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How Will the War in Gaza Influence the Outcome of the Presidential Election?

AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura

Israel’s war with Hamas and the rise of antisemitism in the United States have been taking center stage in American politics since the conflict started following Hamas' attacks on October 7. The latest iteration in the ongoing Israel/Palestinian issue has ignited fierce debate over the solution to the problem and the role the U.S. should —  or should not — play in the matter.

As the presidential election creeps ever closer, there have been a multitude of conversations surrounding how the conflict could impact the outcome of the race. While President Joe Biden struggles to play a balancing act to ease the concerns of the pro and anti-Israel crowds, former President Donald Trump has made his support of the Jewish state abundantly clear.

The findings of a recent poll seem to indicate that if certain trends hold, the Middle East issue will work more in Trump’s favor than his opponent's.

According to a Harvard CAPS-Harris survey, a striking 80 percent of registered voters expressed support for Israel over Hamas. The results of previous surveys have been similar, which led Mark Penn, co-director of the poll, to assert that “Support for Israel has not budged” even with the incessant protests that have been held on college campuses across the nation.

In this month’s poll, older age groups were much more likely to be supportive of Israel than younger respondents, though a clear majority of each age group supported Israel more than Hamas. More than 90 percent of those 65 years old and older and of those 55 to 64 said they support Israel more, while 85 percent of those 45 to 54 and three-quarters of those 35 to 44 said the same.

Support for Israel was the lowest among the youngest age groups. Pollsters found 64 percent of those 25 to 34 and 57 percent of those 18 to 24 said they support Israel more, while the rest of those age groups said they support Hamas more.

The poll’s results come as numerous pro-Palestinian protests have popped up on college campuses throughout the country. Students have set up encampments to protest for days at schools including Columbia and New York University.

The disconnect between the antics of the pro-Hamas activists demonstrating against Israel and national opinions on the conflict could easily work in Trump’s favor. This is especially true because the activists have not only protested in favor of the terrorist group but have also engaged in violence, threats, and other off-putting behavior that would alienate even those who are critical of Israel’s actions.

The encampments at Columbia University and others have only served to make the anti-Israel crowd politically radioactive, which means their demands that these universities divest from Israel are likely to fall flat.

Trump, in his typical Trumpian fashion, has capitalized on these developments, casting himself as a staunch ally of the Jewish state, a reality that is backed up by his record in office. In a recent post on Truth Social, he wrote: “STOP THE PROTESTS NOW!!!”

When he puts it in all caps, he really means it, apparently.

His remarks come amid a sharp rise in antisemitic incidents that have occurred since the start of the war in Gaza.

The post comes as the number of students and antisemitic agitators arrested at the nationwide demonstrations approached 900 since New York police removed an anti-Israel protest encampment at Columbia University on April 18.

On the other hand, Biden’s approach has been seen as milquetoast and wishy-washy. The president has, on several occasions, affirmed America’s support for Israel. But he has also sharply criticized the country’s military operations in Gaza and repeatedly clashed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The president has constantly called on Israel to let up on its effort to eradicate Hamas.

Biden’s approach to Israel has opened up an avenue of opportunity for his opponent, who has never wavered in his dedication to the Jewish state. Despite silly attempts on the part of Democrats and their close friends and allies in the activist media to portray him as an antisemite, it is clear which candidate unabashedly supports Israel. This dynamic could very well influence voters as they head to the ballot box.

While the war in Gaza is not as much of a priority as the economy, crime, education, and others, it is clear that Americans are still deeply concerned about the eventual outcome of the war. Trump’s stance could make him a more attractive option in November.

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