As I informed Erick, Ben, and Mike several weeks ago, and as I decided myself several months ago, my long stint with RedState will come to an end now that the election cycle has concluded.

Like many others after me, I found RedState as a random internet reader, way back in 2004. I was not politically active, but politically interested. Picked out of a crowd by Mike to cover the Coburn SEN race, the Powers That Be never told me to leave afterwards. I have taken advantage of that kindness for several years longer than I probably should have.

Blogging has made me more informed about policy, about politics, about coalitions, about how things work, and about why so many people despise all of the above. I’ve watched the site morph several times across platforms, goals, strategies, size, scope, and personalities. I’ve enjoyed watching success and failure through RedState, as part of a community.

RedState opened the door to my attending my first RNC this year. It allowed me to ride along with the future GOP nominee for President of the United States, and it got me identical treatment as CNN, Time, and FoxNews on the back of the Straight Talk Express. It has let me meet people, attend events, and be informed in a way that I would never have been without it.

But for personal, professional, and political reasons, it is time for my participation to end. Thank you all for your time, effort, patience, and honest debate. I enjoyed our conversations and exchanges of ideas. And I hope the site continues its success in my absence.

Rain? Sun? Voter lines? Black panthers?

Give us an update. Put your voting experience here. Put your projections here. Put your rambling thoughts here.

Open Thread.

Tell us your voting story. Tell us about any irregularities. Give us your best “why the polls are wrong” explanation. Make projections. Or just enjoy watching Democracy at work. Do it here. Open Thread.

These are depressing. Stop now if you don’t want to be saddened.

HOUSE

I don’t follow all the races. But my projection is Ds picking up 18-20 seats. Rs picking up 2-5 seats. And the net change to be 15-18 seat pick up for Ds.

SENATE

Ds will pick up NM, CO, VA, AK, and NH. Period.

I project Ds will also win OR and NC.

Rs will retain GA, KY, and MS easily.

Rs will also hold MN but it will be narrow.

NC and MN will be the closest SEN races with NC going D and MN going R.

Overall, the net change will be D+7 giving the Ds a 58-42 margin. Joe Lieberman may caucus with the GOP if he is pushed out of his chairmanships, thus making the Senate 57-43.

GOVERNOR

Ds pick up MO. NC and WA will be close. I project Rs to pick up NC, but fall short in WA. Overall, the net change will be No Change.

PRESIDENT

Start with the Bush-Kerry map. Here are my projected changes:

Obama wins IA, NM, CO, OH, VA, FL, NV and MO.

McCain holds onto NC, GA, and IN.

This would lead to wide Obama EV margin: 349-189.

[UPDATE: I realize I should add a national popular vote prediction. I project a 53-46 vote tally for Obama.]

LOCAL STUFF

As a current resident of NC with a close PRES, SEN, and GOV race, I have projected the state to go McCain (R), Hagan (D), and McCrory (R).

1) The last batch of swing state polls that came from FOXNews/Rasmussen show the closest numbers in a while. This includes McCain leading in FL (+1) and NC (+1). They show a tie in MO and OH. And they show McCain within striking distance in VA (-4) and CO (-4). Data here.

2) The major battleground states narrowed. Look at the RCP graphs to see the movement: FL, NC, VA, CO, MO, OH. All the graphs show the same spike for McCain and dip for Obama. If that movement is real, we could be seeing the break of undecideds toward McCain.

3) The national polls may be oversampling Democrats. In 2004, the party ID breakdown was 37-37 (D+0). In 2006, it was D 38-36 (D+2) while Independent voters broke heavily to the Ds creating the landslide. Almost everyone expects the D advantage to be greater than 2 this year, but how much greater? Looking at the last national polls released (who give their party ID breakdown), we see the following assumptions: FoxNews(+6), CBS/WSJ (+9), Rasmussen (+6.5), Gallup (+10), and Hotline (+5).

If reality is more like D+3 or D+4, that would mean all of the polls are oversampling Democrats. Combined with undecideds breaking toward McCain, we could see 3-5 point D margins in the polls turn into McCain wins.

4) The gap in favorability ratings has narrowed notably over the last few days. Specifically, Obama’s unfavorable numbers have spiked to their highest level ever, breaking the 40% barrier in 3 polls for the first time since April. And McCain’s favs have spiked up while his unfavs have spiked down in the past few days. Both men have favorability ratings well over 50%, so this election will be decided by people who like them both (unlike in 2004, when it was decided by people who swung between two people they disliked).

That’s the overview. If you’re watching for an optimistic outcome, you want to see PA and VA too close to call when polls close. And you want to see NC or FL look good, early.

Taking a moment to step back from the Presidential race, here are some very close races to watch tomorrow:

SENATE

The Democrats are almost guaranteed to pick up NM, VA, CO, AK and NH. Thus, there are 5 Senate races to watch. Right now they look to go 2-2 with MN as a real toss-up. In order of most likely D pickup, here they are:

State (RCP Ave D lead) (Intrade % of D win)

OR (+5.3) (90%)
NC (+3.3) (85%)

MN (-2.8) (54%)

GA (-2.7) (30%)
KY (-5.7) (20%)

The Ds must win OR, NC, MN and either GA or KY to get the 60 seat filibuster-proof majority.

What to watch for: NC and GA are the first states to see results coming in. If Sen. Dole (R) holds on in NC, the Ds number in the Senate will end up being closer to 55-57 rather than 58-60. If Sen. Chambliss (R) gets upset in GA, the 60 seat majority is possible.

Read on for the rest . . . *

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According to Michael Brodkorb, tomorrow’s Star Tribune has an endorsement of incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. This is quite surprising.

This would be like the NYT endorsing Rudy for GOV. The Strib is one of two papers that is more partisan and unreadable than the NYT (the St. Petersburg rag being the other). Maybe there is some appetite for not giving Ds absolute, unfilibustered power.

Note that the Strib refused to endorse Franken in the primary as well, saying:

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We’re still getting a lot of polling data. For aggregation of state and national polls, see RCP or 538. These include yeseterday’s CNN/Time survey of 4 swing states and today’s Quinnipiac poll of 3 swing states. Here are some random thoughts on some of those polls.

PRES

First, 538 now has McCain projected to win 52% of the time. Intrade has the odds of McCain winning at 51%.

Second, historically red states that were close in the Mountain West and Plains States are moving from competitive to solid red. See ND (McCain +14), MT (McCain +11), and AK (McCain +31). All of those states were within 5 points in polls in July or August. Note that all are dominated by “small towns.” Hopefully this trend is also true in SD and NE. Most importantly, a similar shift in CO would be fantastic news; however, it is less likely for various reasons, mainly because most people live in a big city or its suburbs.

Third, FL is looking good but OH, PA, and MI are not in the McCain column yet. He leads in OH but within the margin of error, and he is losing in some polls. In PA and MI, Obama leads every poll even after the current McCain bounce. McCain must win one of those 3 to win the election. If he wins 2, the paths to 270 get much bigger. It looks like the swing would flip OH to McCain first, then MI, then PA.

Fourth, McCain’s bounce is almost entirely from a major bump among independent voters. McCain went into the convention with 90+% support from the GOP and a rough tie among independents. He trailed because the number of Democrats is larger than the number of Republicans. In most national polls and now in many of the state polls, McCain’s support among Independents has shot up 10-20 points which translates to a 3-6 point overall shift. The pessimistic view is that such a shift is evidence of a convention bounce that can go away easily. The optimistic view is that anti-Bush independents now recongize that McCain is his own man, and he is that guy they liked in 2000 and over the past 8 years.

Fifth, McCain’s favorability also got much better over the past week or two. He is now more popular than Obama, Palin, and Biden. McCain’s +21 fav/unfav is incredibly high for a politician (as is Obama’s +19). State polls in red states (ex. AK, ND) show a big bump for McCain favorability.

Sixth, a lot of non-issue factors have shifted toward McCain by large margins. If you want to look at one poll for interesting questions, this FOX poll is it. It’s worth it’s own post: questions include “is Obama more a talker or a doer,” “if you were making a tough life decision, which candidate would you want advice from,” etc.

Finally, McCain has bridged an amazing gap about who will bring the right “change” to the country. The FOX poll now has Obama ahead on that measure 46-39. More importantly, among independents, McCain leads on that measure by a 38-36 margin. As Nate Silver notes, the Palin choice has reinforced the McCain as Maverick Reformer message. It’s not so much that Palin represents change (she has good but not outstanding numbers because people don’t know much about her), but rather that McCain’s choice of an outside-of-the-box VP nominee is evidence that he isn’t business as usual. I doubt this shift can withstand the next two months, but if McCain can keep some of the bump in the “change” area, he is in a good position.

Other random notes from the last day or so of polls: WV (McCain +5), VA (McCain +6), and NM (McCain +2). The first is surprisingly low, the second encouragingly high, and the third is much better than in the past.

Some SEN polling findings below:

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Yesterday, a slew of national and state polls were released to deduce the “convention” bounce. The broad picture is harder to measure than usual. Because the conventions were back-to-back, we don’t have a good reading of the pre-RNC state of the race. The pre-RNC polls were at the peak of the DNC bounce. Thus, it is unsurprising that the RNC bounce has been bigger (+6) than the DNC bounce (+4). Usually convention bounces dissipate over time, but not always. We need about a week or two to see if that happens. Nevertheless, there is good reason to be excited about some of the recent polling that shows Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin can win the race, and there is a majority in the country willing to support them. The futures markets have responded, giving McCain a 48% chance of winning which is his highest chance of the entire campaign.

STATE POLLS

The slew of FOX News/Rasmussen state polls are actually not great for Sen. McCain. These polls are taken at his convention bounce peak. The best news is the 51-44 lead in OH which even if it narrows is a good margin. The other states are all toss-ups at McCain’s peak: FL (48-48), PA (45-47), VA (49-47). The fact that FL is tied while OH is +7 means it is possible that FL will become a more closely contested state than OH in the end. At the least, this suggests that the McCain campaign will have to spend money in FL that they hadn’t as of late June (no TV ads by then). The VA and PA numbers aren’t bad, but if this is a peak they aren’t good either. The worst number of the 5 states polled is CO where McCain is losing 46-49 at his peak. With the emergence of energy as an issue, many people thought states like CO would move toward McCain. The addition of a hunter and fellow Westerner to the ticket was also thought to help. The one data point we have so far is that the most likely “tipping point” state is still in Obama’s column despite any convention bounce.

Interestingly in those 5 polls, the independent voters are all over the map: OH (+26), PA (-19), VA (+11), FL (-17), and CO (-10). Obama has less than 80% of Dems in FL (79%), OH (78%) and PA (74%). Obama gets 10% of GOPers in CO (10%) and PA (14%).

Besides the FOX News polls, several other state polls help define the current map. The most interesting data includes MI (Obama +1), Washington (Obama +4) and Virginia (McCain +2). The WA number is much closer than past polls and could add a new swing state for McCain to contest. The VA and MI polls echo the FOX News result that the swing state movement is less than the national movement. If McCain is ahead 2 or 3 today but losing MI by 1 and only winning VA by 2, that means the possibility of winning the national vote by 1-2% and losing the electoral vote is real. The one other state poll is a nice Oklahoma showing (McCain +33) that makes me proud to be a Sooner.

National polling analysis below the fold:

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The guys at RealClearPolitics have made their list (in order) of the 25 most competitive House races. Some basic outlines of the House races: 1) GOP retirements have made this likely to be a good year for DEMs; 2) There are some DEM freshman in heavily GOP seats that the GOP could get back; 3) The Party ID advantage that DEMs have created is helping them more in House races.

Of the top 10 most competitive, 7 are GOP retirements (and 8 are GOP held). Overall, 17 of the top 25 are GOP held seats and 8 are DEM held seats. The top pickup chances for the GOP are:

(3.) Louisiana 06 — Cazayoux (D) — One of the harbingers of what could be a mounting Democratic wave could also be one of the shortest-term members of Congress. Rep. Don Cazayoux beat a weak Republican in June, but in November he will face much stronger State Senator Bill Cassidy
(R) as well as independent State Rep. Michael Jackson. Jackson, who is African American, will eat significantly into Cazayoux’s Democratic base.

(6.) Texas 22 — Lampson (D): Rep. Nick Lampson won a very Republican seat in 2006 thanks to the resignation of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (and the fact that no Republican appeared on the general election ballot). Despite a large fundraising edge over Pete Olson (R), a former chief of staff to Sen. John Cornyn (R), the heavy GOP lean of the district and Olson’s talent as a candidate could spell defeat for the incumbent.

(11.) Pennsylvania 11 — Kanjorski (D) — Ethics issues, questionable earmarks and an unremarkable record, coupled with a near-celebrity opponent, put Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) atop national Republicans’ target list. Kanjorski hasn’t faced a real race in decades, and John McCain is likely to win the Scranton-based district, aiding Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R). It’s one race in which the “change” mantra may benefit Republicans.

(13.) Kansas 02 — Boyda (D)
(15.) New Hampshire 01 — Shea-Porter (D)
(16.) Pennsylvania 10 — Carney (D)
(18.) Wisconsin 08 — Kagen (D)
(22.) Florida 16 — Mahoney (D)

The first post Palin poll in Alaska shows big changes, Aug 9-12 (Aug 30 – Sept 2):

Palin Approval 82/13 (+69)

Help/Hurt McCain:
Help 62
Hurt 20

PRES
McCain/Palin 54
Obama/Biden 35

Back in July, McCain led by 2.5 according to the same pollster. Actually, most AK polls have been close (5-10 point McCain lead). It seems Palin has taken a likely R state and made it Big Time R state.

SEN
Begich (D) 49 (56)
Stevens (R) 46 (39)

REP
Berkowitz (D) 54 (51)
Young (R) 37 (41)

Berkowitz (D) 42 (38)

Parnell (R) 46 (49)

The primary already occurred but the race was so close between incumbent Rep. Young and Palin-endorsed Lt. Gov. Parnell that the race has not been called. Absentee votes remain to be counted. If Young wins the primary, the seat is almost definitely lost due to Young’s pork barrel related corruption. If Parnell wins the primary, he starts with a decent lead.

I have no idea how Stevens improved over the past few weeks. He is now under indictment for pork barrel related corruption himself. He has been a figurehead in AK and very popular in the past. But after the indictment came down, the close race became a likely D pickup. Hopeful GOPers believe Stevens might drop out and let the AK GOP replace him in the race. But that probably overestimates Stevens’s commitment to the “team.” If Stevens gets cleared in his indictment, he might be able to win this seat.

So elevating Palin has not affected her approval rating and it seems to have helped McCain put AK in the bag.

Due to the appropriate amount of attention given to Gov. Palin’s speech last night (just scroll down), there has not been as much focus on Sen. McCain as one might expect. Since the speaker line-up tonight is full of less well known characters (Sen. Martinez (FL), Gov. Crist (FL), Gov. Pawlenty (MN)) than yesterday (Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani), the spot light will entirely be on Sen. McCain.

The reorganized RNC so far has done well to distance the current GOP from President Bush’s policies and to continue to “celebrity” concept on Obama’s lack of substance. The biggest hole left in the convention is a platform of what a McCain-Palin administration would look like.

Sen. McCain may fill that hole. He can talk about vetoing pork and earmarks, as he has before. He will undoubtedly talk about the dangerous times we live in and the importance of his foreign policy knowledge. He needs to talk about economic relief: middle class tax cuts, economic growth, importing prescription drugs, etc. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are well positioned to take a slightly more populist bent toward economic policies than the GOP has recently.

Finally, Sen. McCain should bring one or two new ideas to the podium and make sure the public internalizes them over the next two months. For example, he could elevate his energy policy to a grand theme: All of The Above. The overdone focus on drilling misses the politically stronger policy stance: drilling, exploration, alternative fuels, and nuclear energy. Gov. Palin noted that drilling alone is not the answer; it is part of the answer. The All of The Above energy policy puts the spotlight on Obama to explain why he wouldn’t use all of the options available. McCain has already talked in these terms, but using a large chunk of his speech would associate this policy with him the way ambiguous “change” is associated with Obama.

What are your thoughts on how McCain can win over 55% of Independents and 15% of Democrats? With the party ID gap where it is and the solid support of Republicans steady at over 90%, that’s the end goal.

That line also emphasized her youth. You don’t see Biden/McCain aged guys putting things on Ebay. She’s not going to win over the whole under 30 crowd, but that line shows how she can sound like she’s from the current generation rather than a past one. As Ben points out in a diary, Palin (like Obama) is too young to have internalized the 1960s culture wars (and of course McCain was not in country for them). It’s nice to see the country transition from those bitter feuds.

It’s been a long time coming. But the story of McCain’s rise from “dead” in the summer of 2007 has been validated during the roll call that just passed the 1,191 vote line.

Gov. Palin will be the big story tonight and for much of the rest of the campaign. But Sen. McCain’s victory in this primary is still a surprising story of success and proof of the effectiveness of sheer will.

Very few people get the honor of being the GOP nominee for President. McCain has earned it vote by vote. Congratulations Sen. McCain on your victory.

The McCain team is sending out poll results from a new American Viewpoint poll of 400 RVs. The campaign did not commission this poll.

Job Approval for Gov. Palin: 86%
Among Independents: 86%
Among Democrats: 75%

Overall:
McCain/Palin 57%
Obama/Biden 33%

Among Indies:
McCain/Palin 50%
Obama/Biden 37%

Voters who say Energy is Top Issue:
McCain/Palin 74%
Obama/Biden 18%

Who is more qualified, Palin or Obama:
Palin 30%
Obama 31%
Equal 29%

Does McCain chose of Palin make you more or less likely to vote for McCain:
More likely 56%
Less likely 15%

Other findings:

The key advantage Palin brings to the GOP team is an emphasis on the reform dynamic of bringing new ideas and thinking to Washington (+59% net agreement). This is followed by +53% net agreement that the selection makes Alaskans feel proud, increases to +89% net agreement with very conservative voters; +48% net agreement that the selection makes them excited about the pick, increases to +87% net agreement with very conservative voters; and net +36% that she has the qualifications to be Vice-President, +81% net agreement with very conservative voters.

The MSM could respond to the choice of Gov. Palin in several ways. It could focus on her history of fighting her own party on issues of corruption and her history of fighting large oil companies in a state where large oil companies own a sizable part of the economy. Or they could focus on her cultural background as a pro-lifer who is comfortable with guns. Most articles I’ve read since the selection describes Gov. Palin as the “pro-gun, pro-life conservative hockey mom” or some such. It could just as easily be the “popular reformist Governor of Alaska.” Neither is incorrect.

But Gov. Palin spent her time in office focused on pipelines, energy, ending corruption and kicking out the “good old boys” network that focused on pork and pay-to-play efforts. Gov. Palin is pro-life and supports gun rights, but those have not dominated her administration nor her policy efforts. The fact that the media focuses on abortion and guns says more about the media than it does about Gov. Palin.

I do not find it hard to understand why Sen. McCain liked and chose Gov. Palin. Gov. Palin is a reformer at heart. She is sincere about her focus on rooting out corruption, and she is willing to take on her own party (for example, by running against the sitting GOP GOV) in order to tackle the old system. She put her state above her party just as McCain and Lieberman have put the nation above their respective parties. When the list narrowed to Lieberman and Palin, it seems McCain decided to play it safe with the pro-life GOPer rather than take the even riskier proposition of inviting a fight at the convention over a pro-choice DEM.

Because Gov. Palin focuses on reform and because Sen. McCain chose her based on those reformist efforts, I expected the MSM to talk about her efforts to fight against large oil companies and to take out a corrupt GOV. Instead, they caricatured her as a female Jesse Helms focused on big guns and abortion. And so far, the McCain and Palin camps are losing this media fight. The talk is about her social views (which excite the base but won’t flip many swing voters) and not her leadership on reform and against corruption.

Last night (Tuesday), the speakers who talked about Gov. Palin focused on her reform efforts. I believe this is an indication that the McCain and Palin camps will push to change the debate. Gov. Palin could use her speech to counter the talk about her family and her social views. She could acknowledge Bristol’s fiance in the crowd and receive a thunderous, supportive applause from the crowd. She could compare her experience to Obama. But I don’t think she will.

Gov. Palin should talk about her time as Governor. She should talk about why she ran against Gov. Murkowski (R). She should talk about why the state GOP still doesn’t like her while she has 80% approval ratings. She should talk about her negotiations on the natural gas pipeline that went against the wishes of large oil companies. She should describe how she sold the new state airplane that her predecessor purchased. She should paint the picture of a Governor, a reformer, and an anti-pork activist.

Gov. Palin wins tonight if the talking heads are discussing what she has done, whether she was poised, and what her views are on issues. She loses if the talking heads spend the whole evening talking about Levi and Bristol. Ideally, Gov. Palin plays the role Sen. Gore did; she reinforces the overarching theme of the campaign to put “country first” by embracing a reformer with a record. At worst, she distracts the campaign and allows the debate to be about her family and social views which have little to do with her record as Governor or her credentials as a VP nominee.

One thing I enjoy about having the great opportunity to attend events like the RNC Convention is seeing how different things look and feel in person. Here are a couple things I never really internalized watching conventions on TV.

First, the TV interviews are often haphazard. It seems someone will walk by a TV booth and someone will grab them and say “hey, Mr. X, want to be FOX News?” Why else would someone like the Google CEO be interviewed at the RNC? But when I watch it on TV, it seems planned. Turns out, it is much more random than it looks.

Second, the convention is full of boring speakers. I guess this might not be a big surprise to most people. But I entirely understand why the major networks only cover one or two speakers each day. Most speakers are decent at giving a speech, but they cover very similar points without rousing passion. The exception so far is for the big name speakers: President Bush, The First Lady, Senator Fred Thompson, and Senator Joe Lieberman.

Third, the media makes stuff up. This is not news to many political activists or to anyone who has been quoted in a local newspaper. But it bears repeating. The treatment of Gov. Palin has been incredibly inaccurate on some major points. The 24 hour news stations pushed the idea that Palin was insufficiently vetted. Yet every piece of evidence shows that the McCain campaign knew about every piece of news that has hit the wire before they choose Palin. The news media did not know these things, and they seem to be presuming that the McCain campaign did not. Also, the current debate on whether Palin might have to withdraw as the VP nominee comes entirely from the media. There is no talk among delegates or anyone within the campaign that they have ever considered such a thing. It’s idle speculation based on nothing. Somehow, it is easier to tell how much the MSM makes stuff up when you are sitting here in person.

Fourth, much of the convention is not at the convention. This year seems a little bit different because Monday was canceled. But even ignoring Monday, the vast majority of the convention events are not at the Xcel Center. There are talks, panels, delegation events for each state, and even Google/RedState brunches. Since the convention itself occurs in the evening, most of the daytime is spent eating and talking to other people who live within the “bubble” of politics. The TV media doesn’t really cover these events, preferring to do talking head interviews inside the convention hall.

Fifth, there are no protesters in my world. I see these mobs of protesters on TV. And I know some other RedStaters have gone out in search of them and found them in clouds of tear gas. But if you drive into the city, park, and go the convention, you really don’t run into the big crowds. At most, you see a few people with signs and some people who are a bit under-dressed and perhaps in need of a shower but not the massive throngs of anarchists that seem to get splashed on the news.

Over night, four new polls were released showing Obama up 9, 7, 8, and 6 respectively. The Rasmussen Tracker jumped from Obama +3 the last two day to Obama +6. The other three national polls are not trackers.

Importantly, all four polls were taken after the DNC and after the Palin announcement. Contrary to the budding optimistic view that Palin stole the DNC bounce away (based on some movement in tracking polls), it seems Obama received a decent 6-8 point bounce.

The Palin pick is still recent and most people have not solidified their views of her; however, it seems the selection has not swung swing voters. As excited as conservative activists are, they were already willing to vote McCain if perhaps unenthusiastically. Palin may eventually help the fight for swing voters but showing competence in unscripted interviews, but she could end up being an electoral liability if she comes off as not knowing or understanding national issues. Fortunately, in the end, people don’t vote based on VPs.

[UPDATE 5:36 EDT] – Gallup Tracker sings the same song with an Obama +8 showing after two days of Obama +6. Obama actually hits 50% for the first time. The Convention Bounce has put Obama in his best position ever according to the Gallup Tracker.

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My friend Michael Bates has a writeup and some footage from a rally outside the Convention for families of our troops, including a video of Jon Voight (of American Carol) praising our military members.

I arrived in Minneapolis on Saturday morning and spent the last two days getting to know the area. A local friend showed me around town and the locals are very friendly and talkative. You know, Minnesota Nice.

Just driving around, you can feel the transition from blue collar factory town to new hip tech community. The city is known as a great place for young professionals. The arts are well funded and we have already had a media event at the new performing arts center, The Guthrie. The city is close to several gorgeous lakes. Overall, it is one of the few thriving northern cities in the country and you can feel that growth and transition just looking around down town.

Politically, MN is a swing state in 2008 with projections showing Obama winning 51-46. This is a recent change in political alignment in what historically has been one of the most leftist states in the country. MN has the longest streak of voting for Democratic Presidential candidates at 8 straight elections, beating NY and MA. That streak includes being the only state in 1984 to choose MN-native Mondale over President Reagan by a meagre .18%.

Due to the large number of Scandinavian descendants in this region (MN, WI, ND, and SD), the state is more pacifistic than other swing states. Anti-war sentiment is higher here than in other regions. An unscientific sample of yard signs and bumper stickers shows the war to be the favorite hobbyhorse of liberals in the area. And the planned protests at the RNC are almost all war related.

Perhaps due to the lack of war and peace issues at the state level, the GOP has made bigger gains there than at the Presidential level. In 2000, Gore beat Bush 48-45, and in 2004, Kerry won 51-48. In that same time period, party-switcher Norm Coleman (R) won a Senate seat in 2002 and is ahead for his reelection bid this year. And in 2002 and 2006, Tim Pawlenty (R) won the gubernatorial races by narrow margins.

The state is geographically dominated by the Twin Cities which house 3.2M of the 5.2M residents. The urban areas are typically liberal and most rural areas are Republican friendly. The exception is the Iron Range in northeastern MN which clings to a blue collar urban Democratic ideal and continues to elect Rep. Oberstar (D) to Congress. The swing region, which leans Democratic, is the Twin City suburbs. Pawlenty’s working class roots helped win over enough of these voters to win his elections while Norm Coleman’s successful stint as a Democratic Mayor of St. Paul attracted voters beyond what a “normal” Republican could.