Having studied Sarah Palin now for just shy of 4 years, I have noticed a recurring trend that is now playing a big role in her 2012 campaign/non-campaign.  The trend is that she has this awful habit, dangerous in politicians, of meaning what she says and saying what she means.  This habit, coupled with the media’s (and other pundits’) insistence on looking for the “hidden meaning” in every politician’s utterings is a bad combination.

Now the media does this with all politicians.  I’m not sure if it’s worse with Sarah or if it’s just the combination that’s deadly.  But this definitely seems to get her in a lot of trouble and allow the media to paint a distorted image of her.

On the other hand, this unusual approach to politics is why so many of us like her.  It is why so many of us like Chris Christie as well (unless he runs for President in 2012, but more on that later).  This trait is what voters say they want most in a politician (though many secretly despise).

Before I get to the 2012 situation, I will present just a few (of many) examples of how Palin gets herself in trouble this way.

Katie Couric and the Newspapers

Here, Katie asks Sarah what newspapers and magazines she read before being tapped as McCain’s veep. Now, Sarah’s answer was a non-answer, which got her into much trouble. But there’s more to it than that. The “correct” answer for a politician to give to the MSM would include the New York Times, Washington Post, Newsweek, Time, New Yorker, etc. I have no doubt that Palin never read any of those regularly. If she had answered National Review, Wall Street Journal, Human Events, American Spectator, etc., she would have been branded a right-wing kook. If she had answered Better Homes and Gardens, Runners World, Guns and Ammo, etc., she would have been branded non-serious. I suspect the truth for Sarah is that she reads from a variety of publications, many through links on the Drudge Report or RCP (which is what I basically do). So her answer was probably the most correct one, and she was not willing to spout the list of liberal rags if it wasn’t what she meant. But she definitely has paid the price for her answer.

Pals Around With Terrorists

In this now infamous campaign rhetoric, Palin discusses Barack Obama’s longstanding ties to Weather Underground bomber William Ayers. The media coverage of this focused on what they thought she was trying to accomplish by bringing this up. According to them, she was fomenting violence and hate towards Obama, bringing up irrelevant associations from his “distant” past, or even trying to stir up racial bigotry. They refused to take her at face value that a long-time association with someone who hates America enough to commit acts of terror is a troubling thing worth investigating. They refused to see this as a sign that Obama did not believe in American Exceptionalism. (They knew this, of course, so this was more of a deliberate misinterpretation.)

Resignation as Governor

From the moment she began her announcement, there was endless speculation as to “why” she was resigning. We’ve heard that she did it to make money, that she couldn’t stand the heat, that she did it to save her family from the legal bills, etc., etc., ad nauseum. If you didn’t watch the video, here’s the key part of the statement:

With this announcement that I am not seeking re-election… I’ve determined it’s best to transfer the authority of governor to Lieutenant Governor Parnell; and I am willing to do so, so that this administration – with its positive agenda, its accomplishments, and its successful road to an incredible future – can continue without interruption and with great administrative and legislative success.

My choice is to take a stand and effect change – not hit our heads against the wall and watch valuable state time and money, millions of your dollars, go down the drain in this new environment. Rather, we know we can effect positive change outside government at this moment in time, on another scale, and actually make a difference for our priorities – and so we will, for Alaskans and for Americans.

Reading these words in retrospect one realizes that not only did she mean exactly what she said, but that what she hoped to accomplish by resigning has indeed happened.

In the Crosshairs

Here, Palin said exactly what she meant. Her Facebook post accompanying this map said:

We’re going to reclaim the power of the people from those who disregarded the will of the people. We’re going to fire them and send them back to the private sector, which has been shrinking thanks to their destructive government-growing policies. Maybe when they join the millions of unemployed, they’ll understand why Americans wanted them to focus on job creation and an invigorated private sector.

And as we all know, when some kook who had no apparent interest in or connection to Sarah Palin took a shot at a well-liked Arizona congresswoman, the media and left (redundant) was all too happy to imply that Palin meant something other than what she said. By the time the truth came out, the damage was done. Ironically, Gabby Giffords survived the attack and is recovering remarkably well, while Palin’s national electoral prospects may have taken a fatal blow. Neither deserved what they got.

The End

(Okay, if you skipped to this section looking for the promised “inside scoop”, go back and read the rest of the diary first!)

The Real End, or 2012

For well over a year now, Sarah Palin has stated time and time again that yes, she is indeed considering a run for the presidency in 2012. She has never wavered from this position, nor given any indication which way she will choose. And when asked when she would make an announcement of her decision, she has only given one timetable. By the end of September.

So why is she now accused of being a “political tease”? Why did Drudge feature a headline “The Tease” with a photo of her bus? Why did Erick Erickson say “I give up, and I’m tired of being teased.”?

The answer is simple. Once again, folks just cannot accept that she means what she said. She said the end of September. But surely, like most other politicians, she’ll give us a hint ahead of time! Surely some “aide” will let the truth slip, either planned or unplanned. Surely she won’t actually make us wait that long!

She said end of September. She meant end of September. (And stop calling me Shirley!)

I find it somewhat ironic and amusing that so many on the right (Erick included, apparently) are giving up on a woman who has been openly and consistently considering a run because she won’t tell us her answer weeks early. Yet these same folks are happy to jump on the bandwagon of a guy who lied about not running, then magically changed his mind and “explored” a run for a month before jumping in. (Frankly, this is what many politicians do, so I won’t use that against Perry in my decision. But I’m still struck by the irony of this.) And many will support Chris Christie if he changes his mind, despite the fact that he has said he would have to “commit suicide” to convince people he isn’t going to run.

On a side note, a solid argument can be made that the end of September is too late. I’ll leave that discussion for a different venue.

[This diary was inspired by comments from smith61 and rsklaroff on Erick’s South Carolina and the Campaign Trail diary.

Well, if there were any worry about lingering emails that somehow the thousands of Palin-haters missed on that first day, Jon Stewart has put that worry to rest. With this clip from his show, I suspect that the Palin email story is dead and buried. As they say, the narrative is set…

I posted the message below as a note on my Facebook page.  I would encourage any of you who are Palin fans, or even those who aren’t Palin fans but agree with the content, to spread this message around through whatever media you use.  You may use my verbiage, or better yet, write a similar message in your own words. We can do our part to help change (hopefully) the public perception of Palin as polarizing and extremist.  While this is clearly a pro-Palin exercise, I do believe a more positive public perception of Palin is also in the best interest of the Conservative movement. It may turn out to be a futile exercise, but I feel strongly enough about this to give it a try.

Again, if you don’t like Palin, please move on to the next diary.  I’m not looking to start a fight here.  I view RedState as a discussion site, a political action site, and an advocacy site. This falls into the latter two categories. I do, however, welcome any constructive comments or suggestions. Thanks for your interest.

This is a serious message especially for any of my friends who had decided that you do not like Sarah Palin. Now that the Palin email witch hunt has happened, we know with certainty that Palin was a hard-working, knowledgeable, and engaged governor, a public servant who was more committed to working for the good of the citizens of Alaska than in playing partisan politics. We now have had demonstrated beyond the shadow of a doubt that the media and the Democrat party have spent 3 years on a mission to destroy this good woman with lies, innuendo, and ridicule. Not only have they failed (she is still standing and still smiling and working for America), but they have been exposed as frauds and liars.

All I ask is that you see the truth in my first paragraph, and take a second look at Sarah Palin…the REAL Sarah Palin. Not the caricature the media has created, not the vindictive characterization created by Tina Fey. The real Sarah. Maybe see the new documentary about her rise in Alaska that is due in theaters starting this week. Maybe read one of her two books. At the very least, read the email ‘Trig birth announcement’ that I shared in a post a few minutes ago. All I ask is that you take another look at her with an open mind. You may disagree with her politics, and that’s ok. I don’t expect everyone to agree with her, or me. But what I cannot stand is for people to be judged unfairly on a deliberately inaccurate characterization.

She may or may not run for president in 2012. Most observers think she won’t. I think it’s a 50-50 proposition. But whether or not she ever runs for public office again, I believe she has much to offer in contributing to the national debate over the direction and future of our nation. I sincerely hope that you, and many other Americans, will make your own judgment of Sarah Palin, based on the truth and not what her enemies would have you think about her.

Thanks, and God bless America!

“A vicious decision is driving me mad.” -Kevin Cronin

OK.  First thing: I am fully aware that I am not a big enough player on RedState for any announcement of mine to seem major. But I have been one of the more consistent Sarah Palin supporters over the last couple years, and even earned a reputation among some here (especially her detractors) as one of the more rational of these supporters. So at least in my book, it would be major if I announced to support someone else!

Should I Follow My Head

I have heard all the unelectability arguments regarding Sarah Palin. I have argued against some of those here. But I cannot deny the fact that her Approval/Disapproval ratings are seriously in the tank (like the -30′s range!). My head tells me that, though she has the ability to change this, she doesn’t have time before November 2012. She has been just too caricatured by the media and the liberals, and many folks have just made up their mind about her. Her resignation as governor, though I am glad she did it and the conservative movement is the better for it, does harm her politically in a way that will be difficult to overcome in the short term.

So what should my engineering head do with this information? There isn’t really (yet) an obvious alternative for me. Romney/Gingrich/Santorum/P*ul/Johnson/Huntsman are just, well, out for me. Huckabee and Barbour took themselves out. I like Herman Cain, and this might be the best year ever for a political rookie to run, but I just can’t see him getting elected President as his first elected office. I like Chris Christie, but he hasn’t been in office long enough and there is still a lot we don’t know about him from a conservative perspective. I would really love to like Tim Pawlenty. He has a decent record, but my excitement meter just doesn’t jump off zero for him. Right now, that leaves Mitch Daniels. There is much I like about him, and being a native-born Hoosier (though Boilermaker by the grace of God!), I am predisposed to support him. At first, I thought he was too charisma-deprived, but the more I find out about him and hear him, the more I like him. But he has not entered the race yet.

Right now, Daniels is my frontrunner.

…or Should I Follow My Heart

As I laid out previously on RedState, I have been a fan of Sarah Palin’s since almost a year before John McCain picked her. Seeing her selected and watching her RNC speech were, next to attending Reagan’s first inaugural, the political highlight of my life. Although she has made some mistakes since then, I am incredibly impressed with how she has taken political and personal barbs at an unprecedented level and maintained a positive attitude and not backed down. ALL Conservatives should take a lesson from her.

I have sported a ‘Sarah Palin 2012′ bumper sticker on my car since the day after Obama’s election. I feel an emotional connection with her like I have only felt for two politicians in my lifetime: Ronald Reagan and my grandfather (an Indiana county councilman for 24 years). [side note: I don't know if my wife would believe that it is a strictly political connection, but I swear it is! Well, at least 95%!]

I do believe the arguments I have made at RedState in favor of her electability. While I acknowledge that she is in a tough position right now, campaigns have a way of changing things (just ask Ronald Reagan). It would be difficult, but I believe in my heart that if anyone can do it, she can. And even though her record as Alaska governor is abbreviated and mixed, I have faith that the principles she holds in her gut are the right ones and that she would make sound decisions as President.

So What’s a Man To Do?

Help me, Kevin Cronin! You posed the question, but you didn’t answer it.

My saving grace is that neither Mitch Daniels nor Sarah Palin has answered the bell and jumped in the ring. Thank God(!) I don’t have to decide anything yet. Maybe neither will enter, in which case I will be floundering around even more! Maybe only one of them will enter, and my decision will be easy.

I have thought long and hard about what I would do if both entered. As an engineer, I am not by nature an emotional guy. My Head should win. It may ultimately triumph. But for now, try as I might, there is just something about Sarah Palin. I just can’t quit this woman!

Ronald Reagan spent his entire political life fighting Communism. He dedicated much of his Presidency to winning the Cold War. He had the guts to call the USSR the “Evil Empire“. Within a few years of the end of his second term, the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed. The culmination of his resolve and his steel spine was the ultimate victory over tyranny, and he lived to see it.

Thank God he did not live long enough to see his America threatened by statism from within, from someone duly elected to hold the same office he held. If Reagan were alive today, I’ve no doubt that he would be fighting against Obama’s socialist agenda with all his heart and soul. To have Time magazine desecrate his memory, on the verge of his 100th birthday celebration, is unforgivable.

So what can we do about it? Should we just ignore it and write it off as just one more example of the death of journalism, the bias of the lamestream media? No! I won’t do it. They’ve gone too far this time. But, alas, I am not a violent person. So here is what I will do, and I suggest you do the same if you agree with me. I will print out a full-page version of the Time cover (they won’t get a dime from me for the real cover!!). I will cut out Reagan’s picture, then shred the remainder. I will put the Reagan photo, along with the shreddings of the rest, in a regular mailing envelope, along with a note that I will never ever ever buy a copy of Time magazine again. And that goes for any that have Sarah Palin on the cover (and those of you that know me should know how significant that statement is .

I will then mail this package to:
John Q. Griffin
President, Time Inc. News Group
1271 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10020

I suspect it won’t make any difference, but it will make me feel better and that is the most important thing! If you feel the same as I do, I recommend you do the same. Or if you have a better (non-violent of course!) suggestion, post it in the comments.

1. Post your votes publicly as comments to this diary (this will limit it to RedState members).
2. List ALL 4 candidates in ranked order (#1=favorite, #2=2nd favorite, #3=3rd favorite, #4=4th favorite).
3. You MUST list all 4 candidates or I will not count your votes. In this round, I will NOT accept “None of the Above” as one of your votes.
4. All votes must be for one of the 4 listed candidates.
5. Please do not add any narrative to your votes to keep the page size down.
6. I will leave this “open” until noon EST on Thursday, January 6, then tally the votes.
7. Votes will be assigned by points (1st choice = 5 points, 2nd choice = 3 points, 3rd choice = 2 points, 4th choice = 1 point)
8. This is just for fun as an alternative way to conduct a poll.

The candidates are (in alphabetical order):
1. Haley Barbour
2. Mitch Daniels
3. Sarah Palin
4. Mike Pence

Enjoy!

1. Post your votes publicly as comments to this diary (this will limit it to RedState members).
2. List your TOP 3 candidates in ranked order (#1=favorite, #2=2nd favorite, #3=3rd favorite).
3. You MUST list 3 candidates or I will not count your votes. In this round and any subsequent rounds, I will NOT accept “None of the Above” as one of your votes.
4. All votes must be for one of the 8 listed candidates.
5. Please do not add any narrative to your votes to keep the page size down.
6. I will leave this “open” until noon EST on Thursday, then tally the votes.
7. Votes will be assigned by points (1st choice = 4 points, 2nd choice = 2 points, 3rd choice = 1 point)
8. This is just for fun as an alternative way to conduct a poll.

The candidates are (in alphabetical order):
1. Haley Barbour
2. John Bolton
3. Herman Cain
4. Chris Christie
5. Mitch Daniels
6. Sarah Palin
7. Mike Pence
8. Rick Perry

Enjoy!

Here are my “rules”:
1. Post your votes publicly as comments to this diary (this will limit it to RedState members).
2. List your TOP 3 candidates in ranked order (#1=favorite, #2=2nd favorite, #3=3rd favorite).
3. You MUST list 3 candidates or I will not count your votes. I will accept “None of the Above” as one of your votes.
4. Please do not add any narrative to your votes to keep the page size down.
5. I will leave this “open” until noon EST on Tuesday, then tally the votes.
6. Votes will be assigned by points (1st choice = 4 points, 2nd choice = 2 points, 3rd choice = 1 point)
7. This is just for fun as an alternative way to conduct a poll.

My apologies to Erick if you don’t like me doing this in a diary! I suppose you could always shut down comments if you want to, but I hope you won’t.

This is not intended to be a discussion of Sarah Palin’s qualifications for the presidency, experiential or otherwise.  I will leave this to future diarists to discuss.  JSobieski has promised to post to this effect in a comment to JadedByPolitics’ recent Palin missive (now at 350+ comments and 45+ recs).  Frankly, I don’t personally care about that topic at this point.  It is best left to later discussion when we know who the candidates are and can explore their qualifications in a comparative sense.

This diary is also not intended to be an advertisement for a Palin candidacy.  Those who know me here at RS know that I have been a consistent Palin supporter (though last I checked, I didn’t have any drool running down my chin!).  Much of what I discuss below could be applied to any number of potential candidates.

So what is the point?  Here it is, plain and simple.  It is nearly 2 years out from the presidential election of 2012.  At the end of 1974, Nixon had just resigned and virtually no one had heard of a certain Georgia governor by the name of Jimmy Carter.  Two years later, he was President-Elect.  In 1978, most pundits thought Ronald Reagan was a right-wing warmongering extremist dunce that could never win a general election.  Heck, even within a week of his 10-point victory, he was virtually tied in most polls with an incredibly ineffective and unpopular Carter.  In 1990, hardly anyone thought an unknown governor of Arkansas had a shot at being elected.  Two years later, we had the beginning of a 2-term Clinton presidency.  And finally, in late 2006, hardly anyone thought that the Hillary Express could be stopped, especially by a newly-elected senator from Illinois with zero executive experience.  The rest, as they say, is history.

The only thing funnier than watching economists attempt to forecast market trends, is watching political pundits try to forecast political elections.  It is simply absurd to state with any certainty what will happen in 2012, either in the primaries or in the general election.  So if you read or hear someone saying “Palin is unelectable” or “Palin will wipe the floor with Obama”, or even “Daniels is too boring to win” or “Pence is not well-known enough to win a national election” or “Mickey Mouse could beat Obama in 2012″ or any variation thereof, feel free to chuckle out loud at the absurdity of the statement.  Anyone (including me!) who would make such a statement is either separated from reality or, more likely, exposing their personal bias towards or against a particular candidate.

All that said, the ultimate point of this diary (as belied by the title), is to particularly address the first of the absurd statements mentioned above (i.e. “Palin is unelectable”).  We don’t know if she’ll even run, and she very well may fall flat on her face in the primaries.  But the political landscape of Alaska, and to some extent America, is littered with the carcasses of those who have underestimated her.  So here I will make an argument for at least the plausability of a Palin general election victory.

It was the worst of times…

Sarah Palin of November 2010

1. is a failed GOP vice-presidential candidate
2. is viewed, rightly or wrongly, as divisive and polarizing by many voters, particularly independents
3. has an upside-down favorability rating
4. is viewed by many voters as “stupid” or intellectually “uncurious”
5. has a personal and family life viewed as a national soap opera by many
6. is best known for only one interview in which she did not perform well
7. trails Obama in all head-to-head early polling
8. has many Republicans (even conservative ones) doubting that she is qualified to be president
9. is viewed as “unelectable” by many in the GOP
10. has never participated in a presidential debate
11. is not actually running for president

It was the best of times…

OK, you have to use your imagination for this one!  As mentioned above, she may not even run.  But if she does, even many of those who view her as “unelectable” in the general election, acknowledge that she would be a formidable candidate for the GOP nomination.  So imagine we have just come out of the 2012 nominating conventions, and Sarah Palin is the GOP nominee. Now consider the

Sarah Palin of September 2012

1. has been a candidate for president for months
2. has run a successful campaign for the GOP nomination, defeating several other qualified candidates
3. has participated in a good number of presidential debates, apparently successfully
4. has demonstrated the ability to garner support across a broad geographical area necessary to win the nomination
5. has a unified GOP behind her, motivated to prevent a second Obama term
6. has given literally dozens of national interviews to a public now forced to consider her as a viable candidate
7. has a running mate with his/her own political and geographic strengths (as long as we’re imagining, maybe it’s Marco Rubio?)
8. is now a truly historic figure as the first woman nominee of a major party and one step removed from being the first woman president

Conclusion

As I argued above, it would be foolish of me to say that this would certainly all end well.  If this scenario were to occur, Palin could well go down in flames in the general election.  She may utterly fail at being able to pull independent voters to the GOP.  But keep in mind that the “worst of times” Palin trails Obama in head-to-head polls by anywhere from 4-12 points right now.  It is not at all implausible to view the “best of times” Palin as being able to more than make up this margin.  And this argument is based solely on the characteristics described above.  It does not depend on any magical transformation of her personality or her image.  It simply follows from a successful campaign.

So please, if you want to discuss the pros/cons of a Palin candidacy (or Romney, Huckabee, Pence, Pawlenty, Gingrich or whoever), let’s do it.  But beware of stating unequivocally that any candidate is “unelectable” or “a shoe-in”.  At 700+ days prior to the election, that is equivalent to a meterologist telling you it is going to snow on Super Bowl Sunday 2012.

Any of you sports fans have certainly seen the Power Rankings for MLB, NCAA football, and other sports at the FoxSports site (among others). The NBA even has their own. So I thought it might be fun to start posting a 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination Power Rankings.

The purposes of these Power Rankings are simple:

• Have fun!
• Spark discussion
• Track ups and downs of the 2012 GOP race

The sports power rankings are basically one man (or woman)’s opinion and are completely meaningless. Just like these rankings! These are not meant to be predictive. They are just meant to be a snapshot of current sentiments. Candidates who are ranked highly now may not run, or they may fade. New candidates will show up. My plan (assuming anybody cares enough to read and/or comment on these!) is to update them roughly monthly until the 2012 campaign starts to heat up. Then maybe bi-weekly or even weekly.

I should also point out that these rankings are strictly my impressions of who is in the best position vis-a-vis the GOP nomination race. I make no statement about who should get the nomination or who would have the best chance to beat Obama.

Finally, please take these as they are intended, just to have a little fun. If you think I’m wrong or nuts, please (respectfully) comment as such. If I’m leaving out your favorite potential candidate, add a comment to that effect.

Maybe I’ll even add some odds once we get closer! (No wagering, please.)

azaeroprof’s 2012 GOP Presidential Power Rankings

Rank	Candidate	Prev Rank	Comment
1	Mitt Romney	1	Still most organized and well-funded. 2008 experience. Runs a slight Number 1 in most of the early polls. Still has that RomneyCare albatross around his neck. Closest to a concensus front-runner at this point, which probably works against him.
2	Sarah Palin	2	Clearly has the most devoted and largest following of any potential candidates. Conservative rock star. Still has work to do to appeal to moderates and beef up her policy resume. Has done nothing but raise her stock during the 2010 midterms. Book coming out next week will get her more attention. Even Joe Biden cautions against underestimating her. Well, on second thought,…
3	Rick Perry	3	Solid re-election, the strength of the Texas economy and Perry’s ability to remain a popular governor through two full terms work to his favor. Despite his protestations to the contrary, his recent public statements indicate he is definitely thinking national politics.
4	Mitch Daniels	4	May be the nation’s most successful and competent governor. Turned Indiana’s fiscal ship around during a horrible recession. Not the most charismatic guy, but America may well be ready for boring after 4 years of Obama’s left-wing drama queen act. Criticisms of social conservatives may make it tougher for him to come out of GOP nomination fight.
5	Chris Christie	15	Not exactly Mr. Attractive TV candidate, but you sure cannot discount his ability to get elected in a tough environment for Republicans. And then to turn around and govern like a Conservative! His early success in New Jersey has made him a darling among many in the GOP already.
6	Haley Barbour	7	Anyone else like Barbour could be discounted as too good-ole Southern boy. But Barbour cannot be ignored based on his success as Mississippi governor, especially in the face of natural disasters, and his longstanding party leadership. He probably has more chits and favors owed to him than any other potential candidate, and his leadership of the RGA showed he has no interest in resting on his laurels.
7	Newt Gingrich	6	Despite his baggage and bizarre tendency to stray off the Conservative reservation from time to time, Newt remains a powerful force and eloquent spokesman for the movement. As he has grayed, he has mellowed and made his personality a little more sugar and less vinegar to the center and left voters. Still an idea machine and someone to watch for a veep nod if he doesn’t secure the nomination.
8	Jon Hunstman, Jr.	5	Popular former governor of Utah. Thought by many to have quelled presidential aspirations when he accepted Obama’s appointment as U.S. Ambassador to China. I don’t think so. This may actually position him well to be seen as bipartisan. Being from Utah may make him a little more palatable to conservatives as well. Someone to watch.
9	Mike Huckabee	8	One of the big 3 in early polls, but I don’t see him as a serious contender. His best bet was against McCain in ’08, but he “didn’t wear well in the wash.” Definitely appeals to SoCons, but his fiscal conservative bonafides are questionable.
10	Tim Pawlenty	9	Yes, he has been an effective governor elected twice in one of the most Democratic states (from a POTUS perspective anyway). But he just doesn’t generate the kind of excitement and buzz among grassroots Repubs and Conservatives (though this does seem to be increasing), and this is a requirement to get the kind of support required. Would likely rank higher on a list of Who would do well in a general election? ranking, but this is not the purpose here.
11	Mike Pence	11	Well-liked by the conservative movement types, but still very unknown outside of Indiana. Jumping from the House of Representatives to President is a huge jump, so he is not likely a threat to win. But if he resonates with the national voters and makes a splash, he could be a contender for the #2 spot.
12	Bobby Jindal	14	Is starting to show signs that he may run. Tanked in his big-time premier. But his record and fairly high national name recognition may give him a mulligan. If he can shore up his rhetoric and display more of a fire in his belly, he could be a player (if he chooses).
13	John Thune	10	Attractive, though largely unknown, candidate. Giant-killer from knocking off Tom Daschle, Thune has built up support within the GOP. As Romney, Palin and some others flirt with overexposure, Thune may be a refreshing new face for the public to get to know. What we don’t know at this point is whether the voters outside of South Dakota will love him or be indifferent to him.
14	Scott Brown	13	Still new, too liberal, and unknown interest. But he’s as close as we have to being a #2 rock star after Sarah Palin. If he could endear himself to Conservatives enough to be in contention for the nomination, he could be a heavyweight in the general. But Conservatives will likely rule the nomination process, which doesn’t bode well for his chances. VP maybe?
15	Liz Cheney	12	OK, I know many of you here at RedState would like to see her rated more highly. And she is one of our most effective critics of the Obama admin. Still, her last name is Cheney and that will continue to be a net minus among the larger population of voters. And like many of the folks on this list, we don’t even know if she is interested in running. Hasn’t shown any particular interest in running.

Any of you sports fans have certainly seen the Power Rankings for MLB and various sports at the FoxSports site (among others). The NBA even has their own. So I thought it might be fun to start posting a 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination Power Rankings.

The purposes of these Power Rankings are simple:

• Have fun!
• Spark discussion
• Track ups and downs of the 2012 GOP race

The sports power rankings are basically one man (or woman)’s opinion and are completely meaningless. Just like these rankings! These are not meant to be predictive. They are just meant to be a snapshot of current sentiments. Candidates who are ranked highly now may not run, or they may fade. New candidates will show up. My plan (assuming anybody cares enough to read and/or comment on these!) is to update them roughly monthly until the 2012 campaign starts to heat up. Then maybe bi-weekly or even weekly.

I should also point out that these rankings are strictly my impressions of who is in the best position vis-a-vis the GOP nomination race. I make no statement about who should get the nomination or who would have the best chance to beat Obama.

Finally, please take these as they are intended, just to have a little fun. If you think I’m wrong or nuts, please (respectfully) comment as such. If I’m leaving out your favorite potential candidate, add a comment to that effect.

Maybe I’ll even add some odds once we get closer! (No wagering, please.)

azaeroprof’s 2012 GOP Presidential Power Rankings

Rank	Candidate	Prev Rank	Comment
1	Mitt Romney	–	Most organized and well-funded. 2008 experience. Number 1 on the strength of his straw poll win at SRLC. Still has that RomneyCare albatross around his neck. Closest to a concensus front-runner at this point, which probably works against him.
2	Sarah Palin	–	Clearly has the most devoted and largest following of any potential candidates. Conservative rock star. Still has work to do to appeal to moderates and beef up her policy resume. Will be most closely-watched candidates during 2010 midterms to see how effective she is at drawing support for other candidates.
3	Rick Perry	–	The strength of the Texas economy and Perry’s ability to remain a popular governor through two full terms work to his favor. Favorite of the Tea Partiers with secession talk. Needs to win reelection handily to maintain his spot near the top of these rankings.
4	Mitch Daniels	–	May be the nation’s most successful and competent governor. Turned Indiana’s fiscal ship around during a horrible recession. Not the most charismatic guy, but America may well be ready for boring after 4 years of Obama’s left-wing drama queen act.
5	Jon Hunstman, Jr.	–	Popular former governor of Utah. Thought by many to have quelled presidential aspirations when he accepted Obama’s appointment as U.S. Ambassador to China. I don’t think so. This may actually position him well to be seen as bipartisan. Being from Utah may make him a little more palatable to conservatives as well. Someone to watch.
6	Newt Gingrich	–	Despite his baggage and bizarre tendency to stray off the Conservative reservation from time to time, Newt remains a powerful force and eloquent spokesman for the movement. As he has grayed, he has mellowed and made his personality a little more sugar and less vinegar to the center and left voters. Still an idea machine and someone to watch for a veep nod if he doesn’t secure the nomination.
7	Haley Barbour	–	Anyone else like Barbour could be discounted as too good-ole Southern boy. But Barbour cannot be ignored based on his success as Mississippi governor, especially in the face of natural disasters, and his longstanding party leadership. He probably has more chits and favors owed to him than any other potential candidate, and his leadership of the RGA shows he has no interest in resting on his laurels.
8	Mike Huckabee	–	I don’t see him as a serious contender. But since it’s early, no serious newcomers have arisen to erase the memory of 2008. May be enough of a power player to impact the race even if he is not in the running for the top spot.
9	Tim Pawlenty	–	Many in the media would have TPaw listed in their Top 3 at this point. I really don’t see it. Yes, he has been an effective governor elected twice in the most Democratic state (from a POTUS perspective anyway). But he just doesn’t generate the kind of excitement and buzz among grassroots Repubs and Conservatives, and this is a requirement to get the kind of support required. Would likely rank higher on a list of Who would do well in a general election? ranking, but this is not the purpose here.
10	John Thune	–	Attractive, though largely unknown, candidate. Giant-killer from knocking off Tom Daschle, Thune has built up support within the GOP. As Romney, Palin and some others flirt with overexposure, Thune may be a refreshing new face for the public to get to know. What we don’t know at this point is whether the voters outside of South Dakota will love him or be indifferent to him. Time will tell, but he is a definite candidate to move up the rankings.
11	Mike Pence	–	Well-liked by the conservative movement types, but still very unknown outside of Indiana. Jumping from the House of Representatives to President is a huge jump, so he is not likely a threat to win. But if he resonates with the national voters and makes a splash, he could be a contender for the #2 spot.
12	Liz Cheney	–	OK, I know many of you here at RedState would like to see her rated more highly. And she is one of our most effective critics of the Obama admin. Still, her last name is Cheney and that will continue to be a net minus among the larger population of voters. And like many of the folks on this list, we don’t even know if she is interested in running. Probably a cycle too early for her.
13	Scott Brown	–	Still new, too liberal, and unknown interest. But he’s as close as we have to being a #2 rock star after Sarah Palin. If he could endear himself to Conservatives enough to be in contention for the nomination, he could be a heavyweight in the general. But Conservatives will likely rule the nomination process, which doesn’t bode well for his chances. VP maybe?
14	Bobby Jindal	–	Says he won’t run. Tanked in his big-time premier. But his record and fairly high national name recognition may give him a mulligan. If he can shore up his rhetoric and display more of a fire in his belly, he could be a player (if he chooses). I see him as more VP material and likely to drop off this list when others start to make their moves after November.
15	Chris Christie	–	Not exactly Mr. Attractive TV candidate, but you sure cannot discount his ability to get elected in a tough environment for Republicans. And then to turn around and govern like a Conservative! I really don’t see him as a strong contender, and he’ll be really too fresh as a governor, but you never know. And if his policies are successful in Jersey, watch out for VP.

Back in 1994, while a graduate student at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, I was one of those misrepresented constituents. I wrote a commentary for the Tech newspaper urging Boucher’s defeat. Someone at the Roanoke Times & World News saw my article and reprinted a version (that I slightly modified) of the commentary. Except for a few dated references, this commentary could apply equally today. It’s just sad that 16 years later, the great people of the Virginia 9th are still stuck with this loser.

So to help add fuel to the anti-Boucher fire, and to relive some old memories from my Virginia days, here is my commentary in its entirety. (By the way, enjoy the reference to the good old days of the Clinton economic stimulus package, with a whopping $16 billion price tag!)

Pork in the 9th: Cleaning up Washington starts at home
by Mark Sensmeier
Monday, Oct. 24, 1994

The November elections are just a few weeks away, and public frustration with the federal government, primarily Congress, seems to be reaching a fevered pitch. We, the people, are fed up with an unaccountable Congress more interested in placating lobbyists and getting re-elected than following the will of the people. There is a plethora of stories of the Rostenkowskis, Packwoods and others who continually abuse the public trust.

Despite our complaints about the unresponsiveness and wastefulness in Washington, the true blame does not rest there. It rests with us. We continue to send the same people back to Congress without thinking about what we are doing. If a member of Congress brings money (translated “pork”) back to his or her home district, we run to the polls to re-elect that person like so many lemmings diving off a cliff.

We think that if our congressman brings lots of federal grants back home, he is helping us out. This could not be farther from the truth. To obtain this pork for our district, our congressman must make a multitude of deals with other members of Congress so they can bring home pork to their district as well.

So we end up having to send more money to Washington to pay for the pork in the other 434 districts than we receive in pork for our own district. The result is that the entire country is hurt and spending spirals out of control, leading to the devastating federal debt we have today.

We have the opportunity here in Virginia’s 9th District to do something about this. In Rick Boucher, we have a perfect illustration of what is wrong with Congress today. The 9th is a large, primarily small-town and rural district. Southwestern Virginians for the most part hold dear the conservative principles on which this nation was founded. But because Boucher is adept at bringing pork home, we keep sending him back to Washington. This, despite the fact that his liberal views and particularly his liberal voting record couldn’t be more out of touch with the views of the majority of voters in the 9th District.

According to Congressional Quarterly, in 1993 he voted to support President Clinton 85 percent of the time, and voted in a Democratic partisan manner 93 percent of the time. On the other hand, Boucher received low ratings from the American Conservative Union (13 percent), the American Security Council (30 percent) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (30 percent).

Boucher also voted in favor of the infamous Clinton economic-stimulus package, a $16 billion waste of taxpayer money. He voted against the Penny-Kasich deficity-reduction bill, against the balanced-budget amendment, and he cast the deciding vote in the 1993 Clinton tax increase.

Despite this liberal voting record, he continues to be easily re-elected in a fairly conservative district. Why? Primarily because he brings the pork home. But to do this, he has to support similar pork spending for other congressmen. The result is that the National Taxpayer Union, the nation’s leading taxpayer watchdog group, rates him as one of the biggest spenders in Congress. In 1993, Boucher voted to increase spending in five out of every six opportunities.

It shouldn’t surprise us that Boucher does not represent the views of the voters in this district. In 1991-92 (the last full cycle reported), Boucher took in campaign receipts of more that $600,000. Out of this total, almost two-thirds (63 percent) was from political action committees (PAC’s). So much for getting special interests out of Washington.

So, if we in the 9th District of Virginia want to help clean up Congress, we have a golden opportunity this November. Let’s stop complaining about Congress, and start doing something about it. Let’s send someone to Washington who will uphold the values of Southwestern Virginians and who won’t make a living wasting taxpayer money. “Kick Rick” on Nov. 8!

Mark Sensmeier of Blacksburgh is a graduate student in engineering science and mechanics at Virginia Tech.

Let’s (FINALLY) Kick Rick in 2010!!

I think most people knew right away to be skeptical of the +5.7% number. The administration originally reported a +3.5% growth rate in the 3rd quarter of ’09, but later revised it down…then down again…and finally to +2.2%. Even still, a +5.7% would likely still be close to +4% even if revised down.

Then, I saw this story which shed a little more light on the report. Apparently, the government decided to try a new little accounting trick on inventories that dramatically overreported the true growth in the economy. For an administration that has been caught with its pants down on bogus stimulus job reporting (including further lies by Obama in the SOTU!), this is par for the course. (And you’ll notice, this report was on MSNBC.com, yes that MSNBC!)

I imagine Axelrod, Plouffe, et al are hard at work trying to figure out a way to cook the Department of Labor’s books to show that unemployment is dramatically decreasing. Geez, while they’re at it, wouldn’t it be easier to claim that millions of Americans have gone off the no-health-insurance list due to Obama’s tough negotiations with the insurance companies! Then they could abandon the health care bill and declare victory!! Hoo-rah!

The conventional wisdom is that Sarah Palin is a *polarizing* figure who has no appeal outside of the very limited radical right-wing base. But check out this paragraph from the above-referenced poll article:

President Obama recently stated that he “probably won’t” read Sarah Palin’s new book. But his possible opponent in the 2012 elections trails him in personal favorability by only seven points (54 percent to 47 percent). Among the critical segment of independent voters, they are virtually even (Obama at 50 percent; Palin at 49 percent).

I report this result not to toot Palin’s horn or say how great she is (as much as I might like to!), but just to highlight a possibly fatal flaw in the conventional wisdom. And her interview performances to date have been pretty decent, so these numbers might be even better a few weeks from now.

And on an anecdotal note: I don’t personally know a lot of people who voted for Obama. I tend to hang out with good conservatives (Boy Scouts, work, church). But I have talked to no fewer than four acquaintances this week who all voted for Obama, now regret it, and voluntarily told me that they watched Palin’s Oprah and/or Baba Wawa interview and now have a completely different opinion of Sarah. It’s a small sample and not quantitative, but I have a gut feeling that this kind of thing is creeping into the national psyche.

Whether you like her or not, she may be in a position soon to play a big role in accelerating the conservative resurgence. Time will tell…

The Obama administration continues to treat dissenters with disdain and put-downs. We’ve been called mobsters, right-wing extremists, domestic terrorists, and even silly. So now today, Baghdad Bob Gibbs likens us to Bluto and his buddies from Animal House for being concerned about Obama’s school speech tomorrow.

You would think by now that Obama, being as brilliantly gifted as he is, might have figured out that putting down half or more of the voters in the country would be politically, well, stupid! But now, he’s really screwed up. Everyone loves the Delta House buddies: Bluto, Pinto, Boon, Otter, Flounder, D-Day, Stork, etc. They are fun-loving and stand up against the evil administration.

Now, Obama and Gibbs have put themselves directly on the side of the Omega’s, the snobby, rich, elitist bunch that everyone hates. So I hope they now enjoy being thought of as Barack ‘Niedermeyer’ Obama, Joe ‘Marmalard’ Biden, and Bobby ‘Diller’ Gibbs. So, to Obama and his administration full of Socialists, Commies, and other assorted political misfits, I say “EAT ME“!

Consider this a holiday open thread and a request to $peciallist and 6eorge Jetson to come up with some really cool photoshops along this theme!

One year ago today, August 29, 2008, political life in America (and my life) underwent a sea change.  On that day, in a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio, John McCain announced that Sarah Palin would be his running mate for the 2008 Presidential election.

Now, this is not a diary to pronounce how Sarah Palin gave birth to her fifth child at the top of Mount Everest while closing up the hole in the ozone layer.  Rather, it is just a personal reflection on that day and what Sarah’s nomination meant to me, and my interpretation of what that has meant, and will continue to mean, to the American body politic.

I first became aware of Sarah Palin in early 2008.  Matt Drudge had a link near the bottom of his page that said something like “Hottie for VP”.  Being a normal American male, I of course followed the link, which led me to Adam Brickley’s now famous (and enshrined in the Library of Congress historical archives) “Draft Sarah Palin for Vice-President” blog.  I immediately began researching Gov. Palin and liked what I saw and read.  I watched every interview with her that I could find.  I even watched clips from the 2006 Alaska gubernatorial debates.  I became convinced that she was the only potential running mate for McCain that would help close the enthusiasm gap between him and Obama, and his best bet for winning the White House.

I spent the next 7 or 8 months pushing this idea to everyone I knew, including commenting on every news article I could find on McCain’s VP choices.  Adam’s blog became a daily fixture for me.  But even as late as August 28, the prospect of a Palin candidacy was just a fringe possibility that very few people gave much credence to.  Two days before the announcement, for the first time in my life (despite being a longtime political activist), I actually prayed to God for a specific political outcome.  I had become disheartened by the media’s love affair with Barack Obama and the minimal prospect of beating him in November.  I so wanted John McCain to do something, anything, to inspire me.  As I went to bed on Thursday night, Drudge had several articles highlighting Tim Pawlenty on his site.  I went to bed hopeful, but somewhat resigned to the likelihood of a disappointing announcement and an unenthusiastic, doomed, Presidential campaign.

When I awoke on Friday morning, I slowly trod to the computer and pulled up the Drudge Report.  To my utter astonishment, there was the McCain/Palin button graphic that I also had on my computer desktop!  The headline said, “And the mate is?”.  I could hardly contain my excitement as I read the articles about the mysterious plane from Alaska to Ohio and watched Fox News speculate on whether or not it was Palin.  When they finally announced that it was official, my family and I were ecstatic.

Now, we all know the story, the ups and downs, that have followed since that fateful day.  We have many disagreements about Sarah Palin: Should she have resigned or not?  Does she have any prospects for future national office, or not?  Is her limited term as Governor an impossible obstacle to future office? And so on, and so on…

But what we are missing in these disagreements, is this.  McCain’s nomination of Sarah Palin, and her subsequent introduction speech electrified a moribund conservative movement like nothing else did, or even could have, at that point in our history.  We were largely a demoralized movement by 2008, worn down by the disappointing presidency of George W. Bush.  While he did keep us safe after 9/11, he betrayed conservatives on very many domestic fronts.  Had he sold himself originally as a moderate Republican, we could have used his failures to energize our movement.  But since he had suckered us in by proclaiming himself a “compassionate conservative”, conservatives now were stuck with the blame for his big government, big spending ways.  The voters had taken note, and wanted nothing to do with conservative politicians.  They were unhappy with the last 8 years, even to the point of backing an unknown, radically leftist, Chicago thug politician with absolutely zero experience running anything.

Sarah Palin’s ascension changed the conservative nation overnight.  Millions of people who had zero (or even negative) enthusiasm about politics and the 2008 campaign suddenly showed up at Republican Headquarters around the country.  The volunteer ranks exploded overnight, and suddenly there were McCain-Palin signs everywhere where previously there were only Obama and “Change We Can Believe In” signs.  The conservative movement had received a transfusion of energy, enthusiasm, and optimism that we had lacked for a long, long time.  From a personal perspective, though I had grown up in an activist Republican family, I had not been involved in party politics for a long time.  I immediately signed up to be a Precinct Committeeman, and now am very active in my county GOP.  I bought a button maker and made almost 2000 buttons for the 2008 campaign, most of which were either given or sold for cost to my county GOP HQ.  They flew off the shelves as fast as I could make them.  We had 10,000 people on our town square for John McCain’s midnight rally on election eve.

Now, of course, the election did not turn out like we had hoped.  My high hopes for a Sarah Palin vice-presidency (and subsequent presidency) now yield sharp pangs of disappointment when I think about them. I haven’t lost my enthusiasm for her, though, and I sincerely believe she will be a player on the national scene for years to come, perhaps even as a national candidate.

But the main point of this diary is not to argue Sarah Palin’s future one way or the other.  It is simply to make the point, on this anniversary date of her debut on the national stage, that McCain’s act of nominating her (and of course her magnificent performance at the GOP National Convention) provided the jolt of electricity that restarted the heart of the conservative movement.  Barack Obama has been a catalyst with his reckless, dangerous, socialist agenda.  But I truly believe that had it not been for Sarah Palin’s nomination, we would not have the effective opposition movement we have today.  Perhaps we would still have a Tea Party movement.  Perhaps we would still be arguing against nationalized health care at congressional town hall meetings.  But the crowds would be much smaller, less effective, and likely less mainstream.  Barack Obama may have gotten us off our butts and out on the streets fighting to restore the America the founders intended, but it was Sarah Palin who woke us up and made sure we were awake to see the threat.

Thanks Sarah!  Happy Anniversary today, both on your marriage and on your selection.  I wish you the best and hope to see many great things from you in the years ahead.

Conservatives, continue to fight the good fight!  We can, and will, save our nation.

First, I offer my condolences to the entire Kennedy family.  Cancer is a brutal killer, and having lost my father-in-law in the last year the same way, I feel for what they have all gone through.  Although I disagreed with Senator Kennedy (and unlike Barbara Boxer, he REALLY DID earn that title) on virtually every issue, I had great respect for his commitment to his principles.  While I considered him an adversary, he was one who fought hard and fair, and who truly believed in what he stood for.  And while he had numerous and legendary personal foibles, he seemed to have straightened that aspect of his life out in recent years.  I do believe that he had personal faith and is likely in Heaven now, hopefully unbearing his long burden by finally apologizing to Mary Jo Kopechne.

In Sen. Kennedy’s honor, here is my personal list of the 5 most effective political speeches I have ever seen.  This list is not based on ideology, but on sheer power of the text, the delivery, and its effect on America’s political discourse.  Feel free to agree or disagree or offer your own candidates.  They are presented in chronological order, as it is difficult to rank them against each other. (I am limiting this list to speeches given in my lifetime, though a couple of them I did not see live.)

1. Martin Luther King, Jr. – “I Have a Dream” speech – 1963 – While not a political speech, per se, its impact was clearly political.  In retrospect, while the Civil Rights battle continues to some extent today, this speech began the end of the bulk of racial prejudice in this country.  Without this one particular speech, I truly believe we would still be waiting for our first President of color.
2. Ronald Reagan – 1964 televised address in support of Barry Goldwater – “A Time For Choosing” – Incredibly effective speech that launched the career of a political superstar, the bookend to FDR as giants of 20th century American politics. 
3.  Ted Kennedy – 1980 Democratic National Convention – “The Dream Will Never Die” – The first speech on my list that I witnessed live.  While I disagreed with virtually every topical aspect of this speech, I was markedly moved by the delivery and the sincere commitment to its central theme exhibited by the Senator.  There is no doubt that, if they could have suspended the delegate rules at that moment, Kennedy would have ousted Carter by a landslide for the nomination.
4. Ronald Reagan – 1987 Brandenburg Gate, Berlin – “Tear Down This Wall” – If I expanded this list to my Top 10, Reagan would probably occupy at least 5 of the spots, if not more.  I saw his 1981 Inaugural Address live and in person and am inclined to include it in the Top 5.  But in all honesty, a speech which presaged the end of the Cold War is more worthy of that spot.  My mind may be a little slow this late at night, but I am hard pressed to think of any speech in human history which had this much impact on the security of the world.
5. Sarah Palin – 2008 Republican National Convention – Barack Obama had just had his coronation in Denver.  John McCain shocked the nation with his selection of a VP candidate, but over 5 days, her opponents and the media (not that there is a difference between the two) had savaged her.  And her daughter’s condition added fuel to that fire.  McCain’s candidacy teetered on the abyss to what could easily have become a McGovern-type loss.  Enter Sarah Palin onto that Minnesota stage.  She delivered an address that not only electrified the audience there, but exuded such poise and effectiveness that it single-handedly revived the McCain campaign.  Without the subsequent mishandling of her by the McCain campaign staff and the financial meltdown, this speech may well have launched one of the greatest political upsets in American history.  As of this date, Sarah Palin’s future political achievements are unknown, but whatever future she has is owed to this speech.

You may have noticed a conspicuous absence on my list of a particular U.S. President who is touted as a great orator.  I have seen a number of Obama’s speeches, including his coronation speech in Denver.  While he has a smooth voice and apparently reads very well, I have not found any speech of his to be particularly memorable or effective.  Other than the words “hope”, “change”, and “yes we can”, I have never heard even any of his fans able to recall any particular portion of his speeches by even the next day.  I am convinced that his reputation as a great orator is largely a modern mythology.  This reputation was very effectively astroturfed by David Axelrod and a willing media into a political movement based on a person, not principles or even words.  At least that’s my opinion.

Again, my prayers and thoughts to the Kennedy family on their loss.

Here’s my story:
After Sarah Palin’s selection last year, I got charged up and and finally submitted a PC application with my county GOP. Since all PC slots in my precinct were vacant (this is not at all unusual), it was just a matter of getting appointed by my County GOP Chair (and then approved by the County Board of Supervisors). I made about 1500 buttons for the campaign, went door-to-door on election day, attended some meetings, etc, enough that some party folks got to know my name and face. When we moved about 2 months ago, I got in touch to change my address and my precinct. Again, all 5 PC slots in my new precinct were vacant, so I just got moved over to the new precinct. The Chair asked me at that time if I wanted to get more involved in the party. Easy answer on that one.

Today, she called me and said the executive committee had elected me as the Youth Group coordinator for the county at their last meeting. It is essentially a new position, so they want to talk to me about what can be done to get ratcheted up before 2010. Basically, I’ll oversee any Young Republican, College Republican, High School Republican, etc groups in the county and try to get more started where they don’t exist already. Basically, I’ll be in charge of outreach to the “younger generation” (like Amy Miller and Jake W!).

All this because I filled out a one-page PC app (and I’ll point out, also too , that none of this would have happened if McCain hadn’t picked Palin, which I had been rooting for for almost a year before it happened thanks to Adam Brickley’s now famous blog!). So if there are any of you that aren’t already PC’s (or other position in your local party), get out there and sign up now! Talk to your conservative friends and get them to do the same. We can electrify this party in time for a huge victory in 2010!

P.S. I might add that my county GOP is already pretty conservative, so there’s no coup necessary here! Just want lots of fresh blood.

However, many of them are not as “educated” in conservative doctrine as are many regular RedState posters. Like many of the folks Obama brought into the process, many of our newbies know only how they “feel” about certain issues or people. Many of these folks have gotten active because they fell in love with Sarah Palin. Many of them just have a gut-level distaste for Barack Obama, making them more inclined to believe the birth certificate conspiracy arguments. (I mention these two issues primarily because they have been the biggest controversial topics of late. There are any number of other issues that will crop up that will be similar emotional catalysts.)

If we want our conservative arguments to prevail, we need a big army! In this army will be officers and enlisted folks, planners and fighters, charge-leaders and back-room dealers. There is a need and room for many. And there will be many disagreements, some of which we’ve already seen. We must be careful not to alienate or chase away these new folks!!!!! Let me make this clear, I am 100% in favor of factual arguments. You think Sarah Palin has made mistakes or is finished with electoral politics, fine. Make that argument. You think she’s great, make that argument. You think Obama’s not eligible to be POTUS, fine, make that argument. You think the whole birth certificate issue has nowhere to go, great. Make that argument. (Full disclosure: I remain a huge Sarah Palin fan; and I believe that Obama was born in Hawaii.)

But RedState should not be an elitist site!! We want a big army, we need a big army. If we call Palin fans, especially those who are new and whose opinions are still largely “feelings-based”, names (e.g. Palinbots) and ridicule them, they will leave our site (and likely political activism) for good. If we make fun of the folks who genuinely believe that Obama has not proven his eligibility (and believe me, I’ve met a good number of them, and they are a completely different, and more normal, group than the Paulites) and make cracks about “tinfoil hats”, we will lose them as well. And believe me, every person who leaves RedState feeling put down or unwelcome will let their like-minded friends know how they were treated or how welcoming our site is.

So please, Redstaters, let’s keep the conversation at this site thoughtful, incisive, witty, and fun. But please dispense with any third-grade name-calling. If I want that, I will go read HuffPo or some other such site.

Ta-ta for now, and see many of you in Atlanta!

So please go to Barnes and Noble or Amazon and order a copy of Jean Fritz’s Traitor: The Case of Benedict Arnold for as many of these turncoats as you can. The book only costs about six dollars, so it’s plenty affordable to send a copy to all 8!

Here are the Washington office addresses for the ‘gang of 8′:

Mary Bono Mack (CA-45)
104 Cannon HOB
Washington, DC 20515

Mike Castle (DE)
1233 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515

Mark Kirk (IL-10)
1030 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515

Leonard Lance (NJ-7)
114 Cannon HOB
Washington, DC 20515

Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2)
2427 Rayburn HOB
Washington, DC 20515

John McHugh (NY-23)
2366 Rayburn HOB
Washington, DC 20515

Dave Reichert
1730 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515

Chris Smith (NJ-4)
2373 Rayburn HOB
Washington, DC 20515