Understanding Palin Power


In a CBS Poll after the 1992 election, 12% of Republicans supported Dan Quayle for President. In 1996, no one clamored for Jack Kemp to run in 2000. After the 2000 campaign, Joe Lieberman’s 2004 effort bombed worse than Howard the Duck. After 2004, John Edwards trailed badly to Hillary Clinton in the earliest Democratic Primary polls, and fell by the wayside leading up to the Obama-Clinton battle.

History has not been kind to losing Vice-Presidential candidates. They are often cast aside as failed marketing gimmicks that didn’t pan out. This is what makes a recent Rasmussen Reports poll remarkable. A national unknown two and a half months ago, Palin leads in a Republican Primary Trial heat by a 64-13% margin, and has a 91% favorable rating among Republicans, including a 65% very favorable rating.

The numbers are astounding. Dole in 1996, Bush in 2000, and Giuliani in 2008 enjoyed numbers in the mid-40s, but I’ve never seen anyone poll more than 50%, let alone more than 60% in a pre-primary trial heat. These numbers often came before people actually knew who the candidates were. Palin’s numbers come after a period in which we’ve learned nearly everything there is to know about her.

Now, given the fickleness of public opinion, her support will certainly cool a little bit over the coming years, and she may not even run for President. But at this moment, she’s the most popular Republican in America.

Why?

First, Sarah Palin is the embodiment of grassroots conservatism. She’s a gun owner, a small businesswoman, a mother, and she’s pro-life to the core. As governor, she’s known for strictly adhering to the State’s Constitution even if it’s not to her political advantage. She’s not a partisan in the sense of focusing on scoring political points on the other side, but let there be no doubt, she is a conservative.

Second, though, has a lot to do with the people in power in the Republican Party. From 1994-2006, Republicans enjoyed amazing levels of power across the nation, yet how were conservatives? Many Republicans, once elected, became one of them (the Government) and forgot about us (the People.) Their focus begins to shift from doing the people’s business to pleasing Teacher’s Unions and big industries. The people were forgotten. Conservative principles were forgotten. Big government conservatism existed as means to politicians securing their power.

I’ve often wished that somebody would get these self-seeking Republican politicians out of office. Yet, the efforts have often been met with heartbreak. In Montana, I twice supported Rob Natelson in the Republican Primary for Governor, only to see him lose in the primary both times. Last year, I voted for a conservative running against my pork barreling Congressman who won re-nomination with 80+% of the vote.

Sarah Palin did it. A former small town Mayor took down the Governor of her state, who had also been a U.S. Senator for four terms. She went into office and reduced spending when the state was in surplus. She took the governor’s luxury jet and placed it on Ebay. Sarah Palin not only represents a picture of conservatism, but she did what most conservatives have been dreaming of doing for more than a decade: Throw a bum out.

The Palin juggernaut is ultimately a rebuke to today’s political class. Grassroots conservatives are tired of them because they are greedy, self-serving, and only care about power. They have become government apparatchiks. They do have great experience, which they tout repeatedly. They’re only problem is that it’s all in selling themselves to the highest bidder. Their claims to conservative values are entirely self-serving alliances of convenience.

Whether or not she runs for President in 2012, if the GOP wants victory, it’d better produce more political leaders like Sarah Palin.


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31 Comments Leave a comment

Amen, adamsweb and reco'd if for no other

eburke (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 12:13AM EST (link)

reason than these sentences:

Sarah Palin not only represents a picture of conservatism, but she did what most conservatives have been dreaming of doing for more than a decade: Throw a bum out.

The Palin juggernaut is ultimately a rebuke to today’s political class. Grassroots conservatives are tired of them because they are greedy, self-serving, and only care about power. They have become government apparatchiks. They do have great experience, which they tout repeatedly. They’re only problem is that it’s all in selling themselves to the highest bidder. Their claims to conservative values are entirely self-serving alliances of convenience

Nail, meet sledgehammer.

Nothing left to say, my man.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 

Excellent review and reminder of what makes Sarah so remarkable

civil truth (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 12:44AM EST (link)

Fame is fickle, so I definitely agree that talking about 2012 is premature. She’s also got her hands full with her governorship, given that the full force of the Federal government will be trying to sabotage her to stop her leadership.

As a spokesperson for conservatism, though, Sarah has no peer at this time.

The greatest evil…is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed, and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voice. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the offices of a thoroughly nasty business concern. -C.S. Lewis

http://www.gmsplace.com/

Yes!

nogyro35 (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 2:24AM EST (link)

This diary had me pumped by Palin’s numbers and then this line.

The Palin juggernaut is ultimately a rebuke to today’s political class.

She shown a spotlight on what was wrong with our politicians, including McCain.

The worst thing about this election was Sarah Palin having to return to Alaska.

 
 

The fact that she doesn't have pretenses is what makes her so appealing.

J. Leg (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 5:18AM EST (link)

President-elect Obama seems like he’s been running for President since the day he was born. You can see that he is practiced, polished, and presidential from years of getting ready for this.

I think Obama has lived to be the President of the United States, and I think thats how liberals like their candidates. They love the unbrideled ambition, that drive that few of us have, the polish the shines brightly.

Palin is refreshing to me because she is none of those things. What you see is what you get. She was a concerned mother who joined the PTA and later the city council, mayor and eventually Governor. She is someone who just started a job with the PTA, did a good job and was able to work her way up the ladder. I hope she gets the best political team possible around her to help her preapre for a 2012 run if she chooses to do it (I could see why she may not want to run in 2012.)

I heard it best explained very simply this cycle: Conservatives like electing one of their own, someone who could be them, whereas liberals like electing people who are, “better than they ever could be.”

The reason why we like the former is because we don’t think any person–regarless of education or pedigree–is better than another person.

 

Amen - and, she's also smart as a whip

RedWhite_and_Truth (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 9:13AM EST (link)

John Lott has a great article (Oct. 6) at Fox in which he points out that Gov. Palin ran rings around Gaffy Biden during the VP debate. here is an excerpt:

When you interview for a job, here is a hint: make sure you know what the job is. Joe Biden failed that test last Thursday. He couldn’t even get right what a vice president does, but the media didn’t notice.

The media is all over itself about how smart and experienced Biden is. Political analyst Charlie Cook is quoted in the Washington Post on Saturday as saying “Biden is clearly so much more knowledgeable, by a factor of about a million.” Saturday Night Live does a skit about Biden being smart, if slimy. Meanwhile, Governor Sarah Palin is treated as being nothing more than a simpleton.

Yet, take Biden’s statement from the debate on the role of the vice president:

Vice President Cheney has been the most dangerous vice president we’ve had probably in American history. The idea he doesn’t realize that Article I of the Constitution defines the role of the vice president of the United States, that’s the Executive Branch. He works in the Executive Branch. He should understand that. Everyone should understand that.

And the primary role of the vice president of the United States of America is to support the president of the United States of America, give that president his or her best judgment when sought, and as vice president, to preside over the Senate, only in a time when in fact there’s a tie vote. The Constitution is explicit.

The only authority the vice president has from the legislative standpoint is the vote, only when there is a tie vote. He has no authority relative to the Congress. The idea he’s part of the Legislative Branch is a bizarre notion invented by Cheney to aggrandize the power of a unitary executive, and look where it has gotten us. It has been very dangerous.

One should be careful when throwing around terms such as “most dangerous” and “bizarre.” But Biden is confusing which part of the Constitution covers the Executive Branch (it is Article II, not Article I).

Instead, it was Palin who got it right. Besides correctly stating that the vice president holds positions in both the executive and legislative branches, she also noted that:

Of course, we know what a vice president does. And that’s not only to preside over the Senate and [I] will take that position very seriously also. I’m thankful the Constitution would allow a bit more authority given to the vice president if that vice president so chooses to exert it in working with the Senate and making sure that we are supportive of the president’s policies and making sure too that our president understands what our strengths are.

Coersion, after all, merely captures man. Freedom captivates him.
– Ronald Reagan

“Anyone that wants the presidency so much that he’ll spend two years organizing and campaigning for it is not to be trusted with the office.”
—David Broder

Quite a few people in Alaska would agree

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 6:20PM EST (link)

with your last line!

She really needs to get a grip on being Governor again and has some serious bridge mending, maybe bridge building, to do here as well. It is easy to be popular when oil is $140/bbl. and you’re giving money away. Oil is at $57 today and that won’t sustain the State’s current operating budget.

In Vino Veritas

Alaska issues

SteveLA (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 6:39PM EST (link)

Achance

What other issues besides budget shortfalls caused by falling oil revenue are facing Alaska? Most of us know little about the state.

If I may have two questions, what’s going to happen with Uncle Ted?

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Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests

 
 
 

Why Sarah Palin is the best choice for 2012

GB221 (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 7:15PM EST (link)

Even in this election the white vote has remained consistently Republican (55% to 43% in 2008). The problem to solve is to persuade Hispanic and African-American to vote Republican. The clue is California proposition 8. Hispanic and African American voted against gay marriage, while voting for Obama. So, they support traditional values. Therefore the way to gain their support is via a candidate that is clearly identified with traditional values. It seems that the left is sensing this, judging from their visceral hate for Sarah Palin, who does not pay lip service to traditional values but actually lives them, and succeeds.

God, SteveLA, where to start?

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 7:47PM EST (link)

The biggest problem for a Republican is “The Bush.” Pretty much everything north of the Alcan and west of the Parks Highway from Fairbanks to Anchorage, that’s roughly two thirds of the State, is sparsely populated, roadless, has no power grid, relies wholly on summer barges and air transport, has no real economy, and is so much a state/federal welfare state that it resembles a cargo cult.

The state’s founders tried a noble experiment of trying to erase the federal Indian distinction and not have different classes of citizenship. It has only sorta, kinda, maybe a little worked. The education and social welfare costs are enormous; we pay those, or most of it anyway. The health care costs are enormous; we and all of you pay those.

A combination of limited instate refinery capacity, no competition and the high transport costs make fuel horrendously expensive and everything runs on it, including the diesel generated electricity. Eau d’Bush is the smell of half-burned diesel that permeates anything that has spent any time in Rural Alaska. Now we have a fairly serious out-migration from The Bush to the urban areas. Most of those people are totally unequipped to live in an urban, wage-earning environment, so they’re either going to be on welfare or in jail in town. I think it is ultimately a good thing that people move out of the truly remote areas but it will be a very painful transition.

However, the hue and cry has started from the Native groups and the Democrats that we have to save the Native Culture, get the price of food and fuel down and provide pink Bubble Up and Rainbow Stew for everybody out there. I get a bit resentful because I don’t recall anybody trying much to save my culture of the single family farm or the single section ranch.

Most Alaskans have never been to rural Alaska. Hell, most Alaskans have never been to Alaska, but you can see it from Anchorage. They neither understand the intractable problems out there or care much. As long as we have plenty of money, they don’t mind some of it being spent out there, but when the money is tight, the Bush gets hind teat unless they have a very powerful legislator or a Democrat Governor looking out for them. So, I think that dynamic is going to be Sarah’s greatest immediate challenge. Throw in all the market losses and that impact on an already strained retirement fund. Labor negotiations with a lot of pent up wage demand. She’ll be busy.

In Vino Veritas

not so fast

hogiewan Tuesday, November 11th at 7:50PM EST (link)

Just because Palin is the best right now doesn’t mean she’s the best for 2012. As much as I hate to see her denigrated by the lefty media and her own campaign staff, I don’t put much faith in her winning a general on the top of the ticket. I do think she’d have done better than McCain, though, but only because conservatism beats a moderate any day.

By the way, I think Jindal has a good shot for ’12 if he wants it, but he’s still pretty young (only saying that he has lots of time, not that he;s not ready). He’d make a great veep

Thanks for that

SteveLA (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 7:51PM EST (link)

A.

Thanks for the ground view of what’s going on in Alaska, every issue you outline makes perfect sense.

It will be interesting to see how Governor Palin deals with these issues.

______________________________________

Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests

You're welcome, I'll wax prolix on the Arctic Wasteland

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 8:29PM EST (link)

full of barbarians anytime. Well, that is what we are to most Americans; they’re still awed that Gov. Palin didn’t show up wearing animal skins and carrying a spear. Psssst, she does wear animal skins sometimes.

In Vino Veritas

Forgot the second question; Uncle Ted, Uncle Ted ...

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 8:41PM EST (link)

I think a majority of Republicans, myself among them, voted for him on the expectation that if he won he’d step down and we could get a one on one shot against Begich with an untainted R.

Stevens is an ornery, cantankerous, arrogant SOB; he may not do it. Do the Ds like the Boy Mayor enough to refuse to seat Stevens so Marky can get overs? Or would they rather have Stevens in the Senate stinking up the place while he appeals? Damfino!

If he steps down, I think John Binkley runs against Begich. It will be a tough, tough proposition, but at least John has some campaign infrastructure from his gubernatorial bid in ’06 and has lots of personal money. Frankly, I think only Palin herself has a better than even shot against Begich and I don’t believe she’ll put herself in that meatgrinder so soon. I wouldn’t be counting on that seat.

In Vino Veritas

Tougher in Alaska

SteveLA (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 9:09PM EST (link)

A.

I enjoy the heck out of the “Tougher in Alaska” series on History channel. I suppose like many in the lower 48 that and Ice Road Truckers (Canadian actually)is about all we know about the frozen North….Well that and “The Lumberjack Song”.

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Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

I agree with you , GB221

ILLINOIS_CONSERV (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 9:15PM EST (link)

I think Sarah Palin is terrific. The interview she did with Greta VS on Fox was awesome. I believe her VP candidacy shaved at least 5 pts off BHO’s eventual victory margin. Nothing against the other VP candidates, but Palin was the one who energized the ticket. However, if she runs against BHO, I do not believe she will not get any significant increase in the African-American vote. They will overwhelmingly support BHO again in 2012. Anyone who watched the coronation in Grant park knows that short of repealing the emancipation proclamation, nothing BHO does will diminsh the lemming-like support of African-Americans for him in 2012. That being said, I do believe Palin can beat him by getting back to the base conservative, pro-life, pro-family message. Latin-American voters will embrace that message as will the strong conservative base of the party.

The only thing necessary for the triumph [of evil] is for good men to do nothing – Edmund Burke

I Hate That Show!

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, November 11th at 11:20PM EST (link)

I’ve been most of the places and done many of the things, and I just don’t think it is all that special. It’s really all just a day at work. You understand the environment, you prepare for it, and you do what you’re getting paid to do – hopefully paid very well.

That guy makes everything seem like some fin d’cicle event that will change the space time continuum. Nah, just another day on the clock. If I could play better with others, I’d be doing this crap in San Diego or some other warm place.

In Vino Veritas

Against Gay Marriage yes, but against abortion?

MikeLaughead Wednesday, November 12th at 10:06AM EST (link)

Just because Black and Hispanic voters voted against gay marriage doesn’t mean that they support all conservative principles. Did Hispanics and Blacks vote to ban abortion in the areas where there was a proposal? I don’t know the data, but let’s not jump the gun just based on one issue in one state.

 
 
 

President-elect Obama support can only decrease

emgbane (Diary) Wednesday, November 12th at 10:14AM EST (link)

President-elect Obama can only become less popular. He did not increase black voter particpation much this election cycle. If exit polls are correct the black vote was up about 2 percent over 2004. Blacks usually vote overwhelming for the democrat, but they have low voter participation the same with hispanics. I believe the average age for hispanics is around 15, so most hispanics are too young to vote anyway and blacks are only 13 percent of the population

President-elect Obama biggest problem is you can promise different things to different groups when running for office, but once you’re there you have to governor. President-elect Obama is either a leftwing-liberal or a moderate. Either way he is going to disappoint some of his supporters.

Some folks who went to polls expecting radical change wont go back if he does not deliver, and if he tries to bring about radical change he will not be re-elected, because America is a center right country.

His dilemma — sometimes your lies catch-up with you.

do they even live there

emgbane (Diary) Wednesday, November 12th at 10:25AM EST (link)

Are they a significant part of the population of the states that tried to ban abortion? Did enough of them vote in those states that we can poll and see what their views were.

It is clear that the black vote was large enough in California to measure, and it broke differently then the white vote on the marriage question. Would that be the case on the abortion question? I do not think we have enough data to say, perhaps if the vote had been in Mississippi or South Carolina we’d be able to gage black voter opinion on an abortion ban.

Not for Palin

emgbane (Diary) Wednesday, November 12th at 10:40AM EST (link)

Palin-Jidal would be an unbalanced ticket. Palin will need someone with foreign policy and national security credentials, but hopefully not a senator.

Here’s a nightmare Palin-Powell. Here’s a smile Palin-Franks. Here’s a sure loser Palin-Boulton. Here’s another loser Palin-Rice.

I’m sure there are better choices, but if you have a governor you need to balance the ticket with someone with foreign policy and national security credentials, i.e. Bush 41, and Dick Cheney.

Hispanics

Shawn Gillogly (Diary) Thursday, November 13th at 6:41AM EST (link)

Typically hold staunch pro-life positions. Especially the ones who haven’t been indoctrinated by the left yet.

“Liberals are always talking about pluralism, but that is not what they mean. In public school, Jews don’t meet Christians. Christians don’t meet Hindus. Everybody meets nothing.”- Dennis Prager

Palin, not a good idea

communitarian Thursday, November 13th at 1:06PM EST (link)

Let me put it out there upfront. I am a leftist (not left-leaning, left all the way) from the People’s Republic of Massachusetts, and I believe that Republicans are making a huge mistake by advocating for Sarah Palin for any political office beyond her current stint as governor.

Her name is known to most of the nation only because McCain, in a desperate and cynical attempt to gain the “Hillary vote,” selected her over many, many more qualified candidates. She did not represent your party well and has become a source of national amusement. I understand that many of you are committed to her because of her popularity among the “base,” but Palin simply cannot be taken seriously. She will not benefit you in any way, and even four years will not prepare her to face and address the difficult questions of politics and economics seriously. Neither will she be taken seriously by foreign heads of state, who are generally serious intellectuals who have quite hefty educational and policy resumes.

Naturally, I hope that Obama has an outstanding first term and can and will undo much of the national damage perpetrated by the Republican right. No matter what happens, however, you would do well to return Sarah Palin to her relative obscurity.

Sorry. That is not well thought.

Mark Kilmer (Diary) Thursday, November 13th at 1:26PM EST (link)

Foreign heads of state are generally dunderheads, not intellectuals. The American left is too easily driven to swoon by a nifty, European accent.

All you know of Sarah Palin’s grasp of policy and intellect you’ve learned from an SNL skit. You’ve eaten what you’ve been fed by the media.

If Sarah Palin is to emerge as a leader of the Republican Party, she will have to prove herself just like any other candidate. That is how the GOP works, while it is not a requirement for the Democrats. Obama has not proven himself as anything but a skillful orator who does well with a script. But now his actions in an unscripted world will have tremendous consequences, and I pray that he surrounds himself with people who know what they’re doing. I pray his Administration can keep this country safe.

this shows us we are on the right track.

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Thursday, November 13th at 1:33PM EST (link)

Nice try.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

Amen, EPU

Joe_Schmo (Diary) Thursday, November 13th at 3:16PM EST (link)

Nothing shows us the correct path clearer than a liberal stopping by to say “don’t go that direction”.

Seen the Fox News interviews?

CFPeterson (Diary) Thursday, November 13th at 4:36PM EST (link)

She’s still in the limelight and didn’t take a week off like Sen McCain. I have a feeling Gov Palin got a taste of the national political scene and actually is willing to go back into it… for America. God bless her.

If Palin runs in 2012... or later

Jill1066 Thursday, November 13th at 7:37PM EST (link)

Assuming she won the nomination, she would need someone to balance out the ticket. Probably a Cheney-type – older, experienced in foreign policy, and a good person to watch her back.

One person I can guarantee you will not be on any future Republican ticket will be Colin Powell. His best opportunity to run for elected office was in 2000. It didn’t appeal to him and he obviously wasn’t interested in a VP nomination. Since he turned away from the GOP to endorse Obama instead of remaining neutral or endorsing McCain I think it’s highly unlikely he’d be considered for a future high position in an Republican administration. Secretary Powell had a perfect right to endorse whoever he felt would be best, but this will preclude him from further high positions with the GOP. Considering that he cited Sarah Palin as one of his “reasons” for backing Obama, it’s not terribly likley he’d switch to supporting Palin.

As black voter support wains...

izoneguy (Diary) Thursday, November 13th at 7:46PM EST (link)

….they will just drop out.

Once they figure out the ONE will not deliver them the promised goods they will just stay home during the next election.

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

communitarian strikes again

communitarian Thursday, November 13th at 9:32PM EST (link)

I guess I’ll get punched soon since I’m a leftover Hippie. You cannot simply assert that a. my comments are not well-thought-out or b. Liberals swoon over foreign accents without backing up your assertion–saying something does not make it true: a trick that Republicans have used, unfortunately, with some success.

Please do not tell me what I know or don’t know. I don’t stay up late enough to watch SNL, (as if it mattered) being the old, tired Liberal I am, and, like most intelligent people, I love to gather information from different sources and weigh its validity.

Yes, liberals like to elect people who are smarter, not better, than they. As David Brooks, one of your own, said, and I paraphrase, what is dangerous about many from the Right is that they not only disagree with your ideas, but find fault with having ideas in the first place.

There are those of you who would actually denigrate intelligence and academic credentials in favor of “Joe Six Pack?” If I want to have a beer (oops, Liberals don’t drink beer unless it’s an expensive micro-brew) then Joe is just fine. If I want someone who can run the country, then a community organizer, Harvard Law Review Editor, Wall Street worker (that’s right, a year on Wall Street)and Constitutional Law Professor is my choice–and obviously the choice of the electorate.

more of that communitarian

communitarian Thursday, November 13th at 9:39PM EST (link)

And while we’re swooning over foreign accents, Sarah gushed pretty enthusiastically over the fake Sarkozy. She didn’t even get it after several comments which were obviously just silly. She bought it: please don’t buy her.

I agree

emgbane (Diary) Sunday, November 16th at 12:10AM EST (link)

I agree. I was just joking about Powell, I literally meant nightmare, like waking up in a cold sweat.