I listened to as many speeches as I could stomach during CPAC this past weekend, perched at my chair in Bloggers’ Row. I would say that the CPAC attendees had found their candidate, if my ears were correct.

The straw poll didn’t fall in line with that though. I thought Rick Santorum has the highest response from any of the three candidates, with Gingrich and Romney rating equally (though i did have to stifle a guffaw at the “severely conservative” remark.

It seemed fairly obvious to me that Romney copied the Paul playbook to bus in a lot of supporters to vote, but it scares me to think that out of 11,000 attendees, only about 4,000 voted in the straw poll. Hellllloooooooooooo?

I think Santorum did well in marshaling support to go forward and stuffing a war chest as much as possible to compete going forward. He clearly seems to be the momentum candidate now, while I have to wonder if Newt’s campaign even has enough resources to make it to Super Tuesday to fully compete in every state. He won’t have any debates to wrest the spotlight back onto him, and might have a hard time finding large donors to continue funding SuperPACs on his behalf (as Adelson did for him in Nevada).

Truly, I wonder if we haven’t just seen the final consolidation of the field into a real two-man race, and the endorsement of Santorum as the not-Romney option.

For anyone hoping to stop the Romney option in Virginia on Super Tuesday, remember – as much as it might sicken you, you might have to pull the lever for Ron Paul if you don’t want to see Romney pick up almost all those delegates. It doesn’t get you the perfect candidate – not yet – but it could help.

We may soon come to the point – less than two weeks, potentially – where the nomination contest will be all but over.

Without any sort of comeback by Rick Perry,  or continued momentum by Rick Santorum, or a return to good graces for the campaign of Newt Gingrich, we may be looking at Mitt Romney sealing the deal on a nomination on March 6, when sixteen states hold their primaries on Super Tuesday.

Mathematically, Romney won’t get there on March 6. He may make the gap large enough that no other candidate stands a realistic chance of catching him.

The idea of “momentum”, though, won’t matter on March 6. It will matter on January 21. Despite Iowa and New Hampshire’s perceived importance in nomination races, it has been South Carolina that has been the bellwether, the firewall, the holding ground that has spurred on recent campaigns to victory.

Since 1980, no candidate has won the Republican nomination without a victory in South Carolina. New Hampshire and Iowa do not sport such a track record – New Hampshire was won by someone other than the nominee in 1996 and 2000, while Iowa has managed to miss the eventual nominee in 1980, 1988, and 2008.

South Carolina has gone 8-for-8.

If Romney takes South Carolina, the “momentum” charge will come to fruition. Other candidates won’t draw in enough to contend, and may drop out sooner than hoped. It will be wrapped up quickly. On the bright side, it might free you up for working on a Senate campaign – since there are plenty of big races in that chamber.

Bottom line: if you want your candidate (not named Romney) to have a fighting chance in this race, you’re going to have to do something in South Carolina over the next twelve days.

Hopefully, I’ll be at the SRLC starting January 18th. Will you?

In 2009, President Obama proposed a stimulus program that was supposed to keep unemployment below 8% via massive government spending and the creation of three to four million jobs. Instead, the $830 billion spending boondoggle known as the “American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan” created almost no jobs as unemployment shot to 10% and the total measure of under-employed shot over 18%.

It appears that the president’s speech tonight will involve proposing more of the same measures which have already failed, just on a smaller scale. The plan will include spending on infrastructure, aid to state and municipal governments in the form of enhanced unemployment benefits, continuing the currently discounted payroll taxes that have been in place since 2009 (and allowing them to rise right after the 2012 election), and another version of a mortgage refinance program similar to the Making Homes Affordable plan included in the last stimulus.

The plan may also include funding for job-training modeled on the “Georgia Works!” program, where individuals receiving unemployment can receive job training at business without cost to the employer, while also receiving a small stipend. However, in seven years of operation, only 4,000 people have been able to find full-time work. There has been criticism leveled from both job-seekers (citing not being paid enough) and from small businesses (citing high numbers of people who leave rather than complete the program). The numbers that have successfully found work through the program are fractional compared to the total number of unemployed in Georgia – yet this may be the big surprise that Obama prepares to unveil tonight.

The speech comes on the heels of the latest news that a grand total of zero jobs were created during the month of August. Given the “success” of the last stimulus in adding nothing but debt, we probably don’t want to be too excited about what gets proposed tonight.

We should, however, stay on the lookout for any mention of “malaise” or “crisis of confidence”. Personally, if we had to pick a Carter moment to replicate, I’d prefer the bunny rabbit.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway pumped billions of dollars into GE and Goldman Sachs to keep them afloat. At the same time, he advocated the passage of TARP in October 2008 to bail out banks and firms to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars – a large portion of which is still outstanding today, despite press releases touting the payback of funds.

Buffett appears to be at it again, investing billions of dollars into troubled banks to prop them up amid deflating book values and spiraling debt. Again, it comes as we head into a heated election season – Buffett had a White House meeting on Tuesday, as more people begin focusing on 2012.

The latest beneficiary is the oft-maligned Bank of America, home of accusations of fraud, bad loans, overpaid mergers, corporate greed gone bad, and of course the aiding and abetting of illegal immigration. Bank of America will receive a $5 billion infusion from Berkshire Hathaway in exchange for preferred stock.

Reports have been flying fast and furious regarding liquidity problems for the larger banks, with Bank of America at the top of the list. Despite reports of near-insolvency, a press release indicated the bank was in dire need to raise capital, while other stories were floated regarding immediate government bailout and/or acquisition by JP Morgan Chase.

BofA denied these reports again yesterday – right before the announcement came out that it had gone and done exactly that with the Buffett investment. Buffett is already coming out if the deal looking great, as the stock is already 15% above the purchase price of his warrants. Bank of America, on the other hand, has gotten some short-term cash infusion in exchange for having everyone in the free world know just how bad its problems are.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration gets to avoid – for now – another argument of what companies are “too big to fail” and more charges of just how poor its response is to a failing giant (which supported him in 2008) in an even sicker economy.

The sad part is, this bailout probably won’t be enough.

August 13 may have been a momentous day for Rick Perry’s campaign, when he officially announced his campaign for president.

However, it might have been the final day of any realistic shot for a winning Sarah Palin campaign.

Prior to Perry’s entry, enthusiasm about the current field could be described as lukewarm at best. While Romney was the clear front-runner, it’s difficult to describe his support to date as enthusiastic among the grassroots and activists. Instead, his campaign had a feeling of “it’s his turn now” that has led us down bad paths before in 1996 and 2008.

The remaining candidates, while gathering some more enthusiastic support, had not quite set the world afire yet. The closest consideration could probably be Bachmann’s campaign to date, but even so there has been a feeling that there is a limit to the campaign and a limit as to how well she might fare throughout the primaries – even if she’s already been the recipient of the media’s Sarah treatment. Ron Paul’s campaign also seems to have a limit on where it can go,

It has been as if the rest of us have been waiting for a candidate to jump in that would shake things up and have the weight of someone who could rally people to their cause, and become a front-runner almost overnight.

She’s been rumored to run for ages now, flitting back and forth with the will-she-or-won’t-she act, in a campaign season that takes months of preparation even before becoming official. The longer she delayed, the more likely her would-be supporters would begin supporting other candidates for good.

Sarah could have been that person for people to rally behind….but now, she has waited too long.

With Perry’s announcement, I think a large group of people who would have waited any longer for a Palin campaign have jumped ship. Given Perry’s administrative record and conservative credentials, he has been the one to jump in, grab a lot of people who were waiting for a “true” conservative with experience to jump in, and move to the front of the field.

In doing so, the chance of a Palin campaign may finally be put to rest. I don’t see support rallying back to her with Perry now in the race, and indeed I think she will probably start pushing the Perry campaign instead – much to the dismay of other candidates who might have wanted her in their camp to try and  tout their bona-fides.

Her window to jump in seems to have closed.

I just don’t see her trying to fulfill any Presidential ambition for herself this cycle. She’s had too much fun playing kingmaker in 2010, and I think she’d rather do that again in 2012.

The newest maps for Georgia’s congressional delegation have been released, and one thing is obvious from a quick glance at the maps:

John Barrow is in serious trouble.

The 12th District representative, and one of the few remaining alleged “blue dogs” in the House is going to see a lot of the Obama-friendly portions of his district moved to other representatives. As population has decreased in south Georgia, some reallocation has been required to make room for exploding growth in the northern part of the state. Therefore, in addition to creating a new district in north Georgia, districts in the South are changing shape to accommodate the changing demographics.

Barrow’s case will stand out as the biggest potential flip in 2012. While the current maps make 2nd District Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) more likely to retain his seat (thanks to moving conservative areas to Austin Scott’s realm), they also make Rep. Barrow much more vulnerable.

The old 12th district went 56-44 for Barrow over his opponent, Ray McKinney. The new 12th district, however, removes quite a few blue counties (numbers provided for 2008):

• Warren (58-41 for Obama)
• Taliaferro (65-35)
• Hancock (81-18)
• Most of Baldwin (52-47)
• Half of Chatham/Savannah (57-42)
• Part of Baldwin (52-47)

The above areas covered about 100,000 voters, but that isn’t all. It also adds some very, very red areas to the district:

• Laurens (60-39 for McCain)
• Telfair (57-42)
• Coffee (64-35)
• Jeff Davis (73-26)
• Appling (72-26)
• Richmond County/Augusta (65-34)
• Wheeler (64-36)

These areas cover approximately 130,000 voters.

Considering Barrow’s win in 2010 was only by 22,000 votes, it’ll be tough enough without one other, interesting factor:

He no longer lives in the 12th District.

No, as part of redistricting, he now will reside in the 1st District of Jack Kingston.

To sum up, he’ll either have to move and face a populace that just got a lot more conservative, or stay where he is and take on a powerful, entrenched Republican incumbent in a very difficult race.

John Barrow is in serious trouble.

Tonight, helped by the folks here at RedState, Hot Air, and other respectable right-leaning folks, a drive was held over Twitter to draw attention to conservative candidates who could really use some help in the last three weeks of this campaign.

I took part as well, and I’m sure I ticked off my more liberal followers on twitter with the #1013bomb hashtag coming through repeatedly – but, well, to heck with them. 

I highlighted some candidates in my own tweets, as well as highlighting some others that got sent out. Here’s who I pushed, as much as I could, in my own tiny, almost-broke kind of way:

My tweets:

1. Mike Keown (@mikekeown), GA-02, running against Sanford Bishop. I will probably not be receiving a scholarship from Bishop anytime soon.

2. Renee Ellmers, (@reneeforcongress) NC-02, running against Bob Etheridge. Hopefully Etheridge won’t start shoving me on the street.

3. Liz Carter (@lisbethcarter), GA-04, running against Hank Johnson. Johnson may be too busy worrying about Guam.

4. Joe Walsh (@JoeWalsh8th), IL-08, who is running against Melissa Bean and her hired thug(s). He was not in the Eagles, but maybe life can be good to him.

5. Vicky Hartzler (@vickyhartzler), MO-04, running against Ike Skelton.

6. Ray McKinney (@raymckinney), GA-12, who has moved within striking distance of fake blue dog John Barrow.

Mostly local, but a few other races that are within arms’ reach.