservatives” aid and abet this state of things by cravenly buying into the snake oil sold by the death merchants of the left.

Conservatism has no standing to denounce the beam in liberalism’s eye until it is willing to confront its own complicity in the degradation of our national discourse, legal system, education system, and societal norms.

The experts have been changing their tune in recent days as Mitt Romney has continued to spin his wheels and Rick Santorum has moved out to a lead in national polling. What was derisively dismissed as mere fantasy just days ago is now starting to be discussed quite seriously. Unless something major happens in this campaign and very soon, it becomes increasingly likely that no candidate will reach the 50% threshold or come close enough to persuasively claim a morally exigent plurality.

Those same experts are now wringing their hands and predicting the sky will fall if in fact the convention is forced to hold multiple ballots among the remaining four or perhaps even turn to a “new” candidate. “Impossible” they wail, as they see their influence waning and the Great Unwashed refusing to follow their masters.

I view the prospect of a convention that is not a mere rubber stamp, as a healthy and even exciting event. To have a major party nominee decided by several thousand people who were chosen to do that very thing will be a demonstration of the strength and grandeur of our representative republic.

I feel very comfortable with the GOP nominee being chosen by party activists gathered for that purpose and nothing that happens over four days in Tampa is likely to be as painful as this interminable morass of a campaign has been month after dreary month.

Let the fun begin.

It hit me this evening in a blinding moment of cold medicine induced clarity.  Mitt Romney is a hopeless dork.

Newt Gingrich is famous for talking too much but no one, and I mean no one, can so firmly wedge their foot in their oral cavity in as few words as Mitt the Dork. How is it possible that Mr. Electable has said not one, not two, but all THREE of the following things this campaign and its just February 2!

A. “I like being able to fire people.”

B. “I get speakers fees from time to time, but not very much.” (Referring to being paid $374,000 in ONE year in speaking fees, or roughly seven (7) times the median HOUSEHOLD income)

C. “I’m not concerned about the very poor”

What kind of dimwitted dolt could utter those words while running for president ?

Those quotes would be unfathomably stupid if he was running unopposed for the Soil & Water Conservation Board of Navel Fuzz County.

If Mitt the Dork wins this nomination, John Kerry will have serious competition for most out-of-touch boob to run for president on a major party ticket.

The past couple of days have seen the GOP Establishment begin to defend their turf at all costs. Contrary to popular beliefs, it is not pro-lifers, evangelicals, the religious right, the Tea Party, or guys named Bubba, who sabotage the Republican Party when they don’t get their way. No, only the Establishment does that and they have honed their technique over the years to the point where they can engage the apparatus with little fanfare.

The first time I observed this up close was in the 1994 Virginia Senate race. LBJ son-in-law Charles Robb was a battered and bruised incumbent due to his penchant for dalliance with women not his wife, and the fact that he was also wooden in many other ways including between the ears. Oliver North had gained celebrity from his testimony before Congress regarding Iran-Contra and he was considered the front-runner for the nomination to oppose Robb.

This sent the establishment into a tizzy. Virginia Republican Senator John “Jawn” Warner, perhaps the biggest bag of wind this state ever sent to Washington, was especially offended by the idea of having North as a fellow member of the world’s most exclusive club. A former Budget Director under President Reagan, a political bumbler named James Miller, was recruited to oppose North and all the “good” people quickly lined up behind him. Miller however was no match for North’s star-power and was easily defeated at the convention in Richmond.

This did not sit well with Senator Jawn and so he and his fellow travelers then recruited a two-time loser for governor and mushy moderate J. Marshall Coleman to run a third party campaign. At the same time a media campaign began that was meant to discredit North. Secretary of State, for a drink of water, Lawrence Eagleburger was the messenger used to poo-poo North’s record and dismiss him as a mere underling.  I well remember one interview where Eagleburger pompously declared (paraphrasing) “Oliver North sat back against the wall while senior officials discussed policy and made decisions” .

It was understood that Coleman had no hope of winning and thus his sole purpose was to siphon off enough right of center voters to re-elect Robb.  It worked. That November Robb won with 44% against North’s 42%. Coleman drew 11% and thus Charles Robb had another six years in the exclusive Senate play-pen, thanks to sitting Republican Senator (and Elizabeth Taylor’s 7th husband) John Warner.

We see this process beginning anew in the current presidential race. Mitt Romney started the narrative with the reference to Ronald Reagan’s diary entry on Newt. Then yesterday Elliott Abrams (who was ironically a colleague of Oliver North during Iran-Contra) had a smear piece in National Review Online that furthered the “Newt was a mean doofus” storyline.

Minor actors such as Eagleburger and Abrams fill these roles in service to the Establishment for very obvious reasons. Peer pressure.  Invites to the A List cocktail parties, and future appointments to sub-cabinet positions or perhaps a minor diplomatic post, hang in the balance.  No one wants to be the guy or gal whose name is crossed out because you didn’t toe the Establishment line.

In 2012 the Establishment wants Mitt Romney and only Mitt Romney. The reasons are several and how many you credit probably depends on how organized you think these people are.

#1. The Establishment acts first and foremost to protect its prerogative. It is willing to lose in the general election to maintain control of the party.

#2. The Establishment doesn’t like Newt Gingrich or trust him to be sufficiently pliable in office so he must be stopped.

#3. The Establishment doesn’t believe Gingrich can beat Obama and they fear he will also take down the GOP House majority and a likely Senate GOP majority.

#4. The Establishment doesn’t think Romney can win either but in case he does at least they will have one of their own in the White House. This uses the same template as 1996 and 2008.

#5. The Establishment is willing to lose to Obama with Romney because he won’t threaten the Congressional majorities.

#6. The Establishment doesn’t feel the financial pain the average American does during a lousy economy. Very wealthy, they can comfortably survive four more years of Obama especially with a GOP Congress to limit the damage.

#7. If Obama is re-elected this year, it sets up a golden opportunity for the Republican Party in 2016. Running as the opposition nominee after the “in” party has served eight years is a plum spot. It takes a really poor candidate like Michael Dukakis to blunder away a sweet set-up like that.

#8. Every effort will be made to smooth the way for a very well connected candidate in 2016.

#9. Jeb Bush.

The Republican Party Establishment would rather lose to Barack Obama than lose to Newt Gingrich.

Currently it’s common to hear sorrowful wailing because the Republican Party is forced to choose one of the candidates running for president. If only XYZ had ran, THEN we’d have something to get excited about.  This lack of interest from the Great Candidate(s) is then used as a corollary argument that Barack Obama is seen as unbeatable by the smart guys.

I submit to you that this balderdash is completely refuted by the pesky facts. Following are some of the names that are repeatedly tossed out as our great lost hope.

Chris Christie – Really? A moderate from New Jersey with two years in elective office? From Day 1 has steadfastly said “No” to running in 2012.

John Thune – Really? A guy who is in his first term in the Senate (and he had to be talked into running again after losing the first time) and is not known outside South Dakota?

Sarah Palin – Love her but no. She wisely realized it wasn’t in the cards and at just 48 she has plenty of time to wait for better opportunities.

Mitch Daniels – Its fairly well established that his wife and family were opposed to a presidential run. No mystery here.

Tim Pawlenty – Oh wait….

Bobby Jindal – Barely into his second term as Governor of a small state, will turn just 41 later this year, no way is 2012 his best time to run. Huge future potential.

Marco Rubio – In his first term in the US Senate, also will turn just 41 later this year,  no freaking way should he rush things. Huge future potential.

Haley Barbour – Oops, wrong list.

Paul Ryan – Extremely hard to run for President from the House, not well known by the average person, at just 42 has a huge future, we need him more in Congress at this point.

Unless I’m forgetting someone those are the names that get tossed around yet there are very good and obvious reasons why none of them will be the Republican nominee in 2012.

Contrary to popular folklore the GOP does not have a bench of 600 pound gorillas ready to come in, unite the party, and sweep to victory who instead cravenly decided to enter the bunker for four more years.

In fact there is only one person I am aware of who fits that description. Only one person with the organization, name ID, political experience, political ability, and the potential to draw the various factions together. And his last name simply makes him a no go for 2012.

Besides, when you consider that the Democrats had to choose between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama in 2008, I think our choices of Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum begin to take on a certain luster.

Conservatives generally have a hard time dealing with the limitations of capitalism and a free economy. There are and must be limitations for if not,  John Dillinger would have been considered an entrepreneur instead of Public Enemy #1.

As I’ve tried to understand my own antipathy for Mitt Romney I have slowly come to believe that my discomfort is due to the nagging suspicion that Romney has more in common with the robber barons of the 19th Century then he does with Dave Thomas, Steve Jobs, Herman Cain, or for that matter George Romney.

Combined with that concern is a feeling that, to paraphrase Barry Switzer, Romney was born on third base but thinks he hit a home run. Let me hasten to add that there is nothing wrong with being born on third base and in fact I wish I had been. Building assets through multiple generations is the way many wise families have become extremely wealthy.

But Romney’s whiny “I didn’t inherit my money” schtick rings about as false as anything I’ve heard this campaign season.  Inheriting money and/or position and/or access is an honorable thing but then pretending you didn’t is both dishonest and ungrateful. Even a modest inheritance or financial help from one’s parents can give a person starting out a huge leg up.

The moments when Romney seems most authentic and even approaches eloquence at times, is when he is talking about amassing his fortune and this plays into my unease and my gut feeling that he is man without a core set of beliefs that go any deeper.

The mass media continues to do a great job of studiously ignoring Barack Obama’s pervasive weakness in this year’s election. Aiding and abetting the media are establishment Republicans who with purple faces and wagging fingers assure us that only Mitt Romney is “electable”. To them I say “Hogwash”.

The fact is that President Obama is in a historically weak position. Numbers released by Gallup yesterday show that Barack Obama suffered weaker Third Year approval than all elected presidents over the past 60 years except for…….Jimmy Carter.

Additionally, Obama’s 12th Quarter approval rating of 43.3% is the worst ever for an elected president falling nearly three points below even the woeful Carter.

In Gallup’s summation they say:

President Obama’s recent job approval ratings look weak compared with those of his predecessors; his 44% third-year average ranks in the lower fourth of all years for which Gallup has data, back to the Truman administration. At the same time, Obama’s approval ratings are improving, with upward momentum in his most recent quarterly average and with hi s daily average now sitting at 45%, closer to the 50% level that would make him a strong bet for re-election.

Notice how Gallup digs around to find something positive to say about Obama’s awful numbers. Clearly 45% IS closer to 50% than 44% is, but 45% approval is a terrible mess for any incumbent to face.

Want further evidence of how weak Obama is? In the current RCP average in a match up against Ron Paul, Obama leads by just 5% and is stuck well below 50%. An incumbent President who isn’t double-digits ahead of an odd-ball like Ron Paul is in deep deep trouble.

This election remains ours to win.

Fresh off a third place finish in South Carolina will Rick Santorum march on or hang it up? That of course is the next big question.

I suspect he will stay in at least through Florida and here’s why: He essentially has no incentive to get out at this point. With the Newt Gingrich lead demolition of Mitt “Glass Jaw” Romney in South Carolina, it is clear that the race is beginning to both jell and accelerate. When Rick Perry stepped aside it seems to have lit a fuse that has forced voters to get serious.

As a result Ron Paul is beginning to fade and should have a diminishing effect from this point forward. In South Carolina Gingrich and Santorum got roughly 58% of the vote which is a landslide for conservatives and I now believe that barring some sort of cataclysmic event the 2012 GOP nominee will be one of those two men.

Over the next 7-10 days look for voters to start moving decisively for Gingrich and to a lesser extent Santorum. Romney will likely hang on to his establishment/moderate support which is around 20%.  If Newt can win Florida, especially if he wins by a margin close to South Carolina,  then Rick Santorum will probably have to give it up. However if Gingrich were to blow a gasket and crash to earth, then I would expect to see Santorum reap the benefit as the last Non-Romney standing.

I don’t believe Mitt Romney can win. He has never really been the front-runner. He’s just been the nominee the party establishment supported so in a fractured field he seemed more important than he really ever was.  His record is wrong, he has no core that anyone has ever seen, and he is a stiff and plastic candidate who utterly lacks the ability to connect with average people.

A final thought is this: If the party establishment concludes that Romney cannot win, will he be pressured to stand aside as the old guard searches for a “new” candidate? The month of February looms ahead and it should be interesting.

I started this post several days ago with the portentious title “Political Correctness is Destroying this Nation”. In the press of life and chronic lassitude I didn’t decide to finish it until today when I read an excellent piece on National Review Online by the indispensable Thomas Sowell. The Way That History Went Down explains it much more eloquently than I can so I’ll just add a couple of comments to his.

Sowell’s complete article is a must read but he really lays it out in his summation:

Focusing attention and attacks on people who have greater wealth-generating capacity — whether races, classes, or whatever — has had counterproductive consequences, including tragedies written in the blood of millions. Whole totalitarian governments have risen to dictatorial power on the wings of envy and resentment ideologies.

Intellectuals have all too often promoted these envy and resentment ideologies. There are both psychic and material rewards for the intelligentsia in doing so, even when the supposed beneficiaries of these ideologies end up worse off. When you want to help people, you tell them the truth. When you want to help yourself, you tell them what they want to hear. 

Both politicians and intellectuals have made their choice.

Boiled down to just bones and gristle, the difference between “conservative” and “liberal”, as those terms are now understood in 2012 America, is that conservatives primarily deal in reality while liberals primarily deal in utopian “let’s pretend” dreams. Yet even among conservatives there are stark differences between what is considered fittin’ for public discourse. For instance a certain type of blue-blood Republican always breaks out in a case of the vapors whenever one of the great unwashed brings up an embarrassing subject such as abortion or global warning.

As the Bible make plain in the words I used for a new title, only truth will make us free. To the extent we embrace falsehoods and pay homage to ideas that are based not on truth but on fantasy, we are enslaving ourselves  in a web of deceit and confusion.

With a hat tip to 1908:

The time has come, the fight is on
We’ve picked the man to run
For President, Georgia sent
Her noble worthy son
The man we need, the man to lead
Our strong and mighty craft
Through storm and sea!
to victory!
It’s former Speaker Newt!!
Ah!

Get on the raft with Newt, boys
Get on the winning boat
The man worthwhile with the friendly smile
Will get the honest vote
He’ll save the country sure, boys
From Obama, Reid, and graft
So all join in, we’re sure to win
Get on the raft with Newt!

Of Obama’s bluff we’ve had enough
He’ll talk you deaf and blind
The million jobs he’s going to make
Are only in his mind
Seems he’s talked since before time
And no results to show
If his tongue were gone
He’d keep right on
A-yapping just the same
Oh…

Get on the raft with Newt, girls
Get on the winning boat
The man worthwhile with the friendly smile
He’ll get the honest vote
He’ll save the country sure, girls
From Obama, Reid, and graft
So all join in, we’re sure to win
Get on the raft!
Get on the raft!
Get on the raft with Newt!