Iran’s Saturday attack against Israel has the airwaves and interwebs abuzz with speculation as to what is coming next in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Some have expressed fears that the situation could escalate into expanded military hostilities in the region.

As the war in Gaza continues in full force, Iran’s potential involvement has led to fears of a broader military conflict. Indeed, Germany and France have issued statements urging their citizens in Iran to flee the country amid concerns over an Israeli counterstrike.

However, there could be reason for hope that this situation won’t devolve into a hot war between Israel and Iran. White House spokesman John Kirby recently addressed reports indicating that the Iranian regime reached out to the Biden administration warning about the attack days before it launched drones, missiles, and rockets at the Jewish state.

During a press briefing, White House national security communications adviser John Kirby denied these claims, referring to them as “ridiculous” and “nonsense.”

“This whole narrative out there that Iran passed us a message with what they were gonna do is ridiculous,” Kirby told reporters at a briefing.

Kirby told reporters Iran had failed in its attack against Israel on Saturday, in which it launched hundreds of drones and missiles in response to an Israeli strike against an Iranian compound in Syria.

Kirby was adamant the United States was not given any advance warning about the time frame or targets involved, instead crediting the capabilities of Israel and its partners with intercepting most of the missiles.

“Can you imagine a world in which Iran would pick up the phone and say, ‘We’re about to try to shwack Israel with 300 cruise missiles and drones, we just wanted to let you know it’s coming and oh by the way, here’s what we’re going to hit,’” Kirby said.

However, whether Kirby’s denials are accurate, the Iranian regime did announce publicly that it intended to launch a strike against Israel in retaliation for its assault on Iranian military officials in Syria. It very clearly told the world what was about to happen.

On Thursday, Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said on Thursday that the regime would be responding to Israel’s attack. On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei repeated a promise to strike Israel.

Khamenei made the remarks at a prayer ceremony celebrating the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, saying the strike on its consular was akin to an attack on Iranian territory.

“When they attacked our consulate area, it was like they attacked our territory,” Khamenei said, in remarks broadcast by Iranian state TV. “The evil regime must be punished, and it will be punished.”

Sure, one could just assume these remarks were the usual saber-rattling that comes from Iran. But in this case, they were declaring that they would be seeking vengeance for the attack in Syria.

From where I sit, it seems to me that Iran’s attack was geopolitical theater. Israel took out some of the regime’s military officials, so Tehran had to do something to save face, or they would be seen as weak. However, Iran does not want the hot war that would undoubtedly happen if it targeted Israel with an attack that actually caused serious damage. As RedState’s Bonchie pointed out, such an outcome would be disastrous for the regime.

Perhaps this is why they telegraphed their attack nearly a week before it happened, knowing (or hoping) that the projectiles would be shot down by Israel and her allies. If the assault caused only minimal damage to the Jewish state, then the Israeli Defense Forces’ counteraction might not be severe enough to warrant a full-scale war. Indeed, shortly after the attack, the regime said the matter was “concluded.”

After launching a few hundred drones at Israel, Iran seems to have called the war off and headed for the showers. A statement released by Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations says the “matter” of Israel spreading IRGC terrorists all over Iran’s embassy in Damascus “can be concluded.”

Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!

Approaching the matter in this way allows Tehran to avoid displaying weakness while also avoiding a devastating war. I’m not the only one who believes this to be the case. The Daily Wire’s Jeremy Boreing expressed similar sentiments on X, noting that the U.S. and U.K. “are doing Iran a huge favor by shooting down” the projectiles Iran sent toward Israel.

US and UK are doing Iran a huge favor by shooting down these drones. In fact, it was probably part of Iran’s calculations - and why they gave so much warning.

They are likely praying the vast majority of this attack is thwarted. They get the street cred of launching it but…

— Jeremy Boreing (@JeremyDBoreing) April 13, 2024

Of course, none of this guarantees that a larger-scale military confrontation is off the table. Israel is going to retaliate. But given that Iran did not cause much damage, it makes more sense for Jerusalem to take a more measured response to the aggression.

Still, the modern history of the Middle East shows that anything could happen.