Today’s Insider Advantage poll puts Obama up 6 in Virginia, with the last three polls indicating an Obama lead. So after several months, I’m moving Virginia out of toss-up and to “Leans Obama.”
The Latest Public Policy Polling has Obama up 3. This is after other recent polls have shown a tie, and two others have shown McCain +1. I hate to do this (and I also hated to move Virginia but lamenting the state of the race in two straight paragraphs is lame) but Florida is now a Toss-up.
Simply put, Obama has a clear, functional electoral college majority for the first time since I’ve been posting on the state of the race.
Turning this around depends on everybody, including the candidate, doing their part. I made five calls into Nevada for Senator McCain tonight.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
Florida
sturner Tuesday, September 30th at 11:04PM EST (link)The news on Florida is the scariest of all. Particularly because I don’t think there is a way that Senator McCain wins without the state. From what I’ve read, he is not putting much money into the state at all while Obama has started pumping in funds. My brother who lives there tells me he sees Obama volunteers everywhere too getting people registered and knocking on doors.
Senator McCain might have to take Florida a little more serious in the coming weeks.
As long as Obama is leading by 6+
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 7:58AM EST (link)This map is about the best McCain will see in November. If the election was held today, Obama would win big.
The financial meltdown has hurt McCain badly, and he will need to do a lot more than he has been to turn this around.
There is some faint hope that a quick resolution to the financial mess and two outstanding debate performances can turn things for him. But right now, this is Obama’s election to lose.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
GOOD LORD what has happened to you Dave?
PaRep (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 8:14AM EST (link)WaPO/Abc Has it a 4 point lead for Obama & you believe these polls
WaPo/ABC poll is still skewed for Obama & he has lost over half his lead from the Last poll
Depends on where you live in Florida, Sturner
SG_Lominac (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 8:20AM EST (link)Up here in the Panhandle, it’s nothing but McCain/Palin signs and bumper stickers.
From the movie “Hard Times”
Jill Ireland: “What does it feel like to knock somebody down?”
Charles Bronson: “It makes me feel a hell of a lot better than it does him.”
You are right, Pa
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 8:34AM EST (link)And I’m about to do a diary on Rasmussen, the McCain slide has thankfully stopped.
But there is no other way to look at it, McCain is currently behind and will lose without taking action.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Coming Back from the DARK Side Eh Dave ??
PaRep (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 8:37AM EST (link)HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA !!
Welcome Back
Rasmussen used to be good
PaRep (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 8:41AM EST (link)This cycle he is at least 3 to 4 days late on every Bounce Dem. & Rep.
Colorado.
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 8:48AM EST (link)Latest Rasmussen has Obama +1. It hasn’t been this close for quite a long time. I wouldn’t paint CO blue just yet.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
I'm still looking for that reason for a McCain bounce, Pa
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 9:11AM EST (link)Rasmussen might be late with the bounces, but the bounces have reasons. McCain needs a reason.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
he had one for the Palin pick &
PaRep (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 9:18AM EST (link)RNC, BUT Rasmussen didn’t pick it up for at least 3 to 4 days, As with all the bounces
Rasmssuen has gotten smug the more press he has gotten
He was on Fox & someone(Can’t remember who) asked him about the Bradley Effect & he got a sneer on his face & said condescendingly I don’t see it having much of an effect, I have not seen it in my polling. WELL DUHHHH ! Of course you aren’t going to see it, They aren’t telling you the truth about who they’re going to vote for & you think they come out of the blue & tell you BY THE WAY I LYING TO YOU & OTHER POLLSTERS ABOUT VOTING FOR OBAMA
Putz !!!!
Gas prices and offshore drilling were behind the last one.
birdmojo (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 9:42AM EST (link)You may notice that we’re no longer talking about either.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. –Voltaire
North Carolina
Menlo (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 10:02AM EST (link)Shouldn’t NC be either blue or gray based on the recent polls from there?
If Obama’s recent leads there weren’t enough, the Democrat running for the Senate there appears more likely than not to beat Dole.
“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter
If there is another bump in the polls
neum432 (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 10:39AM EST (link)it will be away from Obama and back to undecided. There is a way McCain can win this thing if doubt about Obama can be increased. Yet, I don’t see people flocking to support McCain. Some D’s I know will probably stay home or not vote for POTUS if they are reminded about the risk of an Obama presidency. McCain needs to hit Obama on his liberal econ. policy. Hitting Obama on his socialist foreign policy ideas will not be effective in this debate dominated by economic issues.
“To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
UMMMMMMMM WHAT????
PaRep (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 10:46AM EST (link).
It's a Valid Point
adamsweb (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 11:48PM EST (link)One more legitimate poll out of North Carolina with Obama leading or McCain leading by less than 2 and I’m prepared to do that. I tend to be conservative on both sides of the map. I look for multiple polls to tell me something and if a state is producing results I find unbelievable, I’m going to need more data.
It's One Poll
adamsweb (Diary) Wednesday, October 1st at 11:52PM EST (link)I love Rasmussen, but at this point, Rasmussen is one poll showing a one point lead. An outlier. Obama has led the last 8 public polls reported on Real Clear Politics and 12 of the last 13 dating back to September 7th. Now, if I start seeing polls bounce back and forth as to who is leading in Colorado, or every poll shows Obama by 1 or 2, then I’ll change it.